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마이클 버리의 팔란티어·엔비디아 대규모 풋(하락 베팅) 포지션을 두고 토론. 진행자는 버리의 과거 예측 실패(2021 비트코인 공매도, 2023 S&P 50% 폭락 예측 등)를 들어 그의 포지션을 개인 투자 기준으로 삼기 어렵다고 주장하며, 엔비디아·팔란티어 장기 보유 의사를 밝힘. 다만 팔란티어 밸류에이션은 매우 높아 우려된다고 인정. AI 버블 조정은 올 수 있으나 엔비디아는 해당 안 됨, 방산 기술 수요는 지속될 것이라는 견해.
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uh Michael Bur some very somebody that um has become extremely famous in the world of investing from you know legendary big short position but he's been very controversial since then. Um he made some big uh puts and bets to the downside on um some of the top technology companies. Palanteer heavy heavy uh bet on the downside to Palanteer and a heavy bet on the downside to Nvidia came out last week and then you know both of their stocks had stumbled last week not necessarily because of that but you know the market itself had has stumbled and then you had CEOs of Goldman Sachs and a few other companies saying that you know we're going to have a fall in the market in the next 12 months or so and then there's been constant talks of the AI bubble.
So, picked up today on on news that the government shutdown is going to be over soon. Um, but for people that's invested in Palunteer and Nvidia, um, is he on to something? Um, I love Michael Bur. I want to preface that. Um, one of the greatest trades in American history through what he did and calling that bubble, which he called that Moody's.
Um, but for all my traders and investors, the thing that I cannot stress is a stock club. You don't know what his parameters are for a winning trade. So, he may have a billion dollars in puts on Palunteer and Nvidia and he may only want 12% gain and you're deciding what to do over the next five years off of his filings.
Um, I remain long on Nvidia and Palanteer. Even though I don't like the company for what it does, the more I listen to Alex Karp, the more of an amazing CEO I wish I mean I think he is and I wish he was at another one of my favorite companies. I won't say which one. Um but I do like his hood spa. Um the I was the first one to say, hey, the crash and correction is going to come in 2027.
But Nvidia is not going to be one of the companies that crashes in 27. And Palanteer, ironically enough, given who has influence in the White House being Peter Thiel, his company is almost too big to fail as well. So when you're looking at someone else's portfolio, a, you need to know if they're holding for long-term or short-term, and B, if you don't know what their metric is for a winning trade, you can't base your long-term portfolio off of their move.
He may need 20% to deliver to deliver alpha to his clients which in the options trade is really easy to get and he's been wrong. I mean a couple years ago he said sell everything. I was like everything I was going there. Can I go there? Go ahead. So there is merit. I will say this. This is a brilliant mind.
We're not going to discredit him. Yeah, for sure. One of the greatest of all time and and really quick stop saying he only got one thing right. He managed his capital and his own capital for decades and never went broke while fighting the government and big banks in that trade. He's been right a bunch of times and has been right, but he's got a couple of them wrong.
And I think this is one of them. My bad. Even Even if he got the one thing right, that's the one thing, right? Like if if if you made a billion, you Hey, who I only need one hand? I only need it once. I only need to make it there once. Um there there's a part of it that that has merit and that's the the oversized valuation of the company when we're talking about Palunteer.
So the amount of money I mean this these are large sums that he he's put shorts on. So it's I think uh roughly a billion dollars that he he's put in shorts. I think 170 is uh Nvidia shorts and then you have about 890 to 9 some number like that for from Palanteer for that. Alex Karp the CEO of Panta said he's batshit crazy but the valuation if you look at it from Ponte is extremely high extremely high and that is concerning
does it have to go to war into 2028 well certain things have to happen in order for that right uh and everybody that we talked to in the tech world is like hey we def the feds tech is the wave and we're seeing it happen it's happening in a lot of the global tensions that are happening or have happened especially this year uh this defense tech is being tested and being used
I want to run down the list of the the times when over the past five years so most people especially in market Monday's world have didn't live through the great recession uh when Michael Berry actually uh that one right but they have been here since 2020 so in 2021 uh some of the glaring misses uh he he actually shorted Bitcoin in March of20 21 Bitcoin was at 31,000.
Uh by September of March of 21, it was at 64,000. So there was a miss there. Uh he then said this is before IPO for Robin Hood at IPOed. Uh Robin Hood was turning the market into a dangerous casino and took positions against that. Obviously we've seen what Robin Hood has done since IPO and has had a miraculous run this year.
