저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK은 GPU 대비 ASIC·특화칩 확산으로 AI 사이클이 초기이며 AMD·브로드컴에 긍정적이라 봄. 엔비디아 매도는 팔란티어·코인베이스 등으로 재배분한 결과이고 후회하지 않는다고 함. 테슬라는 5년간 박스권 상단에 있어 로보택시·SaaS형 마진(85%) 인식 확산 시 돌파 가능성이 있다고 주장. 다만 판매 부진·EV 세액공제 종료 등 역풍과 정규 장기 낙관론이 혼재. 진행자 설명은 제외.
다듬은 글
It sounds to me like you're suggesting that you think that several of the hyperscalers are simply spending too much and that the return on that invested capital is going to be lower than maybe some investors think. Now, if they are spending too much, they're spending it on chips from Nvidia, [clears throat] which you have a much smaller position today than you had just a few years ago.
Do you regret selling as much of Nvidia as you did, which by most accounts cost you more than a billion dollars? So, that's taking a look at uh what that sale did, all other things equal. But what did we put uh that that cash into? Uh we put it into companies like Palunteer, which I think since that time has done better than Nvidia, like Coinbase, which was under SEC attack at the time, very opportunistic.
Uh and so was it even Stephen? I don't I don't know. Probably not 100%. But I think we landed on some of the names that were really going to take off uh based on again uh what the new news was going to be. Um and we do think if you look at our big ideas uh you'll see one section where we show uh that GPUs generally are going to come up against the uh competition more competition in and of themselves.
We we're seeing the hyperscalers u moving towards uh developing their own chips. We're seeing more specialized chips. Uh certainly Tesla is moving in that direction and we think AS6 are going to take share from uh GPUs. Uh so you know I I don't regret it. uh you'll see in our top 10 in uh ARK out of recognition that we believe this AI cycle is still in early days.
Uh AMD is in our top 10. And of course the shocking thing there is it's it's uh it's doing very well in GPUs especially for small language models relative to Nvidia that is uh not as well in large language models. But the shocking thing there also is that um it's taken huge share from Intel up to 40% of the CPU market right now.
Uh which you know I grew up as it was fighting for 10 15%. So and then the other thing with AMD is uh much less memory required uh with AMD's chips just the way uh they've constructed them. So again there are lots of puts and takes here. Yeah. Uh Broadcom too, right? You like Broadcom today more than Nvidia.
Is that is that fair to say? Well, Broadcom is a smaller position in the portfolio and you're right, we've started building it. Uh and it is because it will probably be one of the prime beneficiaries of the shift from GPUs to A6. Now, over time, I have steered away from Broadcom because it has been a consolidator.
Uh I'm not as an investor personally uh not attracted to growth by acquisition and and Broadcom has been acquisition prone. Uh we do think though that the the ASIC world is going to grow fast enough where it won't need to make acquisitions in the future. Tesla continues to be one of the most watch stocks in the market not just because it is an electric vehicle company but because it sits as an intersection of innovation, disruption and investor psychology.
And this week, Tesla has seen a mixed performance as markets digest earnings expectations, regulatory shifts, and strategic push back. And the story today is as much about Tesla stock behavior as it is about the broader narrative shaping its price. Tesla stock has been under pressure recently, trading in a tight range after a strong earnings report last month.
Traders saw a modest uptick in price, but shares remain down roughly 6 to9% for the year. Despite the optimism around growth initiatives like robo taxis and autonomous tech, retail investors continue to buy keeping Tesla among one of the most purchased names despite broader selling in the tech sector which is which says a lot about Tesla's reputation and even Elon Musk's and what's striking right now is how Tesla's valuation still remains elevated compared to earnings expectations training at more than 200 times forward 2026 earnings.
Now, that is a lot because Tesla has not achieved a great deal in the past 2 to 3 years. And this leads some analysts to question whether the stock's price reflects realistic near-term earnings or future potential of what Tesla can do and what Elon Musk can do as a whole. Now, when it comes to robo taxis and autonomy, one of the biggest narratives driving forward sentiment and hype around Tesla stock is the robo taxi vision because that can really at least triple Tesla's valuation from here.
Tesla began limited robot taxi operations in Austin as part of its autonomous ride hailing strategy and expanding that network is seen as a long-term growth catalyst. However, regulatory and safety scrutiny around terms like autopilot and full self-driving have become a headwind for Tesla. Tesla now has to adjust its marketing language in California to avoid a temporary suspension of licenses, underscoring how regulatory environments can directly affect investor confidence in stock performance.
Tesla is your largest holding. Uh 10% waiting. The stock's done nothing over the past 12 months. Why? Well, I do think there's a bit of a tugofwar between the bulls and the bears. That's always the case. Uh it has been, if you look at it from a basing point of view, it's been in a base uh very it's a a wide base, but for about five years.
