저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 인플레이션 재발과 금리 상승 신호를 근거로 경기침체가 아직 오지 않았지만 가까워지고 있다고 본다. 원자재 투자에 대해서는 채권·부동산·주식 대부분이 거품이거나 고점인 반면 원자재는 역사적 기준으로 아직 싸다고 판단하며, 은은 고점 대비 60% 하락, 설탕은 재난 수준이라고 언급한다. 농장 투자와 농산물 가격 상승을 거론한다. 주식시장에서는 미국 증시가 사상 최고치 부근이라 매력이 적고, 일본 증시는 은행의 대규모 통화 발행으로 신고가를 갱신할 가능성이 있다고 보았다. 다만 최근 일본 ETF는 매도했다고 밝혔다. 중국 증시는 현재 하락 중이다. 한국에 대해서는 38선이 개방되면 10~30년간 매우 흥미로운 나라가 될 것이라며 아시아에서 이주한다면 한국을 택하겠다고 말한다. 달러 패권에 대해서는 미국의 역대 최대 부채와 정치적 제재 가능성 때문에 장기적으로 약세를 전망하지만, 대안 통화는 아직 찾지 못했다고 한다. 위안화는 자본 통제로 국제통화 역할이 어렵다고 본다. 경기 측면에서는 2008~2009년 이후 미국이 역사상 가장 긴 호황을 누렸다는 점을 지적하며 좋은 시기가 끝나간다는 고전적 신호가 보인다고 말한다. 조언으로는 젊은이들이 좋아하는 일을 추구해야 행복하고 성공할 수 있다고 강조한다. 이 영상은 2023년 11월 기준 발언이므로 현재 시점의 예측으로 평가하기 어렵다.
다듬은 글
you see inflation coming back you see interest rates starting to go out you see various signs that have happened before but for whatever reason I would suspect that the recession is not here yet but it's getting closer Andy well if you look at that map you'll see how big China is you know China's got billion and billion four million million people and it has China is the only country in world history that's been on top three or four times Rome was great once Egypt was great once Britain was great once but China's been great three or four times it's also collapsed and had catastrophe three or four times but for whatever reason is the only country after being at the bottom for a few decades or centuries turns around and Rises to the top again but looking at that map I see the only country I would really think about would be Korea because once they open the 38th parallel the DMZ it's going to be an extremely exciting country for 10 or 20 or 30 years I mean I'm not doing it I mean Chinese is much much much more important but if I had to move to another country in Asia would probably be Korea because when the 38th parallel opens it's going to be very exciting got it I started my career in the late 90s and then I was actually a a Futures broker and then a a small partner of a small hedge fund in the early 2000s and you were our Commodities guy goto if you would and I took your advice in the sense of I became very interested in Commodities where are you on that specifically energy and specifically agricultural because he used to say all the farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis and the stock Brokers are going to be working for them I paraphrase that that was H what you would allude to where are you with that in that I look around the world uh at asset classes I know that bonds are not Bonds have been in a bubble B interest rates have never been this that low in recorded history so I have not much opportunity and bonds if you look at property in many countries it has been a bubble New Zealand Korea many many places property has been a bubble not everywhere obviously stocks well stocks are near alltime highs in much of the world so I don't find many great opportunities when things were at alltime highs the only asset class that's still cheap is that I know of is Commodities I mean Silver's down 60% from its all-time high sugar oh my gosh Sugar's a disaster so most Commodities many Commodities are still cheap on a historic basis and I do not know other asset classes where that is the case got it and would you specifically invest in the commodity itself or would you be looking at at the equity part of that well there are many ways to invest in commodity yes the best way of course is to qu your job buy some land and become a farmer extremely my wife would divorce me the price of the farm is going to go up the price of the commod the products are going to go up Etc if you like getting hot and dirty every day think about being a farmer yes no it is still accurate as far as I'm concerned but as you just pointed out it's not for everybody it's not for me I'm not going to become a farmer I'd fail that I'm sure I would would be hopeless at being a farmer but there are still many opportunities yes and as I say I don't know any other asset glass which is as attractive right now as Commodities got it now let's project now where we're at now and then moving forward as best as we can there's a lot of stuff going on there's a lot of change if you would it reminds me I did I was in high school when H the Cold War was going on and then when it fell if you would it kind of reminds me of that not so much well yeah I mean government's changing if you would in just a sea of change across the world what are what are your thoughts on where we're at right now specifically for the US the US economy and then also obviously you're bullish on the Asian economy or you wouldn't be there but yeah what do you what do you think of the US economy and what does this mean for the US well I'm not more bullish on Asia than I have the rest I mean the most of the world more or less follows the US markets or follows each other obviously the Chinese market is down at the moment for a variety of reasons but most markets usually work in tandem if you will to some extent anyway the US is near alltime High well I mean I'm I said I don't particularly like buying things at alltime highs there are some people who can do it and do it extremely well I am not one of those people I'm not very good at Market timing or short-term trading there are some people who are fabulous at it but as I look around the world Andy other than China well maybe Japan Japan is probably on its way to making new highs again you know CH Japan made its alltime high in 1990 that's not a typo you know it's over 30 years ago right and it look like it's on the way to making highs again the the bank of Japan is printing staggering amounts of money and our shares so Japan is probably got to I I for what it's worth I sold my Japanese ETFs not long ago I wish I hadn't but h a fit of weakness I did but they're still probably going to go up other than Japan and maybe China I don't see many stock markets in the world well