It's been one of the best stocks performed. Uh there was that moment in January of 2023 and I think you were kind of alluding to that Ian where he famously said to sell uh because there was going to be one of the biggest crashes of all. He was calling them the mother of crashes where the S&P would perhaps fall 50%.
Um in 202 50% crash the probability is less than 3%. I love Michael, but [clears throat] well, the the S&P uh rose 21% in 2023. Uh NASDAQ was up 27. I think uh the uh Dow Jones was up uh 24. So, he was off and to that he apologized, right? He said apologized to his credit, he apologized for it. So, if you're using him as a metric, now should you be trading, like you said, you don't know what his incentive is uh or what he's looking at.
If you're using him solely, these statistics would would tell you, you know what, probably not the best thing. Can you see some of the reasons why he's saying this? Yeah, the merit inside of Palunteer. Nvidia, I don't think there's the same case. Um, so I I'm interested. I I couldn't get the the the tea leaves on why why Nvidia outside the obviously the AI story and that that constant fear of that bubble word inside of AI, but I'm with you.
I'm glad you said it tonight. There is going to be a moment of correction inside the space and some companies won't exist, but that's not the one. That's not one. And lastly, uh uh investors and traders, we can suffer from traders delusion. Meaning the thing that caused and produced our biggest trade, we think that's going to work for every asset class.
So because his big win was the big short him I've said it before the big long pause is the movie that you guys should be running in your own life because you should be long all tech bitcoin which is tech uh and even the reason why gold went up so much is because China UAE and other countries in bricks were buying gold and net net positive buyers of gold.
Um, so sometimes you can be so focused on trying to recreate a win and that's not the natural direction of an asset. Most assets are rigged to stay up. Even with Palanteer, not the biggest fan of what they do personally, but if I have the backing of who funded me, the same way Apple will make that iPhone 11 not work or iPhone 12 not work as well when a new one comes out.
You don't think they can manufacture a crisis to make Palanteer go up to 300? You can manufacture a cool kurfuffle internationally to make sure something happens to make the value. And also too, if they're telling you Sam is next, but in that darling IPO class, Palmer's right there at Ander. So if Ander is valuable, that's also going to drive up the value of Palanteer because now you have comps for defense tech.
Yeah, I think that's the piece that we don't we don't think about, right? Like if we're talking about defense tech, defense tech, at some point they got to test this thing out. Test what? The defense technology that they're actually making. They have tested out. They're not testing out, they're using it.
This is what I'm saying, right? And so he kind of alluded to it and that's why I'm like allegedly like sometimes crisises or conflicts are created are just reason. Well, they'll use some of them drones to spot here. Go. Go ahead, Rashad. Not here, but the states, please. Please. Yeah, the states. You don't need even if you don't use it, you still you're still gonna buy it.
You still gonna buy if you don't use it. So, like if somebody else has a gun that is bigger than your gun, then you got to get a gun. Then you got to get a bazooka. Then you got to get a hawk. But you might not ever actually use it, but it's the idea of fear through intimidation. If you know that I have something that can completely obliterate your whole entire country in one second,
you're going to be a little bit more, you know, cautious how you how you handle the business. So, their technology is getting used currently as far as the surveillance as far as um face recognition, as far as drones that's getting used in America and and other countries currently. Mhm. But everything that they're developing is going to have to be purchased because nobody wants to have the weaker arsenal.
You can't afford to, especially with the dollar falling and crisis arising, bad leadership in a country. Can't afford to. and America searching for IPO and publicly traded darlings to help the debt situation not be worse. Like I ask everyone all the time, is America better or worse off without Nvidia?
They are the two new big to I know people keep saying well it's like Cisco or like Enron. No, they're actually producing at a high level. They are the pillar that's keeping the American economy afloat. Meanwhile, China's open sourcing everything to try and beat us. And when people have an issue with spend, we're we're spending that much capital and forcing people to work together so China doesn't beat us.
Even Apple and Bay, we can't get the AI thing down. Can we just pay you to fix our AI? We're seeing old partnerships come back that once died and now Tim Cook and Google CEO are sitting down figuring that part out and it's working pretty well. Yeah, that that that search number just went up just when we thought that it went.
But that you're right, man. This is and this is why we kind of started that conversation last week of like who's the most important and we're talking about national security for the next I mean foreseeable future. This is a company that has to be protected and is I mean we could say too big to feel at this
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