Bill Gross - ECB Is Running Out Of Bonds To Buy - 7 Dec 16 | Gazunda

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첫 줄: 빌 그로스는 ECB의 채권 매입 여력이 줄어 양적완화 축소가 불가피하며, 이탈리아 국민투표·은행 문제는 근본 해결이 아니라는 입장이다. ECB 양적완화: 유럽 마이너스 금리 채권이 약 15조 달러에서 2~3조 달러로 줄었고, 유럽 금리는 30~40bp 상승했다. 채권 매입 여력이 소진돼 QE가 축소되거나 중단될 것이며, 시장은 이미 이를 반영하기 시작했다. 목요일 ECB 회의의 발언 톤이 중요하다. 이탈리아: 국민투표 결과에 따른 이탈리아 국채 반응은 5~10bp 수준으로 작을 것으로 봤다. 드라기의 대응은 은행 구제(EU·ECB 공동)가 핵심이나, 이는 임시방편이며 부실채권 문제를 덮을 뿐이다. 미국 국채 발행: 스티브 므누신 재무장관 후보의 장기채(장기물) 매각 아이디어에 대해, 자산·부채 듀레이션을 맞추는 측면에서 좋은 아이디어라고 평가했다. 다만 장기물 수요는 금리 보상이 커야 한다. 장기물 프리미엄: 10년·30년 간 격차는 약 70~80bp. 30년 대비 50년·100년물에는 최소 40~50bp 추가 프리미엄이 필요하다고 봤다. 그는 과도한 보상이 없으면 50년·100년물은 매수하지 않겠다고 했다. 금리 전망: 전반적으로 장기 금리 상승(정상화) 흐름을 전제로 하며, 마이너스 금리 정책의 경제성장 저해를 지적했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. um I want to switch over to Europe really quickly here because the European Central Bank meeting is on Thursday what might we expect to hear from Mario dragi on QE because if he doesn't extend the program it could be construed by investors as tightening I think so and and the the language will be important the press conference will be important it always is I I think ultimately investors have to expect uh because the ECB is running out of bonds to buy that you know the quantitative easing program will be reduced if not um eliminated at some point I mean uh the market to a certain extent has already beg to anticipate that instead of $15 trillion doll worth of negative yielding Bonds in uh Euro land we now have two or three trillion and so yields have gone up um you know in in the EU uh by 30 or 40 basis points almost as much as they've gone up in the United States so um you know the real world is is coming back uh to to bear in in in terms of these Central Bank policies that stressed negative interest rates that ultimately in my view and I think in central Bankers view maybe even in dy's view um you are delerious to economic growth as opposed to positive do you think the Italian referendum changes how Mario dragi moves forward with policy well I you know I think he he suggested uh beforehand that uh whatever it takes um in terms of a potential negative reaction in terms of Italian bonds that it uh you know it was a five or 10 basis point moment but not much I I think the most important thing obviously are are the uh situations with the Italian Banks and and the stance that the uh the EU and the ECB jointly take in terms of uh you know potentially bailing them out uh uh in any case it's not a a positive for the Italian eon it's merely a a smooth over paliative that uh you I think covers up lots of lots of problems in Italy and and perhaps in other countries as well that have non-performing loans that simply uh can't uh be dismissed and and swept under the road right now we mentioned earlier the supply of bonds out there in the European context let's bring it back to the United States Steve minuchin who is Donald Trump's pick for treasury secretary floated the idea of selling longer dated treasuries to cushion the effect of rising interest rates what do you think of this proposal well I think it's a good idea it was a better idea of for basis points ago but those are short-term considerations uh you know to the extent that a country tries to match its um liabilities those being the bonds with its assets that being the longevity of the country which uh in in United States is a 00 uh 200 centuries uh you know long uh type of proposition then then all the better U because it locks in a low rate of financing and gives investors perhaps uh you know a choice for a higher yielding treasury as opposed to a lower yielding Treasury and it um you know to a to a certain extent allows investors to to move out on a yield curve uh if they think that uh that interest rates aren't moving up very much I myself wouldn't be a a buyer of a 50 or 100e treasury unless it offered a an extreme uh reward in terms of a higher yield but um we'll have to see over the next six months right can you quantify what you mean by an extreme higher yield well uh you know what's the markup in terms of the the tens and 30s uh you know probably about 70 80 basis points what would be the markup uh between a 30 and a 50 or a 30 and a 100 we we get some type of idea in in terms of the foreign markets I I I would say that uh you know there should be at least a 40 to 50 basis point premium on a longer term issue it would you know carry a duration uh if 50 years or if a 100 Years of of uh you know significantly higher proportion relative to a 10 or even to a 30 so an investor would have to be cautious and therefore demand that type of reward for the uh maturity extension