원문 보기
foreign it has been a tough year overall for investors who've had to deal with Falls a great deal of volatility and uncertainty overall but if you have stayed put through all of it you haven't done too badly as compared to investors around the world indeed India has been the best performing large Market this year but what next is the question hello and welcome to the somewhat special I'm Prashant with me my colleagues Soni hi hi and what a Diwali it's turning out to be right I mean we're celebrating Diwali properly in its entirety after what almost two three years maybe two years for sure so it's all guns blazing and we have two veteran investors I think between them they have about 70 years of experience in the markets let's welcome them on board Manisha khani director of enam Holdings and ramji Agarwal chairman and co-founder of motilal oswal financial services gentlemen Happy Diwali to you your families um ramdeji how are you feeling this time very good I'm always I'm always fully invested no issue in the sense that and Retail investors have kept the market alive for last 12 months so we are and we are kind of a very large in retail so so sentiment has been very upbeat we just had retail conference it was stunning the sentiment the participation the size so I think we are I mean I'm doing fine and let me wish all the viewers a very Happy Diwali and a prosperous new samathia uh you know many of you are having a discussion just with namitha while back and he also agreed to the fact that if last Diwali someone would have told us that by the time next Diwali comes through we'll be down just about five percent given a raging pandemic you know decade High inflation and slowing growth people would have taken it with both hands do you feel the same I think so so first of all let me also wish everyone a Happy Diwali and just to take on from what he said if you sit back and not just about the money and the outperformance of India just think if you were a girl in Afghanistan or in Iran or if you were a person in Pakistan going through floods or you were someone trying to look for Petrol in Sri Lanka or in Germany or in so you have a lot to be grateful about beyond the fact that we've reopened and come back so it's not just about money but let's just enter this year with a sense of gratitude and then coming to your point obviously if you had said you know oil will be 130 fii sales will be 30 billion there will be a war in the world where I said sell the market and run away and here we are sitting with Market probably what two percent up or down over the last 12 months so sure a lot to be grateful about this is a new one though right I mean this kind of our performance have you ever both of you ever ever seen our performance like this in your lifetimesh he well he's when you said 70 years it's 50 there in 20 years 70 years between all of us right that would work go ahead uh no so uh my thought is that see once we broke the Berlin Wall in the you know 1990 we've had 30 years of globalization and the US has ruled and interest rates have only gone down and multiples have only gone up that regime is clearly over and the world's breaking up Supply chains have broken up the world's divided into camps you have you know Russia China maybe Saudi on one side and U.S so all of this is getting reset and therefore this theory that now you can just bet on a secular Trend and the FED can come and save you I think that story is over and it goes back in fact to the era we come from where it was good old stock picking and every time you wanted to make a macro case for India it was bearish and every time you wanted to make a micro case because you make money bottom up that's really been the story even last year if you look at what happened you could have made money in Sun Pharma and cipla and lost it in DBS and orobindo you could have made money and lost it in tata motor so it's the most hated sector was public sector and public sector Banks public sector BL HL all I've done you know remarkably well so it's become that sort of market so you're saying it because it is so de-globalized and things are breaking up I mean so that's the reason why India stands out particularly that's that's one of the reasons yeah so there's there's lots to do over here and it is always been a stock Pickers market so this trend line where you just say you can buy a country or you can buy a sector and this move towards ETFs and you know passive funds I think it's going to get severely tested now because it was easy in a unidirectional world and a unidirectional market and that's going to change and as someone running an asset management business it's great news for them because all these guys including navneet that's the time when you separate men and boys you don't need to do anything in running a passive fund but that time is your number story last year was to sell I.T and buy financials right and that worked out beautifully what do you think the big story will be from this summer to next I think finance will continue see what happens is that uh it's like a it's a cycle in the sense that in 2000 you had the one big white okay boom when the tech actually came into Forefront first time then people heard it and of course at the end whatever is good it becomes euphoric so that's what happened and we saw our Tech boom and in 2000 we collapsed and then they said let's not do take again so what they did financials so you had a global financial crisis in 2008 and then they said even Finance is bad so now let's really discover Tech now Tech came in the form of digital digital online marketing and all that in 2020 you did what did this time not in the public market in the private markets so in private Market but clearly around the digital and loss making companies and whole all kinds of you cannot imagine what stories they gave in they're down by 80 90 percent so I don't think the world is going to again take the liquidity out there in the next one wherever this problem of liquidity or inflation is done then the world will again reorient towards the next three four five years I think they are going to go to the non-tech industry now whether non-tech will be Finance or Finance plus plus that one has to see but it looks that Finance is very large I mean bigger than even Tech so that's a good place to park yourself and all the banks are clean the books have been double severely tested I mean pre-code itself it was listed and kovid was a mother of all the tests so there was nothing there is nothing left to be written off in fact everybody's writing back you will see all the results so I think we have a very good and you have to land for three four years for finally you learned badly you know so you have to first start bad lending for that so the time away yeah so that is three four year cycle my sense is that Finance is the place to be just our started and I think dirtiest finance companies also do very well Manish you feel the same and daily is becoming a bit of a crowded trade right now anyone and everyone is betting on finance I mean like him we are also very massively massively overweight in financials uh and the the risk in that is exactly what you said that if usually consensus doesn't work yeah but Finance is such a large field as he rightly said so in the past if you said Finance like last two three years you didn't make money in a HDFC bank or a quarter and you made it in icici's and access or SBI it may be because right now everyone's so worried about HDFC bank and the merger it may be the biggest stock is going to give you the best return and you know where all of us are probably highest overweight those those may not those may not so it's very possible that happens but like I said the theme no longer you cannot play a sector in a slowing world where growth will be two percent three percent let's take a it example it's not a sector which is favored by anyone really right now and the theme is stay away from exporters and so on but if you think of India is going to become from a 3 trillion to a 10 trillion dollar economy it has to be on the back of globalizers it has to be on the back of people who will take away market share from players over there now you can build a scenario and I'm not saying today is the time to you know think about it but for every Infosys or TCS which does well there may be a you know cognizant and a IBM Global which could be going Decay and the sector may not do well but individual companies could completely burst out and outperform so it is that sort of period and similarly in financials it's you know banks are there we in the past you start to talk about insurance which is actually underperformed the asset management businesses their market-facing businesses which again 10 years from now if you know navneet was speaking on his way out if you'll be a 10 trillion dollar economy there has to be a big couple of mutual funds which will be a very large size and currently they all hate it because everyone thinks the you know bips are going to keep falling and everything is going to passives and ETFs there's money to be made one of them is sitting right right here the opportunity size is
댓글 0