저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준 독립성 훼손 시 달러·인플레 위기 우려, 트럼프 정책이 달러 약화. 금 장기 상승(10,000달러 이상 가능), 은도 상승 전망. 임박한 주권부채 위기 경고, 실업률 실질 10% 이상 주장, 인플레 재가속 속 금리 인하는 부적절. 크립토는 펌프앤덤프 사기로 규정.
다듬은 글
The Supreme Court I don't think is going to enforce the Constitution to the degree that it should. So the reason the Federal Reserve is independent is because the Constitution doesn't give the US government authority to print money. Now I don't expect the current Supreme Court to recognize that they're not going to overturn uh 100 years of history of paper money.
I don't think I mean they should do that but I don't believe they will. So I think what they will do is say that the concept of an independent Fed is unconstitutional and that the government needs to have more control over the Fed. That's going to be, you know, it's it's like two wrongs don't make a right.
Just because we shouldn't have a Fed doesn't mean that the the president should get to control it. But I think that's the direction that they're likely to head is say that there's nothing in the constitution that authorizes a fourth branch of government. Uh and therefore um the Fed must come under the purview of the existing branches and it can't really have this independence because the constitution never provided for it.
I think they're willing to make that ruling. I don't think they're willing to rule that the Constitution doesn't give the federal government the power to create money, to print money, uh, which is what the Fed is doing. So, I think we're going to get a decision that actually results in a worse outcome than the one we have now.
I mean, I would rather have an independent Fed conducting this policy, even if independence is partially an illusion versus just having the federal government exercise this unconstitutional power directly. That would be even worse because inflation would be even worse. Uh, if the government uh was directly in charge of the printing press, it would officially make the United States the world's largest banana republic.
just without the bananas. You know, everything that Trump is doing is bad for the dollar. Um the tariff policy, uh the big beautiful bill, the disaster that he's doing with Fanny and Freddy May, um what he's doing with um the Fed. I mean, it's probably the worst combination of of of of policies that I've ever seen under any any any presidential administration.
So, if your goal was to destroy the value of the dollar, uh, the Trump administration is most likely to succeed more than any other administration I' I've I've seen. Trump doesn't want the dollar to go down. I mean, he's threatened other countries with sanctions and tariffs if they don't prop up the dollar.
So, he understands how important the strong dollar is, but he doesn't understand how his own policies are going to substantially weaken the dollar. Um, but you know, the consequence by the time Trump finishes his term, the you know, we're going to be in such a massive disaster as far as runaway inflation and uh, you know, the economy and and interest rates.
I mean, long-term interest rates. I mean, everything that the administration is doing is going to blow up and have adverse consequences, severely adverse consequences. and and it's going to basically roll out the red carpet for the next Democratic president who will be very very leftwing. I mean, you know, you know, like an AOC Bernie Sanders type.
That's what we're laying the foundation for. While gold's hitting record highs, silver is still, you know, 20% or so 20 from its record high. So, it's got a ways to go. But, yeah, gold got above 3,570 yesterday. It's pulled back a bit today, but it's still about 3550. And silver is hanging out now above 40.
It got above 41 yesterday, back below 41 today. But certainly when it comes to gold, I wasn't early. I mean, I started recommending gold uh in the late 1990s when it was under $300 an ounce. So, you know, if you bought it back then, it's more than 10 times what it was. And I've been constantly telling people over the last 25 years to own gold and gold has outperformed the US stock market over those 25 years.
Uh so following my advice on owning gold uh has been correct. Now there was a period of time about 10 years where the price of gold went sideways and so during that time people started to say oh you see Peter Schiff is wrong. Look gold's not going anywhere. you know, they forgot how much it went up before it went sideways, and now it's not going sideways anymore.
It's going up again. And so, I expect this next move to carry gold, you know, up into a five-digit uh number, you know, so above $10,000 uh dollars. I don't know what the first digit is going to be. I mean, it may be a one, it may be a two, it may be a three. I mean, it's a moving target, but the price of gold is going a lot higher.
So, too will the price of silver. So people should be be buying it. Um cuz all of the reasons that I laid out 25 years ago for buying gold and silver, all those reasons not only still exist, but they're stronger than ever because the underlying problems that we had 25 years ago have simply gotten worse over the past 25 years.
