저자: 미상 · 한국인
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SOXL/TQQQ는 엘리엇 파동상 3파 상승 초입이며 2024년 중반까지 상승이 이어진다고 주장. 30달러 부근 지지와 14달러 저점을 근거로 70~80달러, 100달러 이상까지 전망. 2년 이상 장기 상승 추세를 전제하며, 6월에도 조정 없는 상승을 예상. 파동 해석에 기반한 매도 목표 제시.
다듬은 글
Hello, today I will proceed with the analysis of SOXL. Before watching the video, I would greatly appreciate it if you take a moment to hit the like button. In the previous video, I mentioned that both TQQQ and SOXL are in a period of strong upward momentum, and I discussed the conclusion of the flat correction wave for the intermediate wave of the upward phase, and explained that after the second wave retracement of the first upward wave, the third wave is set to surge forward immediately.
Therefore, I emphasized that both TQQQ and SOXL are in a phase where the strongest upward movements are occurring. As mentioned, after the second wave retracement of the first upward wave, you can observe the immediate formation of a long bullish candlestick. By examining the overall trend, you can see that the correction wave for the short-term upward movement might follow an abc pattern.
Even if the abc pattern occurs, I mentioned that a strong upward wave reversing this pattern will emerge once again. I will tell you about the format of the rising wave that gives abc and renews the high point, and the format of abc adjustment until the 1st and 2nd wave retracement. Even if a correction occurs, there will be another upward reversal.
In this reversal phase, the retracement pattern of the second wave following the first upward wave will also appear. I've discussed both the upward movements and corrections from the perspective of smaller waves as well as intermediate waves, and the market is following exactly as mentioned. Based on SOXL, the first upward wave started at around 30 dollars.
In this segment, I mentioned that for the intermediate wave scenarios, we need to consider both the second wave correction following the first upward wave and the fourth wave correction following the third upward wave. By examining the size of the correction wave, I stated that it should be viewed in terms of the ratio between the first and second waves rather than the third and fourth waves.
Considering 45 dollars as the endpoint of the correction wave, I can expect another upward wave that will surpass the previous high. Using 45 dollars as a reference, I discussed another trend reversal, noting that SOXL is currently in a phase where it is yielding a short-term gain of 22%. I am talking about the sequential progression towards the final targets of 70 and 80 dollars, and upon reaching these price levels, investors can expect to achieve gains of 50% and 80%, respectively.
However, this trend has been continuing since around April 2024, starting from the 30-dollar mark. SOXL is currently in a phase where it has achieved an 80% gain over approximately two months, starting from the 30-dollar mark. This is a phase where similar patterns are repeating. In this context, if we consider this as a major wave, then the recent correction wave I mentioned would follow the pattern of an abc correction of intermediate wave size.
In other words, understanding and distinguishing these patterns can allow for a consistent profitability in the market over the next two years. With 30 dollars as a reference point for the completion of the overall correction wave, I mentioned that a major upward movement equivalent to the upward wave seen throughout the 1st half of the year will continue until the second half of 2024.
Furthermore, I mentioned that such an upward movement will also proceed in the form of five waves once again. At the 30-dollar mark, we were able to confirm support at the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618. Therefore, discussing the trend reversal with 30 dollars as a reference point for the abc pattern, we can observe that the current pattern perfectly aligns with all the segments of the first half of the year and the previous year.
So the mid- to long-term trend has already been confirmed. Understanding that we are simply analyzing details within this framework highlights how crucial this time period of the past year has been. To discuss SOXL's medium to long-term trend, spanning over two years or more, it's essential to understand the counting of the entire waves in SOXL's movement.
Let’s take a look at the soxl 12-hour chart. This moment is precisely where I mentioned that strong upward movement would emerge based on the recent segment observed on the 12-hour chart. In the context of the overall trend, discussing this segment is just a small part of the entire picture. The recent videos I mentioned were about short-term predictions within the timeframe contained within this segment.
SOXL has been in a phase of trend reversal since 2022, forming a complex correction of five waves, culminating in a triple three pattern. In this segment, I discussed the conclusion of the correction waves across Nasdaq, SOXL, TQQQ, Nvidia, Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market, marking the end of the liquidity-driven market correction.
I mentioned that a prolonged uptrend race is expected to unfold over the next 2 to 3 years or more. This position is very important. At that time, SOXL peaked around $28 in August 2023 before undergoing a correction. Following the rebound from $28, SOXL might experience a correction down to around $16, forming the c wave after the b wave.
If this pattern unfolds as described, with the formation of an expanding diagonal pattern in that segment, a strong third wave upward movement is likely to follow after the completion of the subsequent correction wave. This is a very typical and textbook wave pattern where, starting from the first wave position, an expanding diagonal pattern occurs, followed by an abc correction wave, and then a strong third wave upward movement.
