저자: TraderForTomorrow채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 에스코츠(Escorts)는 단기 저항대 돌파 여부에 따라 방향이 갈리는 상태이며, 장기 투자는 현 가격대에서 하방 리스크가 커 비추천. 종목 개요: 에스코츠는 농기계·건설장비·철도장비를 생산하며 본사는 하리아나주 파리다바드. 라케시 준준왈라가 2018년 말 기준 1,000만 주(지분 8.61%) 보유. 단기 셋업: 현재 가격은 저항대에 있으며, 저항을 돌파하지 못하면 560~580 지지대까지 하락 가능성. 옵션 체인상 820~840 행사가에 콜옵션 미결제약정이 쌓여 저항으로 작용. 단기 추세선: 추세선을 상향 돌파한 상태로 하락추세가 상승추세로 전환될 가능성이 있으나, 거짓 돌파 시 지지대로 재하락 가능성도 언급. 피보나치 되돌림: 하락 구간의 61.8% 수준(‘데스존’)에 위치. 이 구간을 상향 돌파하지 못하면 하락 추세 지속. 장기 셋업(주봉): 100주 및 200주 이동평균 채널 기준 상승추세. 약 120루피에서 매수 신호 발생, 현재 약 800루피로 약 8배 상승. 다만 추세 중반 진입은 위험하며 트레일링 스톱을 알아야 한다고 강조. 200 이평 채널 근접 시 지지 반응을 확인하면 매수 기회. 장기 투자 견해: 현 가격에서 장기 투자는 지지 않음 — 하방 리스크는 크고 상방은 무한정이 아니라고 판단하기 어려운 구조로 제시. 피보나치 확장 목표: 직전 고점 → 127.20%(약 1,262루피) → 약 1,570루피 → 161.8%(데스존). RSI: 주봉 RSI는 60 이상으로 긍정적이나 RSI 이동평균이 60 아래라 60 상회 전까지 대기 권고. 월봉에서는 RSI 9기간 이평이 45기간 이평 위로 올라와야 상승 탄력. 장기 VWAP: 장기 VWAP 위에서 거래 중이며 매도 VWAP도 상회해 매수세 우위로 해석. 다만 VWAP 위 큰 양봉 확인이 추가로 필요. 상대강도: 2016년 이후 니프티를 지속 상회했으나 2018년 4월 이후 부진, 현재는 니프티가 소폭 우위. 상대강도 회복 여부가 관건. 전반 결론: 단기 방향은 저항 돌파 여부에 달려 있고, 장기 관점에서는 추세 중반 진입 위험을 경계하며 현 가격 장기 매수는 비추천.
다듬은 글
Subscribe to our YouTube channel and press the bell icon to get live stock market videos and trading strategies. According to December 2018 fillings Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had 10 million shares of escorts group. In this video, we will talk about this company, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's investment in it and we will analyse it using advanced technical analysis to check if we can still invest in this company or not.
So, let's begin. First of all, let's discuss the basic details about this company. Escorts Group deals in 3 type of products. Agri Machinery, Construction Equipment and Railway Equipment. This company operates in India as well as in other countries. This company has it's headquarter in Faridabad, Haryana.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala invested in this company a long ago. According to trendlyne dot com till end of 2018 Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had 10 million shares of this company. And his total holding was 8.61%. But is it worth investing today? And what is Technical Analysis indicating about this stock in short term and in long term.
Firstly, let's discuss a short term trading setup. Right now, price is at a Resistance Zone. If price has to go up from here then price has to cross this resistance zone otherwise price will fall from here to 560-580 Zone. And this same thing is confirmed by option chain too where 820-840 strikes are acting as resistance because at these strike price, calls options have huge open interest build.
It means that many big players are betting that it will go down from here. If price actually wants to go up then firstly this zone till 840 has to be crossed. And if market is able to cross it then short building will be converted into short covering which will trigger strong up move. But for now, there is a chance of price going down from here till this support zone.
So if you want to buy in short term then wait for the price to cross this resistance zone first. When we drew this trend line in this short term chart, we saw that price has already crossed this trend line to the upside. So there is a good chance that this down trend can be shifted to an up trend. But, if false break out occurs from here then price may come down to this support zone.
It is also a possibility which we should not discount yet. In our next short term setup, When we used this down move to draw Fibonacci Retracement, we saw that price is currently at 61.8% level of this down move. If price has to go up, then it has to cross this 61.8% mark to the upside. This zone is called Death Zone.
If this zone is not crossed, then trend can be continued to the downside. This is simply confirming our previous setup. Now let's talk about our next Long Term Setup in Weekly Time Frame Chart. We'll use 2 indicators in this setup. 100 Period Moving Average Channel and 200 Period Moving Average Channel.
