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S&P의 Strategy(MSTR) B- 신용등급 부여를 비트코인 제도권 편입의 신호로 해석. 시장이 아직 초기이며 RSI 80 이상 과거 패턴(월 40%+ 상승)을 근거로 비트코인이 1~2년 내 100만 달러에 도달할 수 있다고 주장. 통화 평가절하와 중앙은행 금 보유 증가를 상승 근거로 제시.
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Hey guys, welcome back. Drip coach here where we don't dress, we verify and operate with integrity and transparency. Today we are recapping a clip from Simply Bitcoin. Simply I honestly never know what the proper way to say this thing is because Dante says it one way and then Logo says it another way.
Um, no clue. But either way, it's all about Bitcoin. Simple. And anyway, in this clip, we're talking about the recent uh credit rating that strategy got, aka Micro Strategy Strategy, and what this bigger signal is with them getting this approval rating, a B minus, and how it literally signals that the global markets, the big money players, the big movers and shakers still have no clue about Bitcoin, which means we are still early.
And there's a it's not a quote in this one, but I'm going to bring it up because it's from Sailor where he said that basically by you doing the research now and getting into Bitcoin, you're getting it at a 90% discount. When Bitcoin gets to a million dollars a coin, that's when these other movers and shakers will start to wake up and make it easyer to access Bitcoin and they'll start to understand it and start putting on a balance sheet.
And then when that moves to the final wave of mass adoption, Bitcoin is going to be at 10 to$20 million a coin. So, you do not want to wait for it to become super easy and approved and onboarding and all that stuff or you're going to lose out on the premium, the discount that you're able to get it for right now.
So, anyway, let's go into this clip. S&P Global assigned Micro Strategy, my bad, strategy, a B minus credit rating, marking the first time in history that a Bitcoin treasury company is rated by a Wall Street agency. Sounds boring, but it's not. It's the equivalent of discovering financial fire. This now makes Bitcoin a mainstream asset in the eyes of not just people like Black Rockck and Institutions, but creditors all across the globe.
The most interesting remarks from the credit analysts when reading the report of the credit rating, the B minus credit rating that they gave to Strategy, is that when they're actually looking at its credit rating, they're deducting the value of their Bitcoin assets. They're saying the company has negative total adjusted capital, which makes no sense considering they have over $70 billion worth of Bitcoin on their balance sheet with over a 50% profit.
Nonetheless, this is a massive milestone and and that's the part I'm talking about that lets you see how early we are. Negative adjusted capital and they're sitting with 70 billion on their balance sheets because they have 640,000 Bitcoin. That is crazy. So, they're basically saying, "Yeah, we see what you guys are doing.
You're a great company, but all of this over here, we're giving it a zero. doesn't have any weight positive or negative um uh against their evaluation. So it's like if they were to evaluate them with that then they would probably have a much more positive rating. It says we believe the company's negative total adjusted capital significant rating constraint based on our treatment of its Bitcoin assets in our calculation as of June 30 2025 strategies RAC which is the riskadjusted capital ratio was significantly negative which drives our view of the company's capital and earnings because we deduct Bitcoin assets from equity.
So Bitcoin is is not equity to the company or to whoever these people are that you know create these ratings. The company has negative total adjusted capital as of second quarter 2025. We take this approach because we believe Bitcoin has significant market risk that is uncorrelated to traditional market risk.
That's actually a good thing. That again just shows you how how early we are. Like read that statement again. Bitcoin has significant market risks that are uncorrelated to traditional markets. You don't want your other assets on your balance sheets correlated to everything else. That means when everything moves, this thing moves the same.
You want negative correlation. So when one's the bed, the other can be positive. Like it's just asinine because this goes back to Jeff Boo's statement on my other videos. They are so inside of this system and they cannot think differently. They cannot remove their bias because everything they say and do must support the control system.
If they allow themselves to be co-opted by Bitcoin to think freely, to understand free market principles, then it breaks the very system that they have. So, this goes back to again a statement I opened the video with because they are so entrenched and so ingrained and so lost in their own sauce. We have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount.
The minute they wake up and see that this is no longer a negative thing, it's a positive thing. Bitcoin is going to be trading at a million dollars a coin and it will not take long to get it there to show you and remind you how quick that can move towards a million dollars. Remember this is the the RSI that um plan B is always talking about when we have these blowoff tops that is basically saying that the RSI is over 80.
Right? So, in 2021, we had 1 2 3 4 5. 2022, we won't count this one even though it's like 79. It's really close. We had 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. Um, I know a lot there, but anyway, let's do the math. So an RSI over 80 is basically plus 40% monthly returns. So it can be anywhere above 40%. Like 40% or higher.
