저자: AshAnderson · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 워런 버핏의 투자 방식을 정량화한 8개 기준 점수표를 소개하며, 특정 종목의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않는다. 주제 1 - 버핏 점수표 개요 출연자는 'Buffettology' 책을 바탕으로 파이썬으로 8개 기준의 워런 버핏 점수를 만들었다고 설명한다. 주제 2 - 8개 평가 기준 ① 5년 연속 주당순이익(EPS) 성장 ② 부채를 3년 내 소득으로 상환 가능한지 ③ 5년간 자기자본이익률(ROE) 15% 이상 ④ 투하자본이익률(ROIC) 12% 이상 ⑤ 최근 12개월 잉여현금흐름 양수 ⑥ 5년 대비 발행주식수 감소(자사주 매입) ⑦ 초기 수익률(EPS/주가)이 미국 10년물 금리(1.1%) 초과 ⑧ 애널리스트 성장률 기반 향후 5년 추정치로 연 12% 이상 성장 가능성. 주제 3 - 만점 종목 예시 애플, 어도비, 액센추어, 베스트바이, 클로락스, 이베이, 페이스북(메타) 등이 8점을 받았다고 언급한다. 주제 4 - 한계와 리스크 정량 분석만으로는 부족하며 어도비처럼 현재 주가가 높아 보여도 장기 보유 관점에서 정성적 분석이 필요하다고 강조한다. 데이터 누락 시 0점 처리되어 일부 우량주가 누락될 수 있다고 밝힌다. 주제 5 - 종목 방향 예측 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 장기 보유 관점의 언급(어도비, 전체 8점 목록 중 절반 가량)만 존재. 주제 6 - 출연자 전망 특정 시장 전망은 제시하지 않으며, 향후 현금흐름/자산 비율 점수와 결합하는 영상 아이디어를 언급한다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone and welcome back to another video where today we're going to be talking all about warren buffett specifically this book buffetology so what this book talks about is warren buffett's investment style i liked it so much i dove into python and i began working out all these different rules to give stocks a warren buffett score and that's what we're going to go over it's eight different rules we'll cover each of them and then we'll talk about the companies that score all eight points if you're ready i'm ready let's go hey so for those of you that watch these videos frequently you might have noticed i was missing on thursday and friday of last week that's because i live in the great cold state of texas you know we had power issues either the power was out it was too expensive it just took away a lot of the focus but i'm back today and yeah we're talking about this book or fatology so buffetology is a book that was written to give you an idea of how warren buffett himself approaches investing and warren buffett he has never put out a specific checklist he's never put out that specific set of criteria in stocks that he looks for so we have to rely on books like this to kind of give us an idea of of what warren buffett really wants when he's looking for companies you know there's a lot of things you've probably heard he likes moats he likes good return on equity he likes a great management team well there's some of these things that warren likes that we can quantify run against every stock out there and just see which stocks stand out against the pack and so that is what this video is about it's about those companies that stand out from the rest of the pack using eight specific criteria that i dug out of this book so for the rest of this video we're going to look at those eight specific criteria and why i picked them and then to end out the video and there's chapter markings below on youtube if you just want to skip to the stocks that score a perfect eight at the end of the video i'll show you that list of stocks that scored all eight points also like with all my videos the data is in the description below it's a google sheet it has every stock that i run this score for it has whether they scored a zero or one and then it has their final score there in the right hand column now we should know up front that if i did not have the particular data that was needed for a particular stock i just scored that as zero this means that we might miss out on some stocks that should be an eight but really ended up a six but it's good that we don't have any say false positives these are all true positives we don't have any false positives sneaking away up there so yeah let's dig into the rules so the first rule is consistent earnings does this company in question have consistent earnings growth so i take five years ago let's say the earnings per share is one dollar then i take the most recent report let's say the earnings per share is four dollars that company has grown its earnings consistently to balance that out i also take the trailing 12 month so we take the last quarterly report work a year back from that and if the earnings have grown over the last year then that's also a good thing so to pass this first criteria a stock must have consistent earnings growth the second thing i pulled out of this book that warren buffett looks for is the ability to pay down debts in a manageable way now that aspect is not well defined so i had to come up with a definition myself and what i went with was the sort of rule you have when buying a house so when buying a house you said to not take on a mortgage that's more than three years of your annual income so if you make a hundred thousand dollars your mortgage should really be less than three hundred thousand dollars and i applied that same criteria to the debts here so if a company has a high debt they hopefully have high earnings to cover it and just as an example if a company has 300 million dollars in debt they should have 100 million dollars in net income to cover that debt so if a company can pay off all its debt within three years just from their income that's considered a pass so if a company has no debt that's also a pass rule number three and this is one that you hear warren buffett talk about a lot and that's return on equity so for rule number three we are looking for high consistent return on equities what is high well in my case i went with 15 so if a company is consistently posting above 15 return on equity over the last five years that is considered a pass you get one point if that company drops below 15 it might be okay we take the average if that company is consistently below 15 that's zero points the falling straight on from return on equity is high return on investors capital or return on total capital it's got a few different names so we want return on investors capital to be consistently above 12 why well return on equity can be skewed a little bit depending on how the company is financed that return on capital is a little bit narrower in scope so a company with massive amounts of debt cannot skew this return on investors capital so higher than 12 you get a point less than 12 you get no points fifth point is going to be does this company generate free cash flow and it's a pretty simple one i just look at free cash flow over the previous 12 months so the trailing 12 months of free cash flow if that value is positive that's a point if that value is negative there's no points this just shows that the company is generating more cash and it's consuming it's not a high capital expenditures business which is what warren buffett would look for rule number six and this one has become especially important in my portfolio i i have a large holding of apple but rule number six is does that company buy back shares so to calculate this i look at the shares outstanding five years ago and look at the shares outstanding today if that count today is less than that count five years ago i consider this a pass if it's if that count today is higher than it was five years ago i consider that a fail so 1.0 points no a why for this one well share buybacks increase your ownership of the company as a whole so if there was a million shares outstanding and you had 10 of them you owned a tiny tiny tiny piece i mean you would still own a tiny piece if there was 900 000 outstanding but