Much worse, right? Uh and so the case for gold and silver are stronger than ever. Uh which is why people should, you know, buy it. Don't don't think I've missed the boat. It's too late. Uh and not even close to too late. I think it's pretty obvious that a sovereign debt crisis is coming. I mean, one of the the reasons that Donald Trump publicly admits for the Fed to cut rates is because the US government has so much debt and you know, it's a burden to service the debt at the current rate of interest and that the Fed needs to lower rates to bring down the cost of servicing our debt.
Uh well that's you know really an admission that the debt is unsustainable. I mean we we obviously can't repay it but Donald Trump is saying we can't even service it. Um we need lower rates but that basically is what's going to be the catalyst for the crisis because our creditors the lenders don't want to lend us the money at the lower rates.
They need higher rates to compensate for the risk of the, you know, depreciation of the currency and inflation. And if we're going to tell creditors, we're not going to pay you a high enough interest to give you a real return and compensate for the risk you're taking of having your principal and interest debased.
Well, they're not they're not going to want to buy our debt. And there you have a sovereign debt crisis. There's no buyers for our paper except the Federal Reserve. But when the Federal Reserve buys US government debt, it has to create inflation to do it. So when you have a debt crisis, you have an inflation crisis and you have a dollar crisis.
And that's going to be far worse than the garden uh uh variety financial crisis we had in 2008. First of all, that the the economic data is is is is not reliable at all. I think the unemployment rate is only low because of the fraudulent way it's being measured. Even if you took the government's own official U6 number, we've got about 8% unemployment, which is high unemployment.
U6 is far more accurate than what they report. But even U6 sugar coats it. So the real unemployment rate in this country is well north of 10%. So we have high unemployment. We have a weak labor market. And in fact, we have an even weaker labor market today than what we had a year ago under Biden. But on the flip side, inflation is getting worse.
At least in the last few years of the B administration, the trajectory of inflation was down. Not not because Biden was doing anything about it, just because we had a big spike up and then we kind of drifted back. But now you have uh the trajectory rising. We have strengthening inflation. So inflation is stronger and the labor market is weaker today than it was a year ago.
Uh but rate cuts are not justified just because the economy is weak. We need rate hikes because inflation is strong and getting stronger, but the Fed is not only not delivering the rate hikes that we need, they're about to deliver rate cuts that we don't need. I look at just the money supply and credit because credit growth and money supply growth, that's what's being inflated.
Uh so that's what you look at. But if you want to just look at the the consequence of inflation, which is or one consequence is prices going up, you need to look at the prices themselves. You can't look at government indexes that purport to measure those prices because those indexes have been engineered to come up with a low number.
That's just how they're designed. So it's not that people get a high number and then they fudge the numbers. The methodology, the the computational formula is designed to reduce the increase. So if prices actually went up by 5%, the CPI might report they went up by 2.5%. Right? So what I what I would suggest is don't look at what the CPI claims prices are doing.
Look to the actual prices and see what they're doing. And I don't know how long it might take before the Fed reverses course and tries to correct its mistakes um if it connects its mistakes to the outcome that they're observing. But I think right now I mean Trump Trump is all about political expediency.
So it's not about what's doing what's good for the country. It's what's going to make his image appear better in the short run. Uh, and you know, the other thing he's concerned about is making money for his family and his friends and his donors. So, he does things that may lead to personal gain rather than uh the best interests of the country.
All of the attention to crypto has got nothing to do with the crypto industry being an important industry or America needing to lead the world. I mean, why the hell would we need to lead the world in digital Ponzi schemes and pyramids? Uh, you know, this is all a fraud. The reason that Donald Trump is saying this stuff is to pump up the valuations of cryptoreated businesses that his friends and family are heavily invested in and the tokens.
Uh so it's all a giant pump and dump scheme where the pumpers now are the Trump administration and the dumpers are uh people close to the administration or within the administration donors to the campaign or friends of the president or family members. They are unloading all these overpriced shares and tokens on the gullible uh American public who are foolish enough to buy these things based on all the hype that is being generated uh by the Trump administration.
So it's a giant fraud that's being uh you know uh pulled off on the public uh by the government. So, I it's it's I've never seen anything like it.
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