저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
하락하는 주식을 가격이 낮다는 이유만으로 사는 것은 위험하다는 결론이다. 핵심 주장: 주가가 떨어졌다고 저가 매수하면 안 되며, 매수 이유를 모르면 하락 시 대응이 불가능하다. 사례 1 - 폴라로이드: 130→100 구간에서 '여기서 더 안 빠진다'고 여겼으나 이후 더 하락했다는 취지로 언급. 사례 2 - 카이저 인더스트리: 1970년대 초 주당 26달러에서 16달러로 떨어졌을 때 매수했으나 계속 하락해 3달러 부근까지 밀렸다. 그러나 보유 자회사 지분 가치와 무부채 구조를 분석하니 기업가치가 주가보다 훨씬 크다고 판단했고, 결국 주주에게 자산을 분배하며 주당 약 60달러 수준의 가치가 실현됐다. 리스크 및 교훈: 부채 없는 기업은 파산하기 어렵다. 떨어진 가격이 바닥이라는 보장은 없으며 RCA, 웨스턴유니온, 플로피디스크 등 회복하지 못한 사례가 많다. 주가가 $3이면 손실은 최대 100%로 제한된다는 점, 공매도자는 과도하게 떨어진 기업이 0으로 갈 것이라 판단해 베팅한다는 점도 언급. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목이나 시장 방향에 대한 단기 예측은 없고, 기업 분석 기반 장기 원칙만 제시. 결론적으로 하락 종목은 기업 본질을 이해한 뒤에만 매수 여부를 판단해야 한다는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
Is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock is going down this much. How much further can go down? I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said, Here's this great company, great record, but never gets below 100. Just buy every share, you know, and it could get below 100 per gigabyte on that basis, saying, Look, it's got 135 to 100.
It's not 95. What to buy within a year was 18, and this time with no debt. I mean, there's a company which is so overpriced, it went down. I did the same thing in my take my first or second year, Fidelity Keizer Industries had gone from $26 a share to 16. I said, How much more can it go at 16? So I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the New York.
On the American Stock Exchange of Keizer Industries at 14. As you know it's gonna be 26 to 16 hours walking to go what can I call my mother and said, Mom, you're going to look at this Kaiser Ministries. I mean how much longer can it go. It's gone from 26 to ten. Well it went to six and went to five and went to four and went to three.
And now I am fortunate as have rapidly I would probably still caddying or working at the stop and shop, but it happened fast. I was able to compress that and at three I figured out, you know, there's something very wrong here because Keizer Industries owns 40% of Kaiser Steel. They own 40% of Kaiser Aluminum.
They own 32% of Kaiser Cement know Kaiser Broadcasting and Kaiser Standard, privatizing engineers they own Jeep. They own business after business, and they had no debt. Now, I learned this very early. This might be a breakthrough for some people. It's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt.
It's tricky. Some people can approach that, and so it's a real achievement. They had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million. And that point, it was equal to buying one Boeing seven 47. I said, There's something wrong with this company. So for 75 million I was a little premature at 16, but I said, Everything's fine.
And eventually this work out. And what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders. They passed out two years ago, spent the past year, and they passed out the public shares and still they sold all the other businesses. You got about $60 a share, but if you didn't understand the company, if you're just buying on the fact the stock I got for 26 to 16 and then it got to ten, what would you do in 29?
What would you do in one day? What would you do? One went to seven. This is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they don't know why they bought it and went down and they don't know what to do now. You flip a coin, you walk around the block, you know, what do you do? Psychiatrist haven't worked so far.
I've never seen them running into the psychological psychiatry fund I've never seen was this for the with the SCC to make it through a mutual fund so they have a scheme to help. I've tried prayer that hasn't worked. So if you don't understand the company, you have this problem when they go there, eventually they always come back.
This one is this one doesn't work either. People think RCA just about get back to its 1929 high when General Electric took it over double digits never came back with those beauties floppy disks Western Union the list goes on and on people saying it'll come back. Well it doesn't have to come back. Here's another one you hear all the time.
It's $3. How much I lose. I had people call me upset. I'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much can I lose? Well, again, you may need a piece of paper for this, but if you put if you put $20,000 in stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 for a 50 into the stock and you put $20,000 in three and it goes to zero, you lose exactly the same amount of money, everything.
And people say it's free. How much can I lose? Well, if you put $1,000,000 on it, you can lose $1,000,000. Just the fact is that this is the only. This may be a reason to research based on the fact a stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should buy it. And in fact, short sellers, people are really make money in stocks.
They don't short Walmart. They're not sure Home Depot in short the great companies Johnson Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to seven they'd like to short at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven that this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown taps on this thing and it's going to zero and they're selling it short seven they're selling it short at 65432 at one quarter.
And you know what to sell something short you need a buyer to buy the darn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing. It's these people saying it's three. How much longer can it go? Yeah.
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