you own a bigger piece having done nothing now there's arguments as to whether dividends are better whether buybacks are better whether reinvesting that cash is better but warren buffett likes share buybacks this is a video about warren buffett so going with share buybacks being a point and not having those share buybacks zero points nice next score is a pretty easy one to score a one in what we do is we get the initial rate of return for a stock how we do that is we take the trailing 12 months eps and we divide that by the current share price this gives us a percentage back let's say that percentage is 5 to pass this score and get that one point all you need to do is have an initial rate of return that is higher than a 10-year treasury now when running this score i put in 1.1 for that 10-year treasury you know when warren buffett was investing when warren buffett was making his billions these 10-year treasuries they were something a 1.1 percent today most stocks as long as they are generating some form of profit beat this score they get that one point it's 1.1 percent people if you're investing in stocks that don't at least get an ir of 1.1 percent unless you are in highly speculative place you're probably doing something wrong so as long as you have an irr that beats that 1.1 percent you get a point if not you get zero now the last point is a little bit trickier to calculate so what we do is we take analysts growth estimates for the next five years you can find these on websites like yahoo finance if you click on analysis i think scroll on down you'll see estimates of what the analysts believe this stock will grow like over the next five years so we take that analyst growth expectations run it with the earnings per share over the next five years and we get a new earnings per share we times that by the company's average price to earnings now a little bit of a caveat on this if a company has an exceptionally high average price to earnings ratio i reduce that down to 40.
why i don't know this is just the first time i've run this score i didn't want companies getting multiplied with you know 100 or 200 x on those earnings so i brought it down to 40 just so it was something to start testing with on the bottom end i bring it up to 15. so the company has a negative price to earnings ratio or a company has say a price to earnings ratio average of seven they get bumped up to 15 just to bring them more in line with what a market average would be it's doing all this gets us a stock price and then we have to figure out well how much bigger than today is that stock price and what we do is we just calculate how much this stock grows each year and let's say it is 15 if it's 15 that's a pass if this stock is expected to grow 15 a year it's a point because all we're looking for is something more than 12 percent so if a stock is expected to grow at say five percent per year that's not going to get a point here if it's expected to grow at 10 also not going to get a point we're looking for something 12 and above so that's all the rules that make up this score but before we dive into the companies that got those perfect eights i did want to ask you is there anything you would change about this score you know there's comments below i want to hear from you i made this score up based on the readings from this book so if there's something that you maybe took from this book or maybe have taken from warren buffett's other speeches letters whatever it is let me know and i would love to add that to this score yeah let's dive into at least some of the companies that got those perfect eights all right so there are some big names up front that well some of them already are buffet stocks like apple now berkshire halfway owns a decent amount of apple stock today and that stock scores an eight it's also names like adobe and accenture and then one that really caught my eye best buy i wouldn't expect to see best buy on a list like this but it has been putting a great return on investor capital numbers over the last five years great return on equity it's profitable it's a 30 billion dollar company that one might be worth further research other names like clorox ebay fasinol facebook they make the list as well and like i said in the beginning there are too many to show at least in this sidebar so the data is below you can find all of these eight rated stocks you know they got the full eight points you can find the sevens the sixes the fives the fours the threes the twos the ones and the zeros they are all below but and this is where we got to talk a little bit about the score and what it actually shows you this score brings you companies that meet a very specific set of criteria now these are criteria that i would say are pretty good we're looking at companies that are profitable companies that generate cash companies that have high returns on equity high returns on investor capital we're looking at good companies here but you have to make sure you're buying them at good prices you don't have to wait for them to become cigar bots there there is money to be made in some of these companies today like it's going to be hard to topple a company like adobe for instance adobe scores and eight it pretty much runs design if you want to edit photos photoshop if you want to edit videos you got premiere pro if you want to do anything in the design world there's a good chance you're going to be getting a subscription to adobe's creative platform and that's a hard lock to break that's it there's a network effect right there so is adobe priced high today it is but there's a case to be made that it's not priced high in the future that buying it today is a good long-term buy and hold and i think that that's probably the case for at least half of the stocks in this eight-rated list but when it comes down to it obviously quantitative which is what this is we just took math we figured out a score based on some numbers on a page quantitative analysis is not the be-all end-all you will need at least some form of qualitative analysis so you have to know whether a company like ebay is you know is it capturing users mind still is that the place you go for auctions i know it is for me if i want to see the value of of something used like maybe a poster that i have or a comic book or anything like that i'll go to ebay first have i bought anything off ebay in the last five years so you've got to at least do that qualitative approach don't just buy based on quantitative metrics but yeah wrapping up this video i do hope you enjoyed it and i hope that i did this book at least a little bit of justice if you did like it leave a thumbs up consider subscribing to the channel i make weird quirky data videos every week right so uh yeah if you want more of that subscribe to the channel i'll be trying to keep track of this score in some way much like i do with the other scores i put out the analyst score the petersburg score that cash flow over asset score which actually now that i think about it that cash flow over asset score would be good to combine with this buffet score so that's an idea for a future video if you're interested in that subscribe but until next time thank you so much for watching have a good one
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