저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 멍거는 투기 과열과 소액 투자자의 레버리지 매매를 강하게 경계하며, 개별 자산에 대한 명확한 단기 가격 예측은 없음. [DJCO 실적·주가] 2020년 신문 사업 매출 14% 감소(코로나), 소프트웨어 사업은 12% 성장하며 첫 손익분기 달성. 유동 자산은 2020년 3분기→4분기 사이 45% 증가했으나 멍거는 이런 결과를 반복 기대하지 말라고 함. 2020년 말 주가 약 404달러는 투기 열풍과 지수 강제 매수에 의한 것이라고 언급. [증권사·소매 투자 비판] 로빈후드 등 신규 증권사가 도박성 단타 매매를 유도하는 것을 문명에 해롭다고 비판. 주문 흐름 판매(PFOF)로 '무료' 거래는 실제 비용을 전가하는 것이라 주장. 인간의 탐욕과 증권사의 공격성이 주기적 버블을 만든다고 진단. [버블·게임스톱] 닷컴 버블 당시 실리콘밸리 건물 임대 과열 사례를 들며, 신용매수로 주식을 사는 행태는 매우 위험하다고 경고. 게임스톱 숏스퀴즈는 경마식 도박과 같다고 보며, 청산소(clearinghouse) 실패 시 금융시장 전반으로 문제가 번질 수 있다고 우려. [DJCO 사업 전망] 신문 사업은 생존을 희망하나 확실하지 않음. 소프트웨어(법원 자동화) 사업은 코로나 이후 온라인 재판 확대로 성장 가능성이 있다고 봄. 정부 대상 RFP 방식 판매로 마이크로소프트보다 어렵지만 공익적 가치가 크다고 평가. [시장 전망·자산 견해] 1990년대 말과 같이 SPAC·IPO 과열은 '반드시 끝이 나쁘게 된다'고 하나 시점은 모른다고 함. 미국채는 저금리 상황에서 나쁜 투자라고 봤지만 버블은 아니라고 봄. 금리 인하와 정부 화폐 발행이 미래에 미칠 영향은 불확실하다고 언급. 비트코인은 교환 수단이 되지 않을 것이며 변동성이 크다고 비판(보유하지 않음). 전기차 BYD는 과거 5년간 성과가 없다가 최근 고평가됐지만 테슬라 대비 싸다고 평가하고 보유 유지 의사 표명. 웰스파고는 실망스러운 경영 판단으로 장기 투자자를 실망시켰다고 평가하나 은행업 자체는 잘 운영되면 좋은 사업이라고 함. [기타 철학] 가치투자는 사라지지 않으며 '지불한 것보다 더 많은 가치를 얻는 것'이 핵심. 4~5개 종목 집중이 100개 분산보다 합리적이라고 주장. 코스트코는 신뢰도에서 아마존을 앞서며 아마존에 위협이 된다고 언급. 행복의 제1원칙은 낮은 기대치. [영상 발표자 의견] 발표자는 코스트코 선호 및 아마존 회피를 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and today i'd like to share charlie munger's updates at the daily journal corporation's annual meeting that happened on february 24 2021 and as a precursor to the wisdom and insights he expands upon during the meetings q a i'd also like to share some of his little nuggets of information he had from his one page chairman letter for dj co or daily journal corporation and they include things like after many years as a cash cow the company's newspaper business was down 14 because of coven 19 but on the flip side the company's more important software business was up 12 and it finally broke even and it was up based on revenues from the prior year and furthermore he said that the company had a large trove of liquid wealth which was based on multiplying the company's newspaper business earnings and seizing opportunities of a type no longer available and he said that the company's marketable securities increased by 45 from q3 2020 to q4 2020 which is incredible and he said to not expect that kind of result in the future and he said that the stock price of the daily journal corporation hit around 404 dollars at the end of 2020 and that this price was driven largely by much speculative frenzy and much forced index fund buying so i thought that was pretty interesting for charlie to set the stage for what he would say during the meeting itself and what many people had questions about if you also enjoy learning worldly wisdom from legendary investors i'd love if you could please like and subscribe and if you watch the meeting i'd love to hear from you in the comments about what you thought about it thanks today i'll share my favorite highlights of what charlie said including how new brokers are luring the gamblers in and he thinks it's a dirty way to make money and somebody better give the man a tool because he laid down the hammer on brokerage firms like robin hood and others when asked what he thinks is the most egregious wretched excess in the financial system charlie thinks it's momentum trading by novice investors lured in by new brokerage operations like robin hood and he thinks it's very regrettable and that civilization would do better without it and he also thinks that robin hood's trades are not free when this brokerage firm pays for order flow they're probably charging more money to the users and pretending that it's free he thinks that it's a very dishonorable low-grade way to talk and that nobody should believe that robin hood's trades are free and he said that human greed and the aggression of brokerage firms are causing bubbles from time to time someone having read charlie's letter asked how can investors better cope with the current frenziness we're experiencing in the stock market and charlie munger responds by saying since we have a market economy we do get these crazy booms and he says remember the dot-com bubble where buildings in silicon valley were running at a huge price and then a few months later they were vacant and then he also says how you get shareholders frequently crowding in on buying