I bought some shares in usbekistan recently there are dramatic changes taking place in usbekistan after Decades of communist disaster but other than a few places I don't see many stock markets right now for me for me to invest in got it so that leads me to another question is you have this thing going on which obviously you're aware I'm sure you're aware of is the bricks and they want to diversify get out of the US dollar which I find interesting because everybody wants to do that but it doesn't seem like anybody's able to do that so what what are your thoughts on that what are your thoughts on the US dollar again we hear this a lot I mean I'm I'm a long-term bear but it doesn't seem like again there's there's a better alternative currently well throughout history and no International currency has been on top more than 100 150 years or so the US has been on on top for a while but there are fundamental reasons for it to change finally the US is the largest debt nation in the history of the world well I'm not the only person who knows that you know the debts going higher and higher every day in the US so some people for fundamental reasons are trying to find an alternative a competitor but also for political reasons I mean Washington though if you have the international currency it's supposed to be new anybody can use it for anything if it's a real International currency but Washington is changing those rules Washington is if they don't like you they cut you off many people say wait a minute wait a minute even out their friends they could cut us off and the world is saying that's not the way it's supposed to be and so many people are now looking for something to compete with the US dollar but to your point I don't know what it's going to be yet I I search every day because I know I have to find the new currency whatever it is theoretically the Chinese rembe should be the currency but it's a block currency so you cannot have the international currency with a blocked currency that people cannot buy and sell so I don't know what it's going to be if you know Andy please do not announce it please send me a private email I'm looking what will be the new competitor do you think do you think that new currency would be a precious metal or do you is that just never going to happen well that was a long time it has happened often in the past you know at time silver in much of the world and the US was founded on the silver standard 1792 or what it was when they pass that law silver I mean Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver he wasn't sold for 30 pieces of gold because silver was the standard in those days so something has been and can be in the future but there are problems with silver or gold or things like that so I don't see it really happening maybe if we get desperate we will grab for gold or something or silver but no too many complications one of which is that if things start going wrong politicians change the rules you say we're on the gold standard but then if if that causes a problem for a politician they change the rules right not the way it's supposed to be with an international currency well what I know is it seems like again living here in the US it seems like there's a sign that signs are pointing to that we're at or near a recession and it seems like yeah what are your thoughts on that currently what we're what we're going through or about to go through well our last economic problem was 2008 2009 that's the longest in American history of prosperity never happened this long I mean why can't it go on 50 years why does it have to be just a few years never has been I can certainly see the I'm I'm not I don't I'm not talking about a recession today but I can say the classic signs that things are coming to an end that good times are coming to an end you see inflation coming back you see interest rates starting to go out you see various signs that have happened before but for whatever reason I would suspect that the recession is not here yet but it's getting closer Andy it's getting closer look out the window you might see it I'm in Singapore so I'm too far my last question is and I asked this ad to a couple of different Traders mentors that I've had and come across and had a chance to chat with it is and you wrote a book on this actually is for your daughters what advice or a couple of nuggets of advice would you give a younger person in their 20s just I guess coming out into the world what advice would you give them as far as I would break that up into two questions one is investment advice the other piece advice is life advice well I guess they more or less can go together the it's extremely important that people pursue what they love even as an investor I mean if you love automobiles you know more about it than I do and you might see and find investment opportunities because you know so much about it whatever it is but that's where you pursue you you should pursue your career if you will with what you love not what your teachers say or not what your parents say or your friends figure out what you love the most and pursue it whether it's academics profession whatever it is stay with what you love and you will be happy and you will be successful the people who are most successful the people who do what they love and Andy if they're not rich they don't care they're happy they're very very happy so they're they're quite fine well that's great advice Jim I just again want to thank you so much for your time I'd love to have you on again hopefully in the near future but again thank you so much for your time and you had a great impact on a young Andy Mallette well thank you Andy I'm flattered I make many mistakes don't worry so be careful because I have made many mistakes in my wife but I look forward to doing it again sometime thank you excellent thank you Jim thank you thank you thank you byebye
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