That's typical. That's the the bottom line. Like at 80, that's the minimum you're going to get is 40% returns. Could be 50%, could be 100%. Who the hell knows? And the RSI is tied strongly to the um business cycle. Um oh, what the hell is that other thing called? Um, yeah, the business cycle, the ISM, all these acronyms, man, got me confused.
But let's take a look at this real simple math. 40% returns. That's that's the minimum. Right now, we're seeing $15,000 Bitcoin, right? As of this video, where there we go, November 10th, 105K. So, let's just say that that happened in next month. That be December, January, February, March, April. You're sitting at a half a million dollar Bitcoin in literally 5 months.
That's how quickly things can just get out of control. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but you can see how quick that Bitcoin can spike up like that. And dragging that out just a little further, 7 months, you get to a $1 million Bitcoin. And remember we just saw here in the last cycle well two cycles ago there was nine months where the RSI was above um 40 and that's above 80 and that's with a 40%.
So this can change dramatically like that's at month nine if that's 50%. All of a sudden we're there at month six. So, um just yeah, I guess the best thing to do is just keep that in mind to see how quickly things can change. So, from month seven to month six, sorry, incorrect uh assessment there. But anyway, let's go back to simply Bitcoin.
Where was I left off at? Here it looks good. Micro Strategy CEO Fong Lee himself in a conversation that he had with Natalie Brunell a few months ago. Are these instruments going to get rated by the credit rating agencies and is that important? Uh it is important because there are there are large pools of institutional capital, insurance funds, pension funds, etc.
who are required uh to invest in uh their bigger pools of capital into um rated securities, right? And so they they they can take a small pool of capital like 5% and put it into unrated security and it counts against them uh in some ways their balance sheet. But their big pool is capital required rating.
they uh for the most part would love to have the types of returns that our fixed income securities uh provide. Um but to do so they need to invest in rated securities. Some cases investment grade, some cases junk, some cases in between, right? Uh and so we're working through a process with with the big agencies uh to get rated.
I think the agencies are interested in it. You know, they don't know how to evaluate they move a little slow. They move a little slow and they don't know what to compare it to, but they're doing their work. They're smart folks at these agencies who are going through the process and doing the work. And and I think, you know, step one is to get it rating.
Uh and step two at some future point in time is to improve that rating by proving uh one how Bitcoin can be very good collateral uh and two showing our instruments over time performing and paying out right and so we're like what we did in 2020 with Bitcoin on a balance sheet of a public company. We're doing that now really this year at Bitcoin and preferred instruments and getting them rated.
Step one check they got a credit rating. Step two prove that Bitcoin is pristine collateral. And step three, now Micro Strategy has to step up and perform. They have to make do and pay out on their preferred credit instruments that they put out into the market over the past several months. They're paving the way for a whole new path for institutions to adopt Bitcoin just like they did in 2020.
And because of that, Ripple effects have gone across the globe. So much so that people like Larry Fank are now talking about Bitcoin in the round tables of the wealthiest people in the world. So recap on that. This is showing the strategy playbook. So remember they were the first company to adopt Bitcoin on the balance sheet and now they have made these different credit instruments to fill the gaps for different levels of risk within the global credit based system for other companies for other holders.
And what the CEO was just saying there is that these companies kind of the hedge funds or investing firms on behalf of the companies need to fill the gaps on their balance sheets with different um types of credit instruments. Some that have a dividend paying stock, some that are more liquid, some that are more secure, some that are longer term.
like they have different variables and strategy has created these different um options, stock options and now like Dante was saying the playbook is just let this run its course and as it runs and these credits these securities these stock options are working and the market is seeing them working then that improves.
You look at it kind of like if you're familiar with the US crediting system, you know, you apply for credit and then they give you a credit score and then as you pay your bills on time, you increase the uh or decrease the debt to income ratio, all these other factors, credit companies are like, "Hey, let's let's give them a little bit higher score." That's all it really is.
They've set the table with everything now. They've already opened the lines of credits. They've applied for the loans. They got all this stuff out there. Now it's just a matter of letting this play its course out. And then back to what I was saying before, these agencies also will see Bitcoin mature and the rules coming from the regulators and the government will also force their hands.
So it's like look at all this tailwind that is coming to the foundational level of Bitcoin. So like it's like how can you be bearish and then how can you sit on the sidelines and miss this opportunity? It may not feel like an opportunity because it's 100k and just four years ago it bottomed out with FTX to 16K and you're like well damn I should have bought it then but you're going to be kicking yourself now again four years from now and literally just showed you the math on here how quickly it can go up to you know a four five 6 7x 10x from here it could literally be by the end of next year December it could be sitting at a $1 million Bitcoin very very easy like You see the math in here.
