저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 피터 린치는 장기적으로 주식이 채권·현금보다 나을 것이라 보며, 기업 이익 성장을 따라가는 장기 투자와 재무상태표 확인을 강조한다. 투자 원칙: 보유 이유를 11살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 있어야 하며, '오를 것 같아서'는 좋은 이유가 아니다. 나이 기준 자산배분 규칙은 개인 상황에 따라 다르므로 무의미하다고 본다. 자산 비교: 머니마켓펀드는 약 1.7~1.6% 수익(세금 40%), 10년물 국채는 약 4.7%(세금 40%)인 반면 주식은 향후 10년간 이보다 훨씬 나을 것이라 주장한다. 따라서 일정 부분 주식 보유를 권한다. 주식 본질: 주식은 복권이 아니라 회사 지분이며, 기업 이익이 늘면 주가도 오른다. 미국 기업 이익은 2차대전 이후 약 40배 늘었고 주가도 약 40배 상승했다. 재무 분석: 투자자들이 재무상태표를 보지 않는 것이 흔한 실수다. 현금이 많고 부채가 없는 회사는 파산 가능성이 거의 없다. 개인 순자산 계산과 같은 방식으로 기업을 분석하라고 조언한다. 매도 원칙: 성장주는 10년·20년 성장 스토리를 기준으로 보유하고, 주가가 비싸 보인다는 이유로 너무 일찍 파는 것이 가장 큰 실수다(Toys R Us, Home Depot 사례). 경기순환주는 상황이 나아질 때 매도한다. 시장 전망: 경기 침체는 9번 있었고 대체로 고용 약 2% 감소 수준이었다. 현재 침체는 비교적 완만하며, 미국 경제를 상대로 베팅하지 않겠다고 말한다. 일본은 은행 시스템 문제와 잘못된 정책으로 12년간 침체를 겪었지만 미국은 다르다고 본다. 기술주는 아직 이른 단계이며 현금에 가까운 업계 선두 기업을 살펴보고 있다고 밝힌다. 과거 시장 비교: 현재 약세장은 1990년 약세장과 유사하며, 1981~82년과 1973~74년 시장의 요소도 섞여 있다고 본다. 정부 재정적자는 경기 완충 역할을 하므로 긍정적이라고 평가한다. 투자자 조언: 보유 기간을 명확히 하고, 여러 펀드를 두고 성과가 부진한 쪽에 추가 투자하는 식으로 균형을 유지하며, 장기간 인내하라고 권한다.
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I think the same rules applied 50 years ago applied five years ago applied 20 years from now first of all you have to know what you own whether it's a fund or a stock you have to have a reason for it and you ought to be able to explain to an 11 year old in two minutes or less why own it and this sucker is going up is not a good reason I've tried that one it's not doesn't work basically you look now you have three choices if you're investor you can put your money in money market fund and get one seven one five one six and it's taxed at 40 rate or you can buy a 10-year Treasury and get four seven that's taxed at forty percent rate or you can have some equities and I think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so I would have some of my money now it's up to the person to decide how much they want to have the stock market for some people 10 is aggressive for some people 50 is the right mind it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you're 25 you should be 100 and you're 45 you should be 50 if you're 60 you should be zero and it is burping a lot I know what the rules are in people at 60 but they that I hate those rules I think they're pathetic why are you confident that Sox will be a lot higher in 10 years well they're not lottery tickets I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think companies gonna make a lot more money in 10 years a lot more money 20 years and that's that's why they go up that's the only reason some companies don't do well xeroxes make lots less money than they did 30 years ago it's a lot less more companies earning a lot more money than they were and that's why stocks go up corporate profits going up 40 fold since World War II stock market's up 40 fold it's 25 years since you started running Magellan you have been director of research for Fidelity you've been with them since I guess 69.
what are the most conspicuous mistakes you've seen investors make well I think not looking at the balance sheet and this mistake I've made if you look at you know if you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets say on their houses they own a house they own a car what debt they have and take that away that's what your net worth is you should do that with a company and I see investors look at companies that made let's say looking at two companies they're very depressed they're each at four dollars a share and they're each losing a couple million dollars a quarter one company is 100 million in cash and no debt and one company has no cash and 100 million are dead they're about to blow TAPS in the second company so and you could do this if you get through eighth grade math you get anywhere near eight and eight equals 16 you can do this look at a company's financial position it's impossible to go bankrupt you don't have any debt when you were actively managing money you presumably under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well I think my greatest mistakes are you know it's funny on a stock all you can lose is 100 I've done that and your great mistakes of selling a good company and that doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes and so it's ones that go up tenfold like on the 10 baggers some of my mistakes just saying oh my God the stock is too high and I was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am I in this baseball game I sold Toys R Us way too early it went up 20 fold after I sold I did the same thing at Home Depot those are probably my two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a Growth Company you have to say Walmart's case 10 years after went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15 the United States and they could say why can't they go to 17.
