저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
1월 첫 주 시장은 광범위한 랠리 속 빅테크 중 애플·엔비디아는 답보. 다음 주는 JP모건 헬스케어 컨퍼런스, CPI·소매판매·PPI 등 물가 지표, 은행 실적 시즌 개막(JP모건·씨티·웰스파고·골드만·모건스탠리·블랙록)과 TSMC 실적이 주요 이벤트. 엔비디아·애플은 보유 권고(매도 자금 탈출 시기로 해석). 클라우드플레어 추가 매수 권고, 치즈케이크팩토리는 PER 13배로 저평가 주장.
다듬은 글
[, my dedicate to teach you, show you how it works. hen you get an unemployment report that's basically uneventful, it allows you to focus on what's really happening in the market. And what's happening is once again a broad-based rally that encompasses many different and often overlooked areas that didn't get much love last year.
And that's how the Dow rallied 238 points. [screaming] S&P gained 65% and the Nasdaq jumped 82%. We've seen breathtaking rallies in the data storage stocks. We also have some stocks that simply can't lift. And I got to mention them. Apple and Nvidia. I know you want to know if it's over for these two members of the Magnificent 7.
I come at it a totally different way. I think both Apple and Nvidia, the companies are humming along making a lot of money. It's simply that money managers need to sell something old if they want to buy something new. So, their stocks become what is known as a source of funds. Do you know it's a timehonored tradition at the beginning of the year?
I've seen it happen in January repeatedly over the years. You just have to wait these two out. You'll know when the selling is done. It's truly not over yet or the stocks wouldn't start rolling over every day from the get-go. And you see it as well as I do. I say own Apple and own Nvidia. Don't trade them.
Nothing's changed for me as members of the CBC Investing Club know all too well. Are they the House of Fame? Nah, wrong address. Okay, let's go to work here. Now, what are we doing next week? Well, first of all, we are headed uh at the beginning now Sunday morning. I'm going uh to a week at the beginning of the JP Morgan Healthc Care Conference.
Okay, now look, this is a really special event and it's way too important to miss. I'm going to interview a dozen CEOs to see what their plans are for the new year. Historically, this is a conference where people announce grand plans, including mergers and acquisitions. I've seen a bunch of stories break there over the years.
I'm going to cover all the breaking news, especially the acquisitions. There could be a lot of them at this conf. One thing I can say about the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, it's a market mover. You don't want to miss it. Some of these companies are going to announce things that are going to blow you away.
Tuesday morning starts with the December consumer price index and it matters. Today we had an inconsequential set of labor department figures that didn't really impact the stock market. I don't think the CPI will be weak. We're going getting some indication that the holiday shopping season was very strong, the strongest in years.
Look for some tension between the president who's trying to contain inflation and the consumer who's borne the brunt of it with the Federal Reserve in the middle trying to figure out if it's safe to keep cutting interest rates in a rising inflation environment. Tuesday also marks the start of earning season with none other than the quarterly report of yes JP Morgan.
Now I am worried about this conference call. Not the quarter, the call. The stock's coming in redot and I don't think the company will be as a brilliant as the stock would indicate. You got to remember CEO Jamie Diamond has a certain style. When things are good, he likes to talk about what could go wrong, not what could go right.
Things are good. That orientation is what often terrifies people though. I want to emphasize I think JB Morgan's actual quarter will be amazing. But that's not the point. Jaime's cautious comments crushed his own stock last quarter. He could do it again. Remember I told you buy it into that weekend.
I hope I can be as uh clairvoyant this time. My suggestion is wait to see if Jaime's worried, cautious, even pessimistic. Watch the stock go down. If that happens, you can pounce on some of it at the end of the day and you buy some and then you may have to buy some the next day. That's what happened the last pattern.
Delta reports too. And I got to tell you, the airlines are putting up some terrific numbers. I expect a fine quarter from Delta as it's arguably the best run airline. Wednesday morning, we get not one but two key numbers. Okay, we get the retail sales and the producer price index. Now, these numbers, like the CPI on Tuesday, could give the Fed cover to bless us with rate cuts.
Of course, there's a caveat here. Unlike the CPI, these numbers are on a delay. They're from November thanks to that backlog from the government shutdown. I think December was a strong month in the country with big holiday spending. That will not be included. Wednesday also brings more bank earnings.
The star most likely will be the one that's been the star for a while now, Cityroup. It's gone from ugly duckling to beautiful swan, but the analysts haven't caught up with the new numbers yet. So, it just keeps surprising the upside. We get the up upside estimate revisions and then the stock flies.
You know what? But it's not the only one. We also hear from Wells Fargo, which we own for the Chablish Trust. Now, this bank stock has been fabulous to us. And Charlie Sharf, the CEO of Wells, has pivoted the bank from a plain old banking company to a full corporate and individual bank, which includes a lucrative merger and acquisition package.
