저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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한줄 결론: 미국 1인당 GDP는 20세기 내내 매 10년마다 상승했지만 주식시장은 수십 년 단위로 정체와 급등을 반복하므로, 투자자는 군중 심리 대신 기업 가치를 객관적으로 따져야 한다. [미국 경제와 주가의 괴리] 20세기 미국 1인당 GDP는 약 610% 상승했고, 1930년대를 포함해 모든 10년 단위에서 상승했다. 다우지수는 1900~1921년 66→71로 거의 움직이지 않았고, 1921~1929년 71→381로 급등했다. [대공황기와 장기 정체] 1929년 9월 381에서 1948년 말 약 180으로 반토막 났다. 경제는 이 기간에도 성장했다. 1948~1965년에는 180→약 1000으로 상승했고, 1965~1981년에는 다시 약 1000→865 수준으로 하락·정체했다. [1900~2000년 총정리] 100년간 다우는 약 180배 상승했다. 상승기 약 43.75년과 정체기 약 56.25년으로 나뉘며, 정체기 56년 동안 다우는 몇 백 포인트 하락했다. [투자자 행동 분석] 투자자는 과거 수익을 보고 따라 들어가 가격을 밀어 올리고, 손실이 나면 시장을 외면한다. 1970년 연금은 신규 자금의 100% 이상을 주식에 넣었지만, 주가가 싸진 1978년에는 9%만 투입했다. [버핏의 1950년대 사례] 1950년대 초 2배 이익(PER 2배) 수준의 건전한 기업이 많았고 당시 금리는 약 2.5%였다. 캔자스시티 생명보험은 PER 3배 미만으로 거래되어 기대수익률이 35%에 달했지만, 대리점 직원 역시 주식을 팔지 않으려 했다. [1964~1981년 정체] 다우는 1964년 864에서 1981년 865로 17년간 사실상 제자리였다. 이 기간에도 국민 생활 수준은 향상되었다. [인터넷 버블 경고] 수익 전망이 없는 인터넷 기업이 수십억 달러에 거래된 것은 버블이다. 헤르브 스타인의 말처럼 계속될 수 없는 것은 끝난다. 1억 주에 100달러면 시가총액 100억 달러인데, 이를 정당화하려면 다음해 7~8억 달러 이익과 이후 연 10% 이상의 성장이 필요하다. [핵심 메시지] 좋은 결과를 얻으려면 군중을 따르지 말고, 기업 전체를 산다고 생각하며 가치를 객관적으로 평가하라. 이를 위해 필요한 것은 머리보다 기질이다. [출연자 전망] 장기적으로 미국 경제와 증시는 잘 될 것이지만, 큰 파도가 반복될 것이다. 단기 전망은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
unbelievable century for the United States the GDP per capita and that's the way to think of this per capita sometimes they talk about our GDP versus Europe's but if their population is the same every year and ours goes up 1% you've got a you know in the end that you got to have a divisor as well as the numerator and so GDP per capita in the 20th century in the United States one up six hundred and ten percent actually qualitatively it when I'm far more than that because you can't really measure you know certain things in medicine or whatever it may be and the improvements but just on a quantitative basis it went up every single decade including the decade of the 30s so here you had a hundred years when basically the US citizenry was getting was improving their lot decade by decade by decade the 30 it was up 13 percent best decade was World War two the nine to the 40s some 36 percent the worst decade was the first world war so he kept sometimes the analogy you can get in trouble on analogies but in any event it was it was a huge period interestingly enough there were six big periods in there for the stock market in both directions there were three big bull markets from 1900 to 1921 the Dow went from 66 to 71 less than a 10% move in 20 years less than half a percent a year you got dividends too but a half so it didn't move from 21 to 29 as you point out it when it went from 71 to a high of 381 in September of 1929 well 500 percent well obviously the cotton well being in the country didn't go up five hundred percent during that period and the well being in the company country went up a whole lot more than ten percent during that first twenty-one years so yeah this very uneven development from nineteen from September 1929 until the end of 1948 the Dow one from 381 to about a hundred and eighty was cut in half and that was 18 long years and yet the per capita GDP was moving right up during this whole period where the economy was doing crime for 48 to 65 the Dow went again from about 180 up to close to a thousand again five for one which was far outstripping it from 65 to 81 the Dow went down literally well again per capita TV and then we've had this last period where it's gone up terrifically if you take the whole hundred years it went up a hundred and eighty for one every thousand dollars became one hundred eighty thousand but forty three and a quarter year two forty three and three quarters years were those three big huge bull markets and fifty six and a quarter years with periods of stagnation all in an economy that was doing fine you know year after year after year fifty six and a quarter years net the Dow was down a couple hundred points during that period and the other 43 and three quarters years made up the rest of this move from sixty six to eleven thousand someone the Dow so he excited yourself how could it be that you could have a country it was doing better and better and better and better citizens were living every every generation was living better than the one the preceded but you had these huge changes big gains a few times long periods of stagnation twenty years I mean that's a long time to do nothing the answer is that investors behave in very human ways which is they get very excited during bull markets and they look in the rearview mirror and they say I made money last year I'm gonna make more money this year so this time I'll borrow you know or or the neighbor says you know I wasn't in last year when that neighbor was dumber than I I made a lot of money so I'm gonna go in this year's they're always looking in the rearview mirror and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see a lot of money having been made in the last