Tom Lee vs. Mike Wilson in the Clash of Bulls vs. Bears

요약 보기

결론: 현 시장은 약세장이 계속되는 중이며 하반기 지수는 하락, 실적 리세션 가능성이 크다는 비관적 관점이 우세하다. [시장 구조·랠리 성격] 4분기 랠리는 중국 재개장 기대 속 금융·산업재·에너지·소재 등 구경제 중심으로 미움받는 랠리였다. 현재 랠리는 AI·기술 혁명에 대한 선호로 주도되며 사람들이 많이 보유하려는 종목 중심이다. 지수 가격은 작년 12월 초 수준과 비슷하며 기술주만 크게 오른 상태다. [유동성·매크로 근거] 올해 상승의 핵심 동인은 글로벌 유동성 개선과 약세 달러라고 봤다. 약세 달러 흐름은 이제 역방향으로 전환되고 있다고 언급했다. 3월 은행 파산 이후 FDIC와 연준의 유동성 공급이 랠리를 뒷받침했다고 평가했다. 비트코인은 올해 60% 상승한 것으로 언급됐다. [지수·하반기 전망] 펀더멘털은 현재 주가 수준을 지지하지 않는다고 봤다. 하반기에는 장세가 더 거칠어지고 지수는 하락할 가능성이 크다고 전망했다. [Tom Lee 측 낙관 근거] 강세장은 벽을 타고 오른다는 관점으로, 부채한도·인플레이션·지역은행 등 우려에도 기업 실적이 견조하다고 봤다. 1분기 실적 시즌이 좋았고 가이던스 하향도 없었으며 재고 조정이 끝났다고 판단했다. 채권시장이 연착륙을 시사해 주식에 긍정적이라고 봤다. [엔비디아·빅테크] 엔비디아는 올해 100% 이상 상승했으며 실적 발표 후 30% 랠리는 미래 현금흐름 재평가였다고 설명됐다. 팬(FANG)·빅테크는 임금 인플레와 생산성 문제를 해결하는 수단으로 Tom Lee 측이 최선호 섹터로 꼽았다. [비관 측 리스크] 주가 상승은 실적이 아닌 멀티플 확장(100배 수준 재평가)에 의한 것이라고 봤다. 6~8개 빅테크 중 약 2개만 괜찮고 나머지는 경기 둔화와 2분기 이후 매출 둔화에 노출된다고 봤다. 스프레드(S&P 대 동일가중 S&P)는 1999년 12월 이후 최대 수준으로 벌어졌다. [시장 폭(breadth)] 산업재·임의소비재·헬스케어에도 양호한 폭이 있고 올해 빅테크 외 약 200개 종목이 지수를 상회한다는 반론이 제기됐다. 비관 측은 지수는 낙관, 내부 지표(breadth·리더십)는 비관을 가리킨다고 해석했다. [결론적 입장] 실적 리세션이 현재 컨센서스보다 훨씬 나쁠 것이며 지금은 종목 선별 게임이라고 봤다. 두 진영은 실적 전망(컨센서스 대비 낙관 여부)에서 근본적으로 대립했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. our call really hasn't changed uh you know we're very disciplined on price uh as you know we we got tactically bullish last fall at 3 500 because that was a good price and now we're of course back to the high end of the range and that's not a good price uh and that's at the s p level that's not really what's been interesting over the last six or seven months as you know what's been interesting is what's going on under the surface um I would say in the fourth quarter that was a very hated rally because it was led by kind of the old economy financials Industrials energy materials it was all based on you know the China reopening story which was legitimate and technology stocks obviously disappointed and they did not trade well in the fourth quarter so it was a hated rally because that's what people own now of course the s p is trading at the same price it was in early December when we got cautious again and Tech is obviously going to the moon and now this rally is love because these you know this is what people want to buy it's what people want to own is a lot more interesting and you know kind of exciting to own Ai and technological Revolution and it is to hold some those old economy stock it's you know well what do I want to own this long term so it's just an interesting development we would characterize this as the bear Market is continuing okay this is what bear markets do they they're designed to fool you confuse you make you do things you don't want to do Chase things at the wrong time probably sell them at the wrong time and the overriding we think the overriding driver okay of this year's rally has been increased liquidity liquidity has improved dramatically both on a global scale and the weaker dollar is help that's going the wrong way now again and then of course ironically the banking failures that happened in March led to an injection of liquidity from the FDIC and the fed and we think those things have really conspired to drive the market I mean nobody talks about the pente crypto is up 60 this year okay and then the next one of course is the is a tech world so this is what's going on we think that the fundamental case does not support you know we're rare stocks are trading today whether it's at the index level or at the single stock level and the second half is going to be a bit choppier and probably downward in the index why do you think it can continue Tom well we know bull markets climb a wall of worry um and we know that there's a lot of things that we visibly worry about including debt ceiling inflation the FED Regional Banks but I think the message that's come out in the last couple of months is companies have been incredibly resilient you know they manage costs really carefully they've been selective in how they manage prices they've been really good at targeting customers and I think that's what's paying off you know they had a great first quarter earnings season and as you know at some of these conferences they haven't been cutting guidance in fact I think they've de-stocked so I think they're still upside to earnings that's one positive story and the second of course is positioning because people really did rage sell last year but we know that the bond market is sort of signaling a softer Landing than many were expecting I think that's positive for equities so you think there's still going to be a Chase to come at least as it relates to Tech