And that can allow for a 20% correction and then a 60% pump and then a 30% correction and then a 70% pump. That would still come out to an average 40% return. Like that is not outside the cards. You could get a 100% um over the course of two months and then the next month get a 50% draw down. That still gives you a 50% average, right?
So that's going right. Right now it's November. I'm saying it's the end of next year when the midterms come up and we're going to see the economy just being juiced and all of this additional bullish tailwind. Who knows? Uh I wouldn't I wouldn't bet against it. Put it that way. If you if you believe that countries are going to continue to debase their currency, if you believe that there's going to be global rise of insecurity owning crypto assets or gold um are assets of fear.
You own these assets of secure. You're frightened of the debasement of your your assets, your finan you're worried about your financial security. You're worried about your physical security and and between crypto assets and gold. They're they believe, you know, there's a strong belief that is a good hedge against optimism.
Dam you were not you were a little The same man who called Bitcoin a scam is now pitching it to heads of state. When think blesses Bitcoin and crypto at large, it's regulation ready. And just like Larry Frink, Wall Street went from mocking Bitcoin to monetizing it. First, they laugh at you, then they copy you.
But here's the interesting thing that he said. If you believe that countries will continue to debase their currency, then gold and crypto are a good investment. They're a hedge against optimism. We're clearly central banks across the globe are betting that countries will continue to debase their dollar.
So much so that gold holdings from central bankers are about to cross their dollar reserve holdings. S&P Global said that Bitcoin is a material weakness on strategies balance sheet, but that's actually dollars. Dollars are the weakness. and the wealthiest people in like let that sink in that you got Larry Frink sitting out here at the financial what is this thing called future investment initiative with heads of state board of change makers geoeconomics these are people from the Middle East um sovereign wealth c countries you know whoever this is a lot of money a lot of influence sitting at this table and you got Larry Frink uh CEO of Black Rockck telling them that if you believe countries will continue to debase their currency, they're going to continue to print more fiat, then having gold and Bitcoin is a hedge.
Like how much again, how much more bullish tailwind do you need? Now, the cool part about this is that these people don't move very quickly. They have to take this information back and then vote and all this other stuff. And just like you're seeing how long it's taking in the US, they adopted a strategic reserve.
Here we are 9 months later and as far as we've seen, no Bitcoin has been purchased, only seized. So you can see the foundation being laid in real time unless you're sleeping. And you still have an opportunity to frontr run these guys because you can go to your local centralized exchange and buy Bitcoin right now with a few clicks and a KYC process.
But it's a hell of a lot faster than what these guys got to go through. And the minute they are in, then it's a game over. And that goes back to Samson Miles suddenly or gradually than suddenly because all it takes is one country deciding, oh, we're going to do Bitcoin back treasury bonds or we're going to monetize our debt and put that on on the Bitcoin blockchain or whatever.
or we're going to sell, you know, our assets or something like that. We're going to print uh existing dollars and buy Bitcoin. Like once that signal goes out, it's game over because it's going to be a rush for everybody to get on the Bitcoin life raft. And remember, there's only 21 million, 20 million of those are already out there in circulation.
Only about 2 million are on centralized exchanges. the rest are sitting in people's wallets and it takes it's going to take more like we've seen right now the amount of Bitcoin being sold by the OGs it's been like about two and a half million I don't have the stats up right now but we'll just call it like you know 12% to 15% of the mine supply that's in people's wallets they have woken up and decided yeah I'll sell a little bit now I'll take a little off the Well, at what price level do they decide to sell more?
And then the key factor is at what price level do people decide, wait a minute, I'm not going to get rid of this finite asset for this one. Like, if you see central banks, nation states printing billions and trillions to try to get you to sell yours, why would you take the fiat? So, something's going to happen, and this is again Samson's mouse um hyper bitcoinization.
There's going to come a point where the people holding the Bitcoin are going to be like, I don't think I want to get rid of my Bitcoin for this fiat anymore. I'm just going to hold on to Bitcoin. And then when that happens, those people are going to be like, well, hey, bro, I'll trade with you Bitcoin to Bitcoin for whatever good service you provide, and then I'll work for you for Bitcoin.
Matter of time, I don't know. Could be sooner rather than later, but that's why the literally the best thing you can do right now is stay humble and stack sats. All right, smash that HBO special. Help brother out. Like, subscribe, comment down below. And until next time, lift daily and achieve your impossible. See you.
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