저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
일론 머스크 순자산 1조달러 돌파는 테슬라·스페이스X 등 고평가 자산에 집중된 결과로, 매도 시 자산가치가 급락할 것이라 주장. 테슬라 PER 353은 과도하며 경쟁 심화로 수익성 이익 실현이 어렵다고 봄. 과도한 기대가 반영된 주식보다 나쁜 시나리오가 가격에 반영된 자산이 유리하다고 강조. 본인 구글 보유 주식은 2010~2011년 매수로 크게 올랐으나 구글 역시 과대평가되었고 10년 내 자본이 사라질 수 있다며 비중 축소를 권고.
다듬은 글
Well, Elon Musk's fortune has exceeded a trillion dollars for the first time in human history . It happened. Now people like to say, "Well, that's not liquid. He doesn't have all that money in cash." But even if he doesn't have the cash, he can sell huge blocks of shares and also borrow money against his assets, right?
So he could probably borrow half a trillion dollars if he really needed to, right? Yes, well, Elon Musk, yes , I mean, his fortune, and Elon Musk was needed because before Elon Musk came along, the richest American in history was still John D. Rockefeller, who lived over 100 years ago. Because, taking into account inflation, his fortune was about 600-700 billion, right?
So, it took Elon Musk to surpass John Rockefeller of Standard Oil. But the reason he beats John Rockefeller is not because he earns more. And the fact that his assets are valued higher. And this is part of the " bubble". I don't think SpaceX is worth 100 times its earnings, but that's how stocks are valued.
I don't think Tesla is worth anywhere near as much as it is on the market. So Elon Musk's net worth is a function of the concentration of his wealth in overvalued assets . Now, if he started selling a lot of these assets, prices would fall and he would cease to be a trillionaire. He's a trillionaire only because he doesn't sell them.
He holds them. But he is still very rich. I'm not downplaying Elon's achievements. But I think if he tried to get cash, he wouldn't be as rich as John Rockefeller. He would still be much richer than me. But he won't be richer than Rockefeller. But yes, and I think he was able to achieve this because of the " bubble" that we have right now in certain stocks.
The public is willing to pay a crazy price for the shares. And, as we mentioned earlier, Donald J. Trump, DJT. It just, you know, shows you that this is an example of how people bought stocks at the very beginning, when they were at the peak of the hype. And they paid hundreds, it seems the price went up to two, three, four hundred, some crazy price.
Someone bought them, and now they're worth $7. So, at that point in time, Donald Trump had a huge fortune because he owned this share of the company. But now it's 96% or 94% less, whatever that means. Um, and that 's why Elon Musk is now a trillionaire. We'll see how long this lasts . But eventually we will all become trillionaires.
But that's because money will almost lose its value, right? I mean, everyone in Zimbabwe is a trillionaire, right? So, you know, it's just...I'm a trillionaire. A trillion of what? What do you have, huh? Well, if I have a trillion dollars, it all depends on the value of the dollar. Listen, I checked .
I own a bunch of Tesla shares, and they have a price/ earnings ratio of 353, which is pretty crazy. But at least there is some profit. SpaceX doesn't even have any profits. So, it's just sales. No, you are right. It's…it's profitable, but I can't tell you that as someone who has been buying Tesla cars since 2010, when my children were born.
Sorry, only since 2015, when my children were born. Tesla's technology is so far ahead of any other car company that it can't even be compared. Autopilot capability...Oh, wait. Tesla's autopilot capability is literally 10, maybe 100 times better than its closest competitor. To the point that they don't even make the Model X and Model S that I always bought anymore, because now they're switching straight to robo-taxis.
And these robo-taxis actually come off the assembly line and drive themselves to people's homes. And beyond that, if you look at what they're doing with robotics, if everything goes as it should , this is going to be a very , very valuable company in the next 5-10 years; so I have no problem with having over a million dollars in Tesla stock.
Yes, you know, it all depends on how events develop over time. There 's no doubt that Tesla has great products. The question is, how much money can Tesla make selling these great products? Because right now they don't earn very much. So, um, what's it worth? You may have great products, but what is the business that sells them worth?
And one more thing: over time, one of the beautiful things about capitalism is that success breeds competition . And if you do something well, others try to imitate it and may eventually surpass you. Um, there will be a lot of competition from Germany, China , Japan, and who knows where else, in all of these products.
And if Tesla actually starts making more money, that will attract even more competition, right? Because if excess profits are made in a certain area , capital naturally flows there to try to compete. So when you pay that price for a Tesla, you're already paying with the assumption that all these great things will happen.
That's right. They may not happen, in which case you lose. As an investor, instead of buying something that is priced as perfect, where everything can go wrong and I will lose a lot of money, I would rather buy something where the price already takes into account the unfortunate development of events.
Then, if these bad things don't happen, I'll make a lot of money. Or if something good happens that I didn't expect, I'll make a lot of money too. Tesla is priced as if all these good things are bound to happen. They must happen. So, you know, it's possible to own a company that doesn't have that price tag.
For example, I own shares in a company based in Thailand. I regret not buying more because they have grown 100 times since I bought them. But when I bought them, they were relatively cheap and had nothing to do with artificial intelligence. But suddenly they became part of the AI field. It is now the largest company in Thailand.
When I bought it, it was nothing, and now it's 100 times more expensive than I paid because something really good happened that I didn't even expect. So, if you can buy something when no one is expecting a good outcome, and then something good happens, you can hit the jackpot. If you buy something where everyone already expects great things, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
Um, so... Well, I don't necessarily agree with that, because the core of my portfolio was Google, and I started buying it in 2010, 2011. Google was a well-known brand. And it was the largest search engine in the world. It had the largest email user base in the world. Google Maps was absolutely dominant , and YouTube was also absolutely dominant at the time.
He was dominant in everything, and people said, "Well, he won't be able to develop any further." And those initial stocks that I bought over all those years went up about 2,000%. Yes, I mean Google actually makes up the majority of my fortune at the moment. Yeah, I mean, Google, you know, it's more of an exception than a rule.
I'm not saying you can't buy a popular company and it will actually perform better than people expected, but it's also a great example because what did people use before Google? Yahoo. Yes, and at one time Yahoo was the best search engine. And there were others, there was Spyglass. I forgot. There were about three or four such companies that later depreciated to zero.
But people had a lot of expectations when it came to Google. So , Google, you know, came about the same way, you know, Facebook came about, but before Facebook, there was MySpace. Then it came along, and I think the main thing that saved Facebook— now Meta—was that they bought Instagram. Because no one even uses Facebook anymore.
They use... but he was smart enough to buy Instagram, and it was a great move by Zuckerberg when he realized, "Hey, this is better than Facebook." That's where, you know, "and he went and bought them." And by the time he bought Instagram, people were probably saying, "Oh, that's too much money." He didn't pay with money.
He just paid in shares, you know. He simply issued shares. And now, you know, I don't know. Now it's an AI company. This is a hyperscaler. Who even knows what Meta is now. But I think, I think Google is overrated. I think that within the next 10 years your capital will be dead. I think you...I think you...Well, you bought it so cheap that, again , paying sales taxes might not be worth it.
That's why I said you should move to Puerto Rico. But I would...I would reduce that proportion a little . It's not necessary to sell everything, but I would look for other opportunities for some of that money received from Google.
댓글 0