And I remember I think it was on your show, Scott, one time I made the uh point that wow, this has been a very long base. I think back then it was six years. Uh now we've had five years. We're at the top near the top of that range. And we do think robo taxis are going to break it out. Uh we think that as more analysts uh do the modeling and see that we're now talking about a company uh with 15% gross margins but robo taxis recurring revenue model software as a service kind of model 85% margins for that kind of business.
Uh we think that more and more analysts are going to understand how profound this model is going to change. Now when it comes to Tesla's stock there are two things that drive Tesla stock up. either its performance or or based on Elon Musk. Elon Musk himself remains central to the Tesla investment thesis.
For better or for worse, his personal network is rapidly climbing, largely tied to his Tesla and SpaceX shares and prediction market suggest a significant chance he could become the world's first trillionaire within the next year or so. A narrative that whether you love it or hate it fuels attention and speculation.
Now if Elon Musk says something contro controversial or if it somehow looks like he's giving more attention to SpaceX and some other companies somehow Tesla stock will get affected whether it should or not irrespective of Tesla's performance as a company and Elon Musk's comments on autonomy and new ventures like expanded AI and hardware innovation often move the stock independently from fundamentals.
Tesla's push on self-driving chips and AI platforms has even been highlighted as a potential secret weapon that could unlock future revenue streams beyond just the car sales. Now, when it comes to retail investors and sentiment, Tesla is uniquely held by a significant retail base, roughly 40% of its shares are owned by individual investors, a figure which is far above most major tech companies.
The strong retail position helps cushion downside and keep liquidity high. Retail traders often treat Tesla differently than traditional value stocks, focusing on narrative, long-term vision, and community conviction. That's why even during wide declines, many investors continue to add Tesla to their positions, viewing it as a core long-term holdings.
We are very focused on, you know, more pure play, uh, future winners. I'm not saying the Mag 6 won't win. uh in many ways they will uh but they certainly any company that is in the broad-based benchmarks and has risen to the top has has gotten there because of past performance and a certain DNA that worked uh during the last 20 years or so.
We think there's so much disruption happening now, technologically enabled disruption. Uh some that will benefit, some that will not benefit uh the mag six. So um we are much more focused on you know the the companies that are not as well known but are going to benefit enormously from uh from the year ahead and uh the years ahead.
And and I will say last year the market starting to broaden out away from the mag six. Uh we outperformed we're in the top 5% I think four of our uh five uh four of the top five ETFs by Morning Star and even for the last 3 years we're in the top 5%. So I think the market is beginning to understand what we've been trying to say for for for a long time now.
Now, when it comes to Kathy Wood, one of Tesla's most outspoken bulls has long been Kathy Wood of Arc Invest. She had a great time in 2020 and 2021, but since then, it's not been a great time for her. But while Ark has trimmed Tesla's position at times as part of portfolio rotation, reallocating into other frontier techs like digital assets, Kathy Wood hasn't hasn't abandoned her high conviction stance on Tesla.
Historically, Katy Kathy Wood has argued that Tesla's robot taxi operations and autonomy could unlock massive future earnings, suggesting valuation targets that are multiple times higher than today's levels if those technologies deliver. This kind of conviction helps Tesla stock on the radar of long-term growth investors even when the short-term performance is still lackluster.
And the fact that ARK has trimmed Tesla while boosting positions in blockchain linked equities show shows how long-term investors are navigating broader macro forces while still valuing Tesla's growth potential. And beyond narrative and sentiment, delivery volumes and sale data have raised concerns.
Weakness in China, Europe, and North America has dampened some enthusiasm as deliveries in key markets have declined year-over-year. A trend that if persistent could challenge topline growth assumptions. The expiration of EV tax credits in the US has also added pressure eliminating incentives that helped spur purchase and potentially slowing demand going forward.
Now even when people didn't have a lot of money and EVs were not the best thing to buy at the time. The EV tax credits really helped people to buy and it really helped the demand go forward. So where does Tesla stock go from here? Right now, the stock sits at a crossroads between short-term performance headwinds and long-term growth narratives.
Robo taxi expansion, self-driving technology, and AI related innovation remain key catalyst. Regulatory clarity and delivery momentum will also be critical to sustaining investor confidence. And meanwhile, retail conviction and long-term bulls like Kathy Wood ensure Tesla stays in the conversation, not just as a car maker, but as a technology force in transportation's future.
Tesla can execute on autonomy, expand robo taxis, and grow revenue beyond vehicle sales. Current skeptics will have to re-evaluate, but investors will be watching every earnings report, regulatory filing, and tweet from Elon Musk because with Tesla, the story always evolves. Thank you so much for watching, guys. Please hit the like button and do subscribe. It really helps.
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