저자: JeffreyGundlach&HughHendry · 외국인
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결론: 두 출연자 모두 미국 장기채 40년 강세장이 곧 끝날 수 있다는 입장이나, 시점과 경로에 대해서는 '다음 경기침체 시 인플레이션→디플레이션 전환' 등 조건부 시나리오를 제시함. 장기채 강세장 종료 논쟁 James Grant의 '미 채권시장 40년 강세장 종료' 주장을 소개하며, 과거 2004년 유사 주장과 2008년 10년물 4.2% 당시 'margin of safety 없음' 발언을 언급함. 시간 프레임에 대한 조언 채권 시장 전환은 예상보다 훨씬 오래 걸린다는 점을 강조함. 인플레이션과 디플레이션 시나리오 연준의 인플레이션 목표 초과 달성(오버슈트) 가능성을 언급하고, 다음 경기침체 후 일시적 디플레이션 가능성을 제기함. 다음 경기침체 시 채권 금리 상승 가능성 다음 경기침체 시 대규모 통화 발행으로 금리가 오를 수 있으며, 채권 가격 하락이 강세장 종료의 분기점이 될 수 있다고 봄. 재정 우위(fiscal dominance) 우려 막대한 국가부채로 인해 연준이 고금리를 유지하기 어렵고 결국 금리 인하 압박을 받을 것이라 언급함. 경기 침체 및 금리 전망 소비 위축과 경기 둔화가 예상되며, 주식시장 40% 하락 시 국채 매수 기회가 올 수 있다고 봄. 10년물 금리 110~140, 최대 180 수준까지 하락(채권가격 상승)을 시나리오로 제시함. 출연자 전망과 행동 출연자는 해당 구간에서 장기채를 매수·롤오버하고 채권 옵션 매수를 계획한다고 언급함. 위안화 및 중국 디플레이션 시나리오 위안화 9 수준 평가절하 시 세계적 상품 디스인플레이션과 통화제도 붕괴 가능성을 경고함. 2007년 회고 당시 인플레이션 가능성을 보고 30년물을 매수하라는 조언을 고객에게 했다고 언급함.
다듬은 글
so I was randomly thinking about who was I randomly thinking about it um James James Grant I've got a story about him and he said his work that he sees us now the bond market rather the US Bond Market has just entered into a secular be Market that can last up to four decades I got to tell you when he said it I kind of brushed it off since then it feels like maybe he's right it well it could be and it might but it might transpire in a way that is contrary to what people might expect I like the end of the bond market the end of the not the end of the bond market I mean maybe um got to get those taxes paid got to get those deficits down um nothing wrong with deficits But Rising deficits when the econom is hot to drop not so good but um the bond boo Market this 40e plus phenomenon coming to an end prophesized by uh Mr James Grant um but we it's how we get there don't tell me the destination tell me how we kind of get there and as I like I love actually that Jeff is picking up on this I like Jim Grant I respect him a lot I'm a paid up subscriber to his service I read his essay that just that came out in the middle of July that spoke to that be market and he's so self-deprecating that's one thing I like about uh Jim Grant he's so brilliant he is so self-deprecating about it but he know he wasn't so self-deprecating with me um I I had lots of lovely Charming um encounters with James I had the great honor of presenting at his interest rate Observer conference both in New York and the the inaugural one in in London but I do recall writing in my my eclectica monthly um it was when I was rejecting all this name calling and moral izing um all of the the the noise in my mind that was preventing me from managing other people's money and and I was kind of did I lash out but I mentioned James um Albert Edwards um and probably a few others but including myself um the Bears if you will and I was overcoming my bearish disposition I was saying most likely that the movement to mockus was high um Bo did I get a pretty unpleasant email from Mr James Grant but anyway James I love you I oh I think I'd never forgiven him for um I think in the summer of 2008 and the guy who knows more thought that was interesting the guy who knows more see have my mind I'm doing it again I'm kind of what are you doing I'm just being annoying I am um two steps ahead of every sentence it's a clotted mind um the summer of 2008 um and so the guy who has this encyclopedic knowledge and understanding of the bond market to the ninth Nth Degree and there you are in the summer of 2008 I want to say the 10y year Bor year was 4.2% and James and interest rate Observer letter the guy who knows everything about bonds he says kind of quoting the language of um Buffett and what Benjamin gr at 4.2% the yield on the 10e does not offer a margin of safety to protect the conservative investor Preposterous statement perhaps I never read but um James forgive me but he acknowledging that essay in a self-deprecating manner that he wrote essentially the same essay about here comes a 40-year bare Market in 2004 so uh it can take a long time that's one of my number one pieces of advice to people about Investments is it takes a lot longer than people think now what I'm saying it takes a lot longer note to all of you people on Twitter e they keep saying Are We There Yet TT was a call option on the Jan 25 2025 what's the time what's the time Mr Wolf which where's my calendar we're presently in the year 2023 things take very long time to unfold a boom Market of such preposterously long magnitude such as the treasury 40 years plus um I don't think it's going to end without buying buying Wars get an body Invasion from out of space and 10 year yields hit the floor you know we're down at 46 basis points um and maybe I'm greedy maybe maybe that was it I just don't know so I I'm looking for the most Preposterous drama and the most Preposterous conversion of deep-seated beliefs now what I'm saying about there could be a a lengthy painful bare Market in b it's not really the next move in the chess chess game the next move in the chess game you see Jeff's Jeff just gets it I'm got to use a thousand um exalted exalted I've got I've got to strangle and wrestle my mind is not working very well tonight let's go I think it might happen because of the response to the next recession which could be very inflationary we we've seen we seen the Playbook right when we had the global financial crisis there was tons of money Printing and quantitative easing and we kept at it and then we had the