저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 대마(마리화나) 관련주는 단기적으로 과열 상태라 추격 매수를 권하지 않으며, 다음 조정 때 진입 기회를 노리라는 입장. 시장 상황: 1월 28일 시장은 약세였으나 대마 관련주만 강세. 대마 ETF(MJ)는 2019년 들어 35% 이상 상승, 캔오피(Canopy Growth)는 약 89% 상승해 작년 4분기 급락분을 대부분 회복. 사회자 입장: 급등 후 추격 매수는 싫다며 MJ 등 추천을 주저하지만, 장기 성장성은 긍정적. 대마 시장 총 규모를 약 5,000억 달러로 추정하며 강세론자라고 밝힘. 예측 1 - 합법화 확산: 캐나다 합법화(10월), 미시간주 합법화 가결, 뉴욕 주지사 쿠오모의 기호용 합법화 지지 등으로 합법화 확산이 계속될 것. 연방 차원에서도 법무장관 지명자 바가 주법을 준수하는 사용자를 단속하지 않겠다고 밝혔고, 의회가 대마 규제 등급 조정 법을 통과시킬 가능성이 높다고 봄. 예측 2 - CBD(칸나비디올) 부상: 2018 농업법으로 산업용 대마 재배가 합법화되어 CBD 시장이 크게 성장할 것. 캐나다 캐노피 그로스가 미국 CBD 시장 진출을 발표. 다만 '맥주만큼 클 것'이라는 견해에는 동의하지 않음. 예측 3 - 대형 운영사 독점: 캐노피 그로스, 크로노스, 틸레이, 오로라 캐나비스 등 4대 업체로 재편될 것. 캐노피와 크로노스는 대형 소비재 기업 투자로 자본 우위. 캐노피는 콘스텔레이션으로부터 40억 달러를 조달. 업체들이 인수합병을 통해 소형 업체를 흡수할 것이며 크로노스는 11월부터 인수 행보를 시작. 예측 4 - 브랜딩 경쟁: 2019년은 브랜딩의 해로, 주요 대마 브랜드가 가정에서 익숙한 이름이 될 것. 기존 소비재와 달리 브랜드 충성도가 없어 대대적 마케팅, 유명인 광고가 예상됨. 예측 5 - 제약사 수혜: 깅코 바이오 계열 대마 관련 바이오 기업인 GW 파마슈티컬(GW Pharmaceutical)과 코르부스(Corbus)가 수혜. 대마 기업은 제품별 용량(도징) 편차 문제가 있으나 제약사는 일관된 용량의 합성 칸나비노이드를 제공할 수 있어 투자자 관심이 높아질 것. 투자 조건/리스크: 현 수준에서는 추천하지 않으며, 조정 시 캐노피와 크로노스를 쇼핑 리스트에 올리고 더 나은 진입점을 기다리라고 조언. 크로노스는 당일 큰 폭 상승. 출연자 전망: 대마 산업을 장기 대성장 사업으로 보는 강세론자.
다듬은 글
oh yeah download the dunan app today on a hideous day for the Water Market although I admit that it was worse at one point I always searched for the groups that managed to defy the gravitational pole the average to get a sense of what's working today it was the Cannabis cohort which blazed higher on no real news in fact these pot stocks have been getting high pretty consistently since the beginning of the year the alternative Harvest ETF which app trades under the symbol MJ has pull volted up more than 35% for 2019 meanwhile krammer Faith canopy growth which I any had fogged endlessly here has shot up nearly 89% over the same period revers nearly all all of its losses from the monster fourth quarter sellup this follow the group was laid to waste last year and now is making a major comeback frankly I hate the chase stocks that have run so I can't in good conscious recommend the marijuana stocks after this move today these things tend to seesaw back and forth so I figure you get a better buying opportunity but I want to give you the lay of the land I still think that legalized weed is one of the great growth stories of our era I think the total dressable Market is 500 billion I'm really a bull which is why why we've had so many of these companies on the show hopefully to explain where they fall within the Cannabis ecosystem now so for those of you who want to speculate on the bull market for Bud hopefully at lower levels than where we are right now I've got five predictions for the future of the marijuana industry and those are really involved you might want to write these down because they're spot on prediction number one this one's kind of obvious I know the legalization wave that sweeping North America will continue Canada Ed cannabis prohibition October here in the US state after state has legalized decriminalized or at least allow for medical marijuana nearly every time this gets put up for vote legalization wins Michigan just became I mean when you think of this get this became the 10th state to end prohibition when they voted November although that doesn't go into effect fully until next year but Andrew CUO the governor of New York very much an establishing kind of guy just came out in favor of legalizing recreational weed late last year and given that his party controls both houses of the state legislature this could happen on a lot sooner than you might expect remember these guys are all saying hey let's get the money and let's get the tax and it's going to help their budget of course every state could legalize this and marijuana would still be against the law until we get some action from the federal government however William bar president Trump's Newton nominee for attorney general has indicated that he doesn't plan to go after marijuana users that are complying with state law that was previous regime not you were always concerned plus I think Congress will be more willing to pass a law descheduling marijuana do you know that right now marijuana is classified like cocaine or heroin that kind of crazy as our politicians realize this is actually a very popular very mainstream position speaking of Congress brings to me uh my uh to mind my second prediction the rise of canabidol and that canabidol is CBD all right this is really important about a month ago president Trump signed the 2018 farm bill and the law why does that matter why should we care because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell snuck a little provision into that farm bill and that provision legalizes the cultivation of industrial hemp meaning cannabis which actually has very low levels of THC the active ingredient that gets people high so hemp is no longer a controlled substance that's going to give the CBD Market a major