We talked about this setup in the "Best 4 Indicator" Video. If you haven't watched that video yet, then you can click on the Link Above or Link in the description to watch it right now. According to this setup, if 100 Moving Average Channel is above 200 Moving Average Channel then it means Up Trend is going on.
And we can buy for long term. According to this setup, buy was triggered around ₹120. And right now price is around ₹800. Meaning, if you invested that time, then your money would have been 8 times by now. According to this setup, now too, up trend is going on. But the concern is, price is already far away from the starting point of the trend.
Entering mid way in a trend is not safe. You should only enter in a midway trend if you know Stop Loss Trailing. If you don't know Stop Loss Trailing, then you should not enter in middle of an ongoing trend. About stop loss, if you notice closely, whenever price comes close to 200 Moving Average Channel it acts as a good Support Zone, and price reacts to it and continues its up trend.
So, next time if you find price close to it, and you get price action confirmation with it, then it can be a good opportunity to Buy in the trend. Track this chart actively and when you see the opportunity, then you can buy and get benefited from this ongoing trend. Talking about Long Term Investment using this setup RIGHT NOW, then I am not in favor of investment at the current price for Long Term.
Because down side risk is huge and up side is Indefinite. In our list, next setup is also a Long Term Setup. Where we used this Big Up Move to calculate the retracement levels. We found out that this recent down move retraced to 50% level. This means, up trend is still going on. If up trend continues from here, as in, if price break its previous high then we can see further upside.
For target, we'll go to its setting and click on Reverse. And now we have our Targets. 1st Target is 127.20% level which is at 1262. So if previous high is crossed then we can see this target. And after this next target is at around 1570 which means, a huge move to the upside. So if you planning to buy Right Now then first target is previous high.
Then 127.20% level. And then 161.8% level which is also known as Death Zone of a trend. But remember, this is a long term trend. So price, if goes till that point, will take a lot of time. So if you are investing, you must invest for a long term. Next Setup is RSI Analysis. RSI is above 60 at the moment.
As per advanced RSI Analysis if RSI is between 60 and 80 then is believed to be in a Positive Momentum. So RSi right now is above 60 in weekly time frame, which is Good. But the concern at the moment is Moving Average of RSI which is below 60 at the moment. If you look into the past whenever RSI moving average sustains above 60 there we see a good move to the upside.
But right now, RSI moving average is below 60. So it's better to wait for it to come above 60 for a better momentum move. When we switched to a more advanced analysis in this chart in monthly time frame, we applied 45 period moving average to RSI. If you look this chart closely, you'll notice that when RSI 9 period moving average is above 45 period moving average then we see a good up move.
But right now, it is below 45 period moving average which is not a good sign. So long term term investing it is better if you wait till 9 period moving average to come above 45 period moving average. Then you may see a better move to the upside. But if you trading short term, then this should not have any effect on that.
Next setup is Long-Term Volume Weighted Average Price. if you have done intraday trading then you must be used VWAP indicator in the past. This is the long term version of that same indicator. This indicator is used by big institutions to Buy or Sell in the market. Right now, you can see the Buying VWAP on my screen.
So big institutions start buying whenever price comes on it. Right now, price is above VWAP so buying is still happening in the market. If you look closely, then selling started few weeks ago. So it was important that we apply Selling VWAP to check if selling is still going on or not. But, as we can see, price can now sustain above this Selling VWAP which means, selling, if happening, is not that strong at the moment, compared to buying.
So it looks like a positive sign for the upside for now atleast. But still we are waiting for big green candles to form above the VWAP. If we can see big green candles above VWAP then it will be a good add-on to our confidence. Not let's talk about our last setup where we are comparing stock with Nifty.
Because we should only invest in stock if it giving more returns than the stock market index. Because, otherwise it is better to invest in Stock Market Index itself (ETF) Because index is comparatively safer. We can see that this stock has continuously outperformed Nifty since 2016. This stock lagged behind, especially after April 2018 But now it is trying to catch up with the stock market index.
Let's see if it can build strength from here or not. Because if it can, then we can see extraordinary returns in this stock. But at the moment Nifty is slightly outperforming this stock. So these were all the setups for Short Term and Long Term. I hope you learnt many things from this video. If you want us to cover some other stock, price write the stock's name in the comment below.
We'll try to bring it's analysis video as soon as possible. So, do you like our video? If yes, then please press the LIKE button. If not, then press the dislike button. And please send your feedback and suggests in the comments below. So that's it of now. That's it for today. Thank you so much. And Happy Trading!
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