few years they plow in and they just push and push and push on prices and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see no money having been made they just say this is a lousy place to be so they don't care what's going on in the underlying business and it's it's astounding but that's that makes for a huge opportunity just huge opportunity I mean I lived through roughly half in an investing sense about half that period and I've had that long period of stagnation from 48 I mean from 65 to 80 to 17 years I wrote an article for Forbes 1979 I just said how can this be pension funds in the in 1970 put a hundred and some percent of their new money in stock because they were wild about stocks then they got a lot cheaper and they put our record low in nine percent of their net new money in a 1978 when stocks for way cheaper people behaved very peculiarly in terms of the reactions because they they're human beings and they they get excited when others get excited they get greedy when others get greedy they get fearful one other get fearful and they'll continue to do so and you will you know you will see things you won't believe in your lifetime and securities markets and the country will do very well over time but you will see these huge waves and if you can stay objective throughout that if you can detach yourself temperamentally from the crowd you get very rich and you won't have to be very bright I mean it I'm sure you are but but you know it doesn't take brains it takes temperament it takes the ability to sit there and look at something when I started out in nineteen fifty I would go through and find things at two times earnings and they were perfectly decent businesses and people wanted jobs at those companies and everybody knew they were gonna be around and they wasn't behind with two times earnings and that's when interest rates were two and a half percent you know I went to the I started selling securities when I was 21 and I Kansas City Life Insurance Company happened to be a fairly prominent company in Omaha and the policies they sold you if you're buying life insurance from them had a built in an assumption of two percent interest the stock of Kansas City Life was selling it less than three times Ernie you were getting thirty five percent if you bought the stock no question about the soundness of the company I went to the local agent I thought he'll I hope it will sell him a few shares of stock I mean the guy will understand he's got his whole life invested in this company I went the local agent who'd been with them for twenty years and as the name was most as a mr.
mousses and you know you're selling these policies with two percent you may even have a few members of your own family and you can buy into this company whose paycheck you depend on every month and you know and whose future you your or beneficiaries of these life policies depend on and who you're selling them you know a two percent investment on and you get thirty five percent on your money you know stocks aren't any good and I couldn't I couldn't sell you know as well as he sells but I mean well you have to start with that but but it just blew me away it blew me away I thought sometimes I used to wonder if I was nuts you know that but those things the same thing happened I mean in 1964 the Dow closed at eight 864 at the end of 1981 seventeen years later it closed at 865 it moved one point in seventeen years now it's not a big move and that you can't believe the how discourage people were by that but during that period you know people were living better so things can go on a long time that don't make sense and but they do come to an end I mean the internet thing I mean you had these companies selling for many billions of dollars that had no really frankly no prospects of making any money that's a that's a bubble but herb Stein one time said anything that can't go on forever will end but think about that and particularly think about it next time you're trying to do something just because the stocks gone up a whole lot you know man your neighbors make money or something it you've got to be it's just had to sit and think objectively and think about will I buy this whole business it's an internet companies got 100 million shares out is selling 100 that's 10 billion dollars is it worth 10 billion dollars if it's worth 10 billion dollars it's got to be able to give you you know seven or eight hundred million next year and if it doesn't give you seven or eight hundred million next year it has to give you maybe ten percent more than that the year after and continue to there aren't a lot of businesses that can do that and people just go crazy and of course it's fun I mean it's you know it's like that sign they put in doctors offices and says avoid hangovers stay drunk you know that mean it's it's just so much fun to keep playing but you got to do sensible things to get to get good results yeah yeah actually
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