저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 주가는 머스크의 트위터 리스크와 중국 수요 둔화가 겹쳐 단기 하방 압력이 크며, 두 가지 조건이 충족되면 바닥을 형성할 것이라는 진단. 주가 상황: 테슬라가 110달러선을 하회해 109달러 부근에서 횡보, 약 12% 하락한 상태. 기관투자가들의 공포 심리가 4~5년 내 가장 높다고 언급. 하락 원인: 트위터 인수 관련 머스크 리스크가 매도세의 약 70%를 차지한다고 주장. 중국 수요 둔화도 추가 악재로 지목. 주가 하방 시나리오: 주당순이익(EPS) 파워 5달러를 스트레스 테스트 기준으로 제시. 2023년 판매량 최악의 경우 170~180만 대로 전망. PER 약 95~100배 수준에서 극단적 공포가 반영되고 있다고 판단. 평가 및 장기 견해: 테슬라는 전기차 시장의 변혁적 기업이며 현재 미국 자동차 시장 점유율은 약 2.5%. 고금리 환경에서의 밸류에이션 재조정이 있었고, 시가총액 1.24조 달러 정점은 과도했다고 평가. 머스크에게 필요한 조치: 첫째, 트위터에 실질적 CEO 임명. 둘째, 이사회 개입 및 주식 매도 중단을 실질적 증거로 보여줄 것(10b5-1 계획 등). 셋째, 현실적인 가이던스 제시로 불확실성 제거. 조건 충족 시 전망: 위 세 가지가 이행되면 주가가 바닥을 형성할 것으로 봄. 리스크: 주가 추가 하락 가능성, 머스크 신뢰도 문제. 출연자 전망 요약: 테슬라 주가는 단기 추가 하락 리스크가 있으나, 머스크가 조치를 취하면 바닥을 다질 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
when might it stop let's ask the star analyst Dan Ives he covers Tesla shares for wedbush as an outperform rating something it has not done lately to say the least welcome it's good to see you it's stunning I'm looking at it right now it's like a double take it broke 110 okay it's going to finish below that today barely hanging on to 109 nearly a 12 decline I feel like we've had this conversation a lot lately and every time we do it's for several percentage points lower than the prior time we had the conversation what in the world is going on here well I think must set off to five alarm fire you know and that that really started this in terms of the Twitter train wreck and what's really been a black eye from musk and a black eye for Tesla and now the demand the second leg demands starting to soften in China China that's the hearts and Longs of the Tesla story so right now that one two punch is really a perfect storm for Tesla stock and I can tell you institutional investors calling me are his White Knuckle nervous as I've seen them going back four or five years okay so you're speaking to institutional investors who are calling you and saying okay Ives you continue to tell me to buy the stock I got to outperform on it what should I do what do you tell them and then it's like where's the stock go I go so what stress test like is it five dollars earnings power is it less you know could this ultimately go go lower could this trade 75 8 hours they're asking you those questions and those are the questions they're asking me because right now we're in basically unchartered territory because of a self-driven what I view is a 600 billion dollar mistake when you combined all that musk really started here well how low can it go took We Believe five dollars of earnings power is really even when you're stress tested Ultima I think where Tesla goes you know in terms of 2023 you look at units worst case we think potentially 1.7 to 1.8 million in terms of where units could go I think you're starting to get to a point here you get to 95 to 100 hours we start to get to a point where that is almost you are baking in that they would probably do four four dollar 450 of earnings so I think we start to get below 100 we start to get to you know what I view is Extreme panic in the name I mean when when you have an outperform rating on the stock and you haven't outperformed you know way up in the clouds and you have and outperform as it comes back down to earth people start to question your credibility on the name I'm sure you're thinking about your reputation on this stock how does that factor in how you're thinking about it today and whether that will cause you to change your rating on it simply because the goal posts seem to have no doubt and I could tell you in decades of covering Tech stock it's in nature going up you're a hero going down you know obviously it continues to really be targeted on the back I view it as is this a trip this is what I asked for is this a transformational play on electric vehicles where today it's two and a half percent of the of the U.S auto market I believe it is so I I still believe it is I I still I truly believe that ultimately 70 percent of the sell-off is really musk Twitter train wreck driven rather than core fundamentals now with that said damage is done as we've talked about black eye how do you ultimately start to regain your footing if they what I believe could get to 35 40 growth in a worst case going into next year you talk about what could be five dollars earnings power then I think we look back in this period and it was way oversold on the downside but no no doubts God this is definitely what I view it's a fork in the road it's a movement of trust for musk uh you know in terms of where we are but you're telling me of all the issues like the competition the China shutdowns Elon selling it's the Twitter distraction that is the bulk of the selling I didn't even mention the fact the re-rating that stocks like this have taken in a non-zero interest rate environment and this was one of the poster stocks that probably benefited greatly from zero interest rates and a frenzy in the market that happened as a result a stock that probably never should have been 1.24 trillion dollars in market cap at its peak and the jury is out as to whether it should be where it is now which is now smaller than a Walmart or an even JP Morgan yeah and I do I do believe even though we have obviously the macro multiple compression everything else if you look at the must Twitter situation he did what no short could do no bear no conspiracy theory self-driven the 44 billion ultimately led to what could be another five to six hundred billion and that's why this is going to go down as just a historically horrific move for musk then now he needs to course correct otherwise this is just going to continue to what does that mean course correct I mean I was what stops the selling what does he need to do well and there's three things one a CEO of Twitter in the first two weeks of January that's that's truly a CEO not just a figurehead and a yes person two is that to actually with the board as well coming out with this in terms of not selling stock not just saying it because that's the boy that cried wolf actually seeing is not going to ultimately sell stock and putting some actually paper behind it let me ask you this okay because he's just recently said that he's not going to sell anymore for the you know what the foreseeable future I I think we can say Do you believe him well it's a Pinocchio moment because ultimately he said it many times continue to sell now board does have to get involved and there has to be at least the 10 B5 plan there's needs to be something so investors understand what the goal posts are with selling and the third they need to come out with guidance rip the Band-Aid off don't give lofty numbers they're going to have to continue to cut if they do those three things then the stock ultimately bottom
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