a stock and then they buy it on credit and they do that because they see it's going up and his policy is just to write it out because he thinks it's a very dangerous way to invest and he says that shareholders should be more sensible and not just keep gambling on stocks another person asked about the recent gamestop short squeeze and the implications of it and if it involves the standard causes of human misjudgment as was outlined in charlie's almanac the book and charlie said it certainly does and he thinks that you have this happen because people are gambling with the liquid stock market the same way they would with race horses and he says that this frenzy is caused by people who are making commissions and revenues off this new bunch of gamblers and he thinks it's very dangerous because we could have clearinghouse failures and what that means is that if a lot of collateral is tied up in clearinghouses and it can't be resolved quickly enough there could be a spread of problems throughout the financial markets which would be really bad and billions of dollars could be at risk and then also he thinks that it's not great to have a culture that's encouraging gambling and he thinks that you should make your money in the world selling other people things that are good for them instead of gambling services when asked about the future of dj co charlie says that he hopes the newspaper business will survive but that's not a sure thing and he says that he hopes that they'll succeed in their software endeavor to help automate the court system because a lot of court proceedings went to the internet during the coronavirus pandemic and that trend is likely to continue and like ceo jerry saltzman said to him after breakfast you wouldn't want to invest in a parking lot next to a courthouse and he thinks that you have a country like estonia which is pretty cool by the way i've been there and it's very medieval and castle-like and in estonia the whole country's on the internet charlie said and he thinks that their software business is not similar to microsoft because they do a more difficult process of request for proposal or rfps that involve selling software to the government so it's a little bit harder than the way microsoft sells their software but charlie said they love the business anyway and it's doing a very big public service charlie was asked to share some stories and his fondest memories of his close friend rick guerin and he said that rick was always great company courageous generous and he was a kidder he liked to kid people and he was always jumping out of airplanes and parachutes and running marathons and he was part of a group consisting of monger and buffett that bought control of blue chip stamps and on another occasion charlie did daily journal with him and he said that he took the navy's iq test and got one of the highest scores and even left early and he said that doesn't happen and he said rick was always humorous always intelligent and as an aside one time when monish pabrai was hanging out with warren buffett he asked about if he was close with rick throughout the years and warren buffett assured him yes and he said one of the stories of rick was that he was in a hurry to get wealthy whereas warren and charlie were not in a hurry to get wealthy and that might have led to some of why rick sometimes had some troubles in over leveraging and trying to make huge returns on the stock market and in fact rick had what one point a better track record than warren buffett it seemed like he was a little bit of a daredevil in trying to really do great in the stock market and warren said that he was just as smart as us but he was in a hurry to get wealthy when asked if he thinks there's a close parallel to the late 1990s with the amount of specs and ipos soaring on their first day of trading and if it must end badly charlie affirms yes it must end badly but he doesn't know when and he says that he doesn't participate in specs he thinks the world would be better off without them and he thinks that it's a kind of crazy speculation where we don't even have a founder picked out yet and he thinks that investment banking profession is one where they sell poo for as long as poo can be sold he thinks that it's a kind of irritating bubble on the topic of bubbles charlie says wