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joining us now Ed yardeni he's the president of yardeni research it's good to see you thank you Scott what a remarkable turn huh since we're down 5% or so on the S&P wondering whether we're going to have a 10% correction from there and here we are less than a percent away from another new record high what what what should we make of this well it's clearly still very much of a bull market I thought we could have a 5 to 10% correction we we had something a little bit over 5% uh looks like we're not going to have anything like 10% I think what we make of it is that the economic Outlook remains really quite positive I think inflation is going to continue to moderate I think the economy is going to continue to grow and I think uh that means that earnings are going to continue to head up probably not to a new high in the first quarter when the all numbers come out but I think over the next couple of quarters we're going to make new record highs in in earnings so I see the market moving higher I mean let's let's kick earnings around if you would um because I I know where the Outlook is but if you look at what just happened in earning season and it's for all intents purposes over the growth was all from the mega caps right I what are we going to do less than 5% total earnings growth maybe around five but the majority of that really came from a very very select group of stocks what why should we believe that that's going to turn well we we are quite optimistic on overall corporate profits uh last year they they came in at $222 per share for the S&P 500 uh we're thinking 250 this year 270 next year and 300 the the uh in 2026 and uh the reason for that is I think profit margins are going to continue to expand to all-time record highs we have seen profit margins going up and you're absolutely right uh some of that leadership and higher profit margins have curly been from the mega cap names but Scott you know it is what it is I mean we're talking about uh roughly 30% of the S&P 500 market cap being dominated by eight eight names and they're not going away and they're going to continue to be an important part of the the market we got a forward PE of about 21 with them and we got a forward PE of 17 without them so uh the market doesn't look cheap when you look look at uh at the overall Market but then you got to consider what you're getting uh for your money and you're getting some pretty amazing companies what about the sector shakeup if we want to call it that this week is good evidence of it right the sectors that have done really well this week and technology is not going to be mentioned by me other than than telling you that it's not in there what do we make of that do you believe in this broadening finally and for good because I you know I've asked you and others at times when you know we we've broadened out and it's fizzled will it this time well you you know I think part of the broadening issue has been that the mega cap 8 as as I like could call them I watch a lot of movies so I'm throwing n Netflix into the mega cap 7 and a lot of those stocks have uh really seen their price appreciation stock price appreciation so great that by comparison other stocks that are up maybe a ping 20% since the beginning of the bull market don't look all that exciting so a lot of the breath issue has really been just a mega outperformance by the mega cap stocks yeah but I mean I'm thinking like utilities this week financials have done incredibly well what when you look at utilities most people look at utilities they say well I mean it's a yield play you know that's where you it's defensive now I I I hear the overwhelming majority of people suggest now these are just more AI offense plays and absolutely others would suggest well that's going to end in tears now now we're now we've taken utilities to the point of their AI place too well I think I've mentioned to you before my pet thesis here is that uh all stocks are technology stocks you either make technology or you use technology if you don't do that then you're out of business you're going to be competed out of business by companies that are using technology or making it and so yeah I think the market is actually broadening out in the way that makes a lot of sense to me utilities clearly are going to be big beneficiaries of tremendous demand for power uh to power the uh the data centers and and make this all work and the notion of you know what we heard today from the FED speakers who are out in force which certainly tilted a little more hawkish now the FED chare obviously didn't or at least that's the read assuming we're reading that correctly no you're right I think what do you make of that well look I um I don't think the economy needs a any change in rates it certainly doesn't need a rates to go up and I don't think it needs rates to go down I think we've normalized interest rates we're back to where interest rates were before the great financial crisis before the great abnormal between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis so I'm very comfortable with the rates here the stock market seems to be very comfortable with it uh I am concerned that the FED might uh just take any bit of evidence that the economy is slowing and lower interest rates and and my concern would be that that would be too much of a good thing we could have a melt-up situation in in that scenario so I'm rooting for things to pretty much remain uh even keel here and I think that'll remain very positive for the market we are we are we giving too much Credence to the notion that the consumer is just going to hang in there uh forever cuz the data this week was squirly on that front and if you put Starbucks the recent earnings report in the mix and some others too um I'm not necessarily sure that we come away from all of that feeling great I think the consumer is U got a lot of a lot of different stories in the consumer it's not just one story I think you've got a lot of baby boomers that are retiring and the Baby Boomers have 75 trillion dollars in net worth uh it's the richest uh cohort of uh demographically that we've ever had and they're spending money like crazy they're going on tours they're going to entertainment venues they're going to restaurants they're traveling and they're going to the Health Care system and that's creating a whole bunch of jobs and all those kind of Serv on the other hand you do have people that are struggling with consumer credit and a lot of them are actually younger folks and I think what we're missing here is there's a lot of intra generational support going on where the Baby Boomers I think are paying some of the credit card bills and uh some of the mortgage down payments uh for for the younger generation so I I I know this from a personal experience that but I also know it's for my friends
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