why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23 so the next four decades they're around the country so you have to save yourself in this stock I have a 10-year story a 20-year story I'll write that down and follow that that's what I do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it you still buy a company and you buy company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's a electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens to Market the Dow Jones today was a thousand or a 500 you had made a lot of money McDonald's you would have made a lot of money Johnson Johnson you already made a lot of money Gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would have lost money in Burlington Industries I recommended that in 1969 I think it's I think it's gone from 34 to two with no stock splits these earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world dump out a thousand I sometimes get angry mail particularly in Bear Market saying so and so recommended such and such and it went down well how often did you come up with a clicker well this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of ten at the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose 20 30 percent So when you buy a cycle to say itself how much can I lose and how much can I make and you ought to be able to make a lot because it stocks are risky I mean look at how much we lost an ATT look how much we lost in Xerox these were Quality Companies you know you could lose a lot in stock so ask yourself how much can I make because I want to buy a stock if I'm right I'm going to make a double or trip does your own confidence ever get shaken every day I think the Market's gonna go up you know I keep calling a lot my company so I keep calling to go you once said to me that you spent all your time looking at companies analyzing them as businesses and you didn't spend a lot of time worrying about the economy do you have a view in the economy now well I look at the economy I look historically economy I don't look at the future I mean that's weather forecasting I look I look at the economy backwards see what's happening it kind of looks very good to me right now the housing market looks terrific the automarket looks good the consumer looks good it's a lot of good elements to it if this is we've had nine recessions since World War II and they've averaged usually about a two percent decline in the workforce you know it's terrible there's about a million half people have lost their jobs in this decline but that would only be about a one percent decline in the workforce so so far this has been a mild recession has been mild in technology has been mild in Telecom has been mild for you know if the company's making fiber optics but it's been a normal recession and I would never bet against the American economy it's powerful you were never a big fan of the Technology Group are you now I've actually started looking I'm a little early on these things I started looking at in January and February and I've been researching the companies um they're very complex because they're if there's a thousand technology companies they're all a little bit different they're not like a bunch of banks they're very similar so you have to be careful I'm looking companies that are selling close to cash they're an industry leader and they're down 95 percent well I think that's a very interesting correlation I mean the Japanese Market economy's been incredibly big they've had a 12-year recession but there you had a real problem with the banking system you basically had let's say average building a commercial building went from 50 million to 500 million a bank then made 110 loan against a 550 million loan then the building went back to 50 and they're stuck with a 450 million loans and the government never cut taxes it actually raised taxes I mean they did everything wrong and the companies didn't cut costs so they just sort of sat there hope things would get better our companies act fast they start going to cost real quickly and our government is fortunately this is rare in our history we went into this recession running a surplus first time ever this is supposed to be in our country we should run services and good times and then in the bad times we run deficits well guess what it's working they didn't have that in Japan and Japan now it's wasted 12 years I don't think it has all I don't just look to me at all like Japan we're near we're starting to get better already Peter Lou asked you a question about sort of the typical investor mistakes and when you started in the business I know the average investor held mutual funds for you know 16 17 years and now it's down to less than two years do you think that's one of the problems that time rise has gotten Too Short well I think also we have to say what do I want do I need the money in a year do you need money in five years you're a terrible investor you need the money in the year if you need it for college to send your kids there a wedding you're not gonna be a good investor then you have to do some homework and say should I have 10 growth funds that's silly you say what do I want I want two or three growth funds what's my mix I like and you want to say it is aggressive you know some people aggressive is 50 so I would say people and some people might want to have foreign funds it's like a menu in a restaurant they should look it over and decide what they like and then stay with it and if one group does well for two or three years the next bunch of money they add to maybe they should add to the group that's underperforming over time different categories work out to be about the same so you get whip start if you're on one area just boil you for three years you say get me out of that you go into some other area and that does badly for three years you could be in it forever and you'll make money Peter does this Market remind you of any that you've been through before I'd say 90 the 90 bear Market is very similar in many ways I mean would you think Saddam Hussein takes over Kuwait you know we sent 500 000 troops to Saudi Arabia all the people are saying it's gonna be Iraq's the third largest army in the world to be another Vietnam we hit a recession we had all these banks in trouble right now our banks are in terrific shape which is a major positive so that was a very scary environment and we had defaults I mean it was an ugly environment everybody was afraid so I think that was a very similar market and I think 8182 was ugly too we had you know 20 primary double digit in inflation doubled in unemployment so those are scary markets and then top it all off the 7374 Market as you remember the nifty 50 we had that we had it in technology stocks so we had 95 declines and you know so we combined three markets into one special case spent very fast we have less than a minute left those who were who are less sanguine above the economy than you've just expressed often cite the recent declines in the dollar and the shift from Surplus to deficit as negatives you've seen them indicate that they're positives why well I think I think the government running a deficit is terrific that's why it should work I mean when they're running a 200 billion dollar Surplus which they were they're taking 200 billion out of the economy now the government's running 100 billion dollar deficit it's pumping 100 billion in it's a cushion so you don't see a double dip recession coming I don't know I can't break the future that's a healthy thing to have buffers in the economy we've had nine recessions World War II we've got out every one of them the system works if you could give one sentence of advice to scan investors right now what would it be I think you ought to see some kids you know hire an eight-year-old hire a six-year-old just watch them they don't know who Alan Greenspan is they know about the shape of yield curve they're optimistic about the future we'll be fine for the next 30 40 years let's hope you're right Peter courage and persistence they've worked in the past
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