pandemic and it's tons of money Printing and quantitative easing and the fiscal response keeps getting bigger so I think what might happen is Don luskin may be right and that the FED in their resolution to get inflation down towards or to two% will probably overshoot just like it overshot on the upside they wanted to get inflation higher than two my suspicion was they wanted to get it to four four back in 2021 20 early 22 not only did it go to four of course it went to nine and the PPI went to double digits and Import and Export prices went to over 15% year-over-year basis so if we've already fallen from nine back down to three but now we're going back up a little bit again on the CPI right and that I think is going to keep the FED uh constantly Resolute about things but once the economy rolls over which I think is going to happen with this uh Confluence of tax taxes have to be paid uh rent has to be paid student loans have to be paid credit card bills are getting very expensive and getting very large you know I I I think that what we'll end up doing is having the inflation rate go down ultimately when the recession comes to 2% but probably then head in temporarily into deflation and so the sky mind is a lot of uh fixed income money and he a lot of AUM assets under Dem management um and he believes that prices could actually the rate of change in prices could actually turn negative and that will end up causing a reactionary response that will be highly inflationary I think in the next recession the thing that will be so confounding to people is that bond yields once we get deeper into the recession Bond yelds will actually start to go up because of excessive um money Printing and monetary response hallelu in the next and let's not get this wrong profound recession um during the recession bond prices will turn will take flight and prices will start falling and that will be the demarcation line uh recording the end of perhaps the greatest buo Market in any asset class this was the buo market in the risk-free rate um the boom Market will come to an end during the next great economic downturn which is likely to be revealed likely started now likely to be revealed in all it shock and and awe next year but then I think the economy is going to hit a wall in the next six or six or eight months or so and there's going to be a a real shutdown in consumer activity due to all of these interest payments that have to be made and of course one thing that I always want to talk about is the government has a very honorous and increasing debt burden of course too and I think the FED in the back of their mind realizes that when the next recession comes the amount of borrowing is going to be so enormous that uh it's going to be a really bad idea to have interest rates Jeff's just going is's hitting this really good point about fiscal dominance that with the Quantum of debt outstanding the FED is either under its own poers vestages coming to recognize that you can't put 5% five and a half% six six seven you cannot put these interest rates uh as a charge onto the US Treasury blow it up and so the FED actually kind of needs the cover doesn't need it but it needs to cut rates higher than 5 and a half% with five and a half% interest rates and the FED res is in no hurry to cut interest rates and therefore this economy is going to go down it's going to go down heavy and it's really heavy and when the stock market's down 40% you'll be squealing squealing to buy those treasury bonds and you the TT down at 95 i' traded almost 185 um it's going to go 110 at 110 the chart's going to be giv your chart point to buy we're going to buy a lot it's going to go to 120 probably going to go to 140 probably will exceed 140 um we still probably go somewhere 140 in that range 140 to 180 guess what I'll be doing I will be selling it I will be buying longterm again long term long term two years trying to roll into three years into four years I'll be buying pure options on the price and of those bonds because we have to is 2008 again or 2007 2008 Redux um you have to create the most profoundly awful deflation and if the deflation I'm talking about is China and the currency the C the C give me a c the N the H the C and H trading at nine that's what it traded it's what they devalued to uh in the wake of the naft agreement in 1994 um and nine the amount of commercial price disinflation that brings on the rest of the world will be intense and and you will have further radicalization of the US government and we will be very much at that point accelerating into the demise of the monetary system that we recognize today and the demise will be at the behest of the US who will have to say this has got end and this is killing us and that will not it will not be asset price friendly to any asset class U it will not be it will be particularly severe severely unpleasant for the fixed income Mar any Jeff Jeff stop me from talking in 2007 I wrote to my clients if you think the future is inflationary you got to buy the 30-year Bond uh again um the deflation that we that was a reality in the US hosing Market in 2007 um was the thing that was going to bring interest rates to the floor it was the thing it was going to be the Advent of quantitative easing we got that right and it looks like Jeff's argu we're going to go into that world again so remember if you think the world is inflationary by bonds that's what that's what Jeff oh
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