저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
새로운 패러다임 전환이 진행 중이며 중앙은행의 경기부양 여력이 소진되고 있다. 과도한 부채, 자산 불평등, 정치적 양극화, 미중 갈등으로 인한 보호무역이 맞물려 1930년대와 유사한 디플레이션성 침체(depression) 위험이 1~2년 내 심화될 수 있다. 분산투자가 필요하며 금은 핵심 분산 자산이다. 고레버리지와 자사주 매입으로 시장이 취약하다는 점을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Over the years, new paradigms constantly emerge. Changes happen and often we become accustomed to a certain type of environment. However, over time, transformations occur that lead us to live in entirely different contexts. A good example is the 1920s, which were radically different from the 1930s. The transition between these periods had a major impact on people.
There are times when certain conditions persist for a long time. as happened with the loosening of monetary policies and the implementation of economic stimulus measures. However, paradigms such as excessive debt cannot last indefinitely. Even so, in the final stages of economic cycles, it is common for people to project the past into the future only to be surprised by change.
These paradigm shifts are constant and looking at history through a long-term lens is extremely valuable. In my view, the Fed Reserve made a mistake by treating the current moment as part of a traditional economic cycle. The idea that economic growth and falling unemployment would generate inflation no longer holds true in the world we live in today.
An environment marked by overcapacity, digitalization, and deep structural changes. The main point is that we are approaching the limits of central banks ability to stimulate the economy. The great risk is that if a slowdown occurs and we are at the end of the cycle, we could enter a recession with central banks having little room to react.
All of this is happening in a context of enormous social inequality with growing divisions between rich and poor and between the political right and left. If tensions are already high during times of prosperity, imagine how they will escalate during a recession when government intervention is limited.
The recent change in Fed policy at the end of last year was necessary in light of the weakening global economy. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor these transformations and adapt to them quickly. Regarding investments, I believe that every portfolio should have proper diversification. Gold, for example, is an important diversification asset.
I am not suggesting that all investments should be concentrated in gold, but at a time like this, building a balanced portfolio is essential. The real threat is not the direct loss of wealth, but its displacement. Today the global scenario is characterized by high leverage. In other words, a lot of money has been borrowed to buy assets and stocks.
Companies have taken on debt to repurchase their own shares, leaving markets highly exposed to risk. That is why I believe a diversified portfolio, including gold among its components, is crucial to navigating this unstable environment. We are at a point where stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly difficult and where there is a growing tendency for currency devaluation.
It is worth remembering that a debt security is nothing more than a promise of future payment in currency. When you hold bonds or other debt instruments, you are essentially betting on the stability of the currency over time. However, with the volume of debt and unfunded obligations such as pensions and health care costs continually growing, the world faces an immense amount of financial commitments that may be difficult to honor.
The situation tends to worsen in my opinion. I believe we will face a scenario of excess production capacity, debt restructurings, and political challenges interfering with this environment. This should generate a very evident risk. Recessions after all are inevitable. The only question is when they will occur.
We are already seeing signs of this in several regions in Asia, Europe, and also in the United States. If we step back a bit and look at the major factors with more perspective, we can structure this analysis better and define a time horizon. At the moment, we are quite advanced in both short and long-term debt cycles.
The ability of central banks to stimulate the economy, measured by their capacity to significantly lower interest rates and carry out monetary easing programs, is running out. We are already experiencing difficulties in that regard. Although it is not yet an immediate crisis, it is an issue that should intensify over the next 1 or 2 years.
This movement is already visible in Europe, Japan, and to some extent in the United States itself. Additionally, we are experiencing a rise in wealth inequality which fuels political tensions very similar to what was observed in the 1930s. This scenario generates greater polarization and extremism on both sides of the political spectrum which will also have a significant economic impact.
Changes in public policy such as corporate tax cuts directly influence markets increasing after tax profits and consequently raising asset values. Therefore, growing political polarization is a crucial factor as is the limitation of economic stimulus. Another important element is the rise of China as an ascending power challenging the hegemony of the United States.
This clash creates a protectionist environment very similar to that of the 1930s and has profound implications generating conflicts and reducing global economic efficiency. For instance, we built an economy based on interdependence and the efficiency of global supply chains. But now with rising conflicts, there is a trend towards seeking national security and self-sufficiency.
The United States, for example, signals that it does not want to depend on foreign technologies, and China in turn is also seeking technological autonomy. This separation significantly changes the economic dynamic. These forces are comparable to those of the late 1930s. They are evolutionary trends that will manifest over the next few years, 1 2 3 years, and will lead to the creation of a new global paradigm.
We will be in a world quite different from the one that emerged after 2008, which was characterized by massive money printing by central banks to stimulate the economy. That model is running its course, and that is why I believe we are heading toward a profound transformation. When we talk about a depression, we are referring to something similar to what happened in the 1930s.
Between 1929 and 1932, there was a sharp decline in economic activity with unemployment rates in the double digits and a GDP contraction of around 10%. Recovery began in 1933 with intense money issuance, which then boosted the economy. However, the full recovery of the losses both in the markets and in the real economy took a long time.
This dynamic has occurred several times throughout history. And what we are witnessing now is simply a new version of that cycle. And if you like this video and want me to bring the new version of this cycle, like and comment below so I can bring it in the next video and subscribe so you don't miss the next video.
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