boost now you may have seen these CBD products already they're in a lot of stores you can I went to a um one of these rest stops in on the highway and they had all these different cheese that were CBD they tasted terrible now we know marijuana's Med medicinal properties and in many cases they aren't associated with THC the part of the plant that gets you high that's where CBD comes in you get the medical benefits without getting stoned I think the possibilities here are enormous you can put in food you can put in beverages you can put it in skin care immediately after the farm bill passed canaby growth the best de breed player in the can can Canadian cannabis space announced it would be entering the United States to play the CBD market so expect to a lot more about CBD as 2019 goes on because I believe this could be a massive opportunity some people think it's going to be big as beer I don't think so prediction number three last year felt like the wild west for the pot stocks you've gotten all sorts of players and it could be hard to tell which ones are legitimate but in 2019 I'm betting we see the emergence of a handful of major operators to some extent this has happened already with canopy growth Kronos till Ray and Aurora cannabis separating themselves from the rest of the pack those are the big four there's an even smaller subset of pots plays that have already built up a great deal of capital just canopy and Kronos thanks to investments from huge consumer package Goods companies really stand out I think that gives them a huge advantage over the competition remember uh canopy got four billion from constellation now how will these leaders establish themselves in part they'll do it by scooping up smaller players kenp be already started going on a deal binge in November and I think that's going to continue through this year too fourth I predict 2019 will be all about branding for the pot industry or as Brooks put it in Space Balls merchandising merchandising merchandising by the end of the year I think the major marijuana Brands will be household names I expect a massive marketing push from these cannabis companies is they go from building out their production and distribution infrastructure to fighting each other for market share honestly I find this really fascinating how often do you see an industry start from scratch with no brand loyalty whatsoever cannabis is about as far as it gets from the traditional consumer packaged good space where you might wear Old Spice deodorant because your granddad wor it me that kind of that kind of thing just simply doesn't really exist that for marijuana hardly so if we makers allow it expect a lot of slick marketing campaigns celebrity endorsements and anything else that these companies can think of to grab their attention and build a name for themselves finally as the marijuana stocks get higher and higher I think Wall Street will start giving more credit to a pair of marijuana adjacent biotechs um called GW Pharmaceutical which you know I've liked for a very long time and corbus which we've also featured we featured both of them money these are not pot companies they are drug companies focused on developing artificial cannabinoids that mimic what cannabis does to your body corbus is a tiny speculative company that's trying to come up with treatments for inflammatory and fibrotic diseases including cystic fibrosis GW Farmers focus on neurology and they already have an epilepsy drug on the market why do I see these stocks benefiting because as cannabis companies try to push clinical trials for medicinal marijuana and by the way that's something that canopy doing I think they're going to run into one big problem they're going to run into a problem of dosing at the end of the day we're talking about a plan here so there's always going to be a lot of variability between one batch and another drug companies like corbus and GW they don't have that problem they can mimic the qualities of cannabis while also giving you a consistent dose so as as we get more and more data showing the efficacy of medicinal marijuana I think more investors will Embrace actual medicines that do the same thing as marijuana but they do it more reliable so you can get a prescription bottom line the Cannabis cohort is red hot right now too hot for me frankly to recommend at least at these levels and I have been behind canopy the whole way but the next time the group pulls back I want you to think about where this industry is headed this is a huge growth business so I want you to put canopy and Kronos on your shopping list the latter had a big move today and wait patiently for the next sell off CU I need you to have a better entry point stick with Cramer Hawaii is the first state in the US to have 100% renewable energy goal if we don't make this move we're going to have changes in our environment and have a negative impact to Hawaii's economy
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