because you've gotten a Year's worth of gains in these stocks and in some cases you gotten like five years worth of gains it's been quite remarkable and and you know exactly what I'm alluding to the the fact that Nvidia and stocks like that up 100 year-to-date plus and don't seem to want to let up yeah uh I mean I think what's interesting about Nvidia is that it this was not a widely shorted stock into the results so that 30 rally was really the market recognizing they have to reprice the Future cash flows I think that's pretty true for most of the Fang trade you know one of the reasons we thought it would be our top sector pick this year was that all this wage inflation and need to boost productivity was going to be solved by these fan companies and that ultimately translates into better than expected growth I think that's really the thesis and it sort of explains why paying you know has has really LED this year but I I don't find them actually expensive stocks well not necessarily not at all in fact it kind of sets us up where it's probably inevitable now because what's happening is you're you're basically forcing people into these stocks at bad prices now um I mean you know the valuations last fall on these stocks in particular was extremely attractive and if you look at the performance of all these names with the exception perhaps of the one this week which you know earnings are going up the earnings are not driving these stocks it was 100 multiple expansion which goes back to our liquidity questions so look the price is wrong in our view because the earnings are probably going to be wrong for most of these stocks not all of them but most of them and so from here we think it is still a stock picking game and of those six seven eight stocks my guess is two of them will probably be okay and the other ones will not because they are the economy okay they can't avoid the economic slowdown and the Top Line slowdown that we see in the second half of this year wow the Divergence though between you know Fang and some of the others in the rest of the market doesn't concern you I've cited some of the numbers that are out and you've seen them yourself I'm sure bespoke the three-month performance spread between the s p and the equal weight s p the widest it's been since December of 99 we all know what happened in 2000 and the point that is you know the intent of this data Tom it doesn't make you a little nervous oh it does Scott because you know Market breadth is important to confirm a trend but but I also think it's it's explainable I think there are some binary events that naturally would make people cautious like this debt ceiling uh it's hard to say how do you find equilibrium price today one thing that we pointed out to our clients this morning was that when you look at Industrials and consumer discretionary there's actually quite a lot of good Market breath well above the s p overall and tech expang and and even Healthcare so I think Roots actually have more performance underneath and as as visible I think a lot of people started too Clips saying it's it's just Fang and nothing else there's roughly 200 stocks outside of tank that are outperforming this year that's actually not bad I think there's you could debate this one way or the other meaning when you make a market low you typically do have you know severely negative breath that is a good sign however the index is usually down with it so we think where we are is the index is telling you things are Rosy things are fine and breath is telling you otherwise and then when we put our fundamental overlay on top of that which is you know we're way out of consensus now on the earnings front then we can make the conclusion that the internals right the breath as being one of those but the internals and the leadership is telling you that growth is going to be a problem in the second half of this year whether that's an economic recession or not doesn't it we think it's going to be an earnings recession that's way worse than what people are currently modeling and look I want to go back to the beginning of the year you know you guys are good readers of our reports you remember in the beginning of the year I was somewhat nervous that everyone was in the same camp at that point we were our view is very consensus on the Fire and Ice you know the tightening and then the Slowdown and so we were trying to figure out how could how could everybody be right that doesn't work and then so what we've done now is we've worked off that oversold condition and more importantly now I would say the consensus is actually optimistic at earnings again and that's just where we completely disagree