So, we have identified the progression of the correction wave from the 1st wave expanding leading diagonal pattern in SOXL. So, when the expanding diagonal pattern emerges, we should anticipate a correction and be mindful of the associated risks. And while tracking such trends, I also mentioned the possibility of further lows after the rebound of the b wave.
If this segment was to form a rebound with the b wave and then move downwards with the c wave, it should have dropped more abruptly all at once. However, when a rebound occurs in such ambiguous positions, it often indicates the formation of the overall triple three pattern. The key point is that, based on the ratio between price and the correction wave, a correction down to around $14 could occur.
I provided an example of such a classic expanding diagonal pattern after the 1st wave, followed by a correction wave, to illustrate this point. Afterward, SOXL, like Nasdaq, exhibited the triple three pattern, showing a rebound from around $14 after a sufficient correction range accumulated from the expanding diagonal in the 1st wave and the overall bearish divergence.
Therefore, the completion of the complex correction from the expanding diagonal pattern marks the end of the second wave retracement of the first upward wave. Then, what is left behind is the form of waves 3 4 5. I mentioned that the size of this upward wave won't conclude within 3 or 6 months but is expected to continue for over 2 years.
Therefore, in the YouTube video, I mentioned that SOXL's correction wave ended around $14 from the 1st wave expanding diagonal position. Afterward, SOXL is expected to rise straight to $50. The increase from 14 dollars to 50 dollars is right here. So, if you look at the current trend, you can see that the overall movement is within the pattern range.
I clearly stated that after the expanding diagonal and the completion of the complex correction, the correction wave for both NASDAQ, TQQQ, and SOXL ended precisely on October 3rd. From 14 dollars, between October 30 and March, in less than four months, SOXL showed a 300% increase. Therefore, as I often mention in my recent videos, this is not the time to talk about a 3%, 5%, or 10% profit for these tech stock ETFs, especially the 3x leveraged products we are currently dealing with.
I have been saying that this is the time to talk about profits of 30%, 50%, or even over 100%. And as I mentioned, the trend is continuing in each respective phase. So, the current uptrend confirms that we have completed waves 1 and 2. Then, all that remains is wave 3. So, does this position become wave 3?
In order for me to discuss waves 3 and 4 here, it should not overlap with the first 1 4 waves. The ratio of the second wave 2 and wave 4 must match. Since both of these are not met, I have mentioned here that an adjustment may occur, but I will leave open the possibility of a mid-wave. So, the counting you are seeing now is discussing a mid- to long-term upward wave in the form of 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, and 3-5.
So, I can say that we are in a phase where we can comfortably expect an upward trend over the next two years or more However, instead of blindly believing in the outlook for one or two years ahead or focusing solely on the price, it's important to consider the segment analysis and hourly perspective that I have shown recently.
Each adjustment point, rebound position, and the timing for buying and selling have been almost perfectly accurate. It's highly reasonable to anticipate seeing over $100 from a medium to long-term perspective. However, it's also prudent to sell at positions where sufficient correction is expected and to buy again at segments where rebounds are anticipated.
By doing so, you can challenge yourself to navigate through all the adjustment phases and seize profitable opportunities. The current uptrend suggests that we will likely see a rise to at least $80, with further progression to $100 expected by the second half of the year. And even if this rise continues, at least after the 4th wave adjustment, an additional 5th wave rise is open until 2025.
Therefore, to understand the medium to long-term investment or short-term profit strategy for SOXL this time, you need to grasp the format of the elongated waves, which repeat as 1 2 1 2 3 4 5, not the format of 1 2 3 4 5, By doing so, you can profit from the strong upward waves in this phase without missing profit zones.
Therefore, both medium to long-term and short-term selling targets remain the same. I'll continue to provide guidance on the incremental adjustment waves and rebound points through membership videos. Indeed, continuous guidance on this market situation makes trading much easier for those who understand the flow.
So, if you understand waves, the current section will not be difficult at all, and only on the premise of this reliability will our proportions be able to be determined more boldly. If SOXL continues to rise in the current segment, the selling targets remain almost fixed. Since the ratio of the waves is shown, the price of the next three waves is also fixed.
Even if a correction occurs from the current position, the magnitude of the correction wave is predetermined. Our followers will understand this clearly and easily now. Therefore, the rise of technology stock ETFs will continue in the form of a rally through June, July, and August. On a relatively positive note, It's not an exaggeration to say that NVIDIA has been leading this rally in tech stocks almost single-handedly.
However, if currently undervalued small-cap stocks or overall stocks facing excessive downturns also demonstrate a gradual upward trend, the rise of these tech stock ETFs will accelerate even more. Therefore, I am anticipating a continuous upward trend without corrections for June. I will wrap-up today's video. Thank you.
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