They're on the Netflix deal. Uh Wells is constantly pairing costs and surprisingness with its efficiency. I am optimistic. I maybe he talks a little about how AI is helping them. He's a visionary. Charlie Bank of America reports to and it's been consistently good with very few surprises. I expect none this time.
Just a solid growth quarter that will help drive up the stock over time. Thursday we'll get some fireworks. Two investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley should both report excellent numbers. The amount of activity in financial markets is unusually strong. The asset gathering in Morgan Stanley has been extraordinary.
Ted pick, good job there. Goldman's takeover business should be tremendous. David Solomon, I expect both numbers. I expect number increases for both Goldman and Morgan Stanley. We also get to hear results from Black Rockck. Remember, they have the most money under management of any company on earth.
These guys have been emphasizing all sorts of new kinds of funds. So, when the large repository of money reports, I think I'll be able, you know, it's going to be over a pretty good number. Unfortunately, in a period when some banks are reporting extraordinary quarters, that might not be good enough for this travel trust holding stocks within the same sector compete with each other for dollars.
And right now, the banks are running circles around the rest of the financials. Taiwan semi reports. Yes, and that's the manufacturing partner of both AMD and Nvidia. It should be a monster quarter, but I think everyone knows that. I want to point out that Nvidia stock has been incredibly weak despite a steady drum beat of good news.
Maybe a strong quarter from partner Taiwan Semi can help shake off some of the sellers. The winners in the semi area so far though have been the opposite of the very complicated Nvidia. Their data storage simple names like Western Digital Sandis uh and Seagate also a little more complicated Micron. Uh these are the companies right now that are moving up along with the semiconductor capital equipment companies to that I'm focused on applied materials and lamb research.
After the close we hear from truck giant JB Hunt probably seen their trucks on the road. I think his group has finally broken out. It stoldrums the freight recession. I don't typically recommend truckers. Very hard business. But a good number from JB Hunt emboldens me to keep pushing Federal Express.
FedEx, what a winner that's been. Raj Superman's just done a fantastic job there. On Friday, we get a big bank break when we can focus on uh just PNC. Uh a regional bank that's been an up and down performer after years where it did nothing but go up. I prefer the other bank stocks. Now, the beginning of earning season sets the tone for bushel of quarters ahead.
It makes sense. The banks always kick things off and it's reasonable to extrapolate all sorts of trends for consumers, right? And corporations for the financials. The bottom line, a strong start to earning season could lead to a nice tone going forward. Yes, you can take your cue from the bank earnings.
And you know what? I bet they'll be darn good ones. I want to start with Gregory in California. Gregory, happy new year, Jim. And happy 21st on Mad Money. Thank you, Gregory. Congratulations. Thank you very much. You're always very kind to me and to our team. I really appreciate it. Not at all. I think you've lasted now longer than half the companies that we've talked about on the show.
It's incredible. Um, thank you. Speaking speaking of which, I I I need your help on something today. Um, sure. I'm there for you. Halloween. Last Halloween, this company blew away the numbers in in their quarter on every line, including Q4 guidance. And then they hit an all-time high of $260 and then started to sell off.
So, I started a small position and added as it continued to drop and now I'm down 20%. So, Jim, other than profit taking uh and scheduled insider selling, as long as they continue to execute, my thesis hasn't changed on Cloudflare as yours. Uh I just yesterday was speaking to a very large investor and he said what kind of companies are you looking at that you like?
I said I'm trying to buy companies that are down a lot you know maybe you know more than just a couple percent from their highs that are run very well that do good things and I'm very I'm not worried about the quarters. You know what? That's Matthew Prince. That's Cloudflare. Uh, symbol NE T. And Gregory, I think you you buy a little more here and if it comes down cuz the chart is ugly, you buy some more after that.
And thank you for the kind words as always. Let's go to Clay in Indiana. Clay. Hey, Jim. Booyah. Booyah. Clay. Uh, the stock is Cheesecake Factory. It's been up about 8% this past week. Is it still a buy? Yes, they really know how to run it. You know, they are just a seasoned practitioner. They know how to do it.
I think it's going to make a run at all-time highs. It uh sells at 13 times earnings. That's way too cheap for a very high quality, still growth company, even though it's up 14% this year. I like it. Now, I've got to tell you, a a strong start to the season of earnings week could set the tone for not just the rest of the year, but well, I shouldn't say it.
Could set the tone for a long time. Now, you can take your two from the banks. I bet they have good things to say. On May money tonight, I'm digging into two consumer names that I know you like very much and are worth highlighting on a sleepy Friday. First is Shark Ninja, one of the biggest comeback stories 2025.
So, can you continue to run higher? I'm taking a look at the appliance maker and give you my take. Then, Ulta Beauty has been sitting at the top of the new high list almost every day lately. What's working in this beauty name? I'm going to give you my analysis. And by the way, ahead of our trip out to JP Morgan Healthcare Conference this week, I'm getting a preview of the names and themes to watch with the top healthcare analysts at JPM. I want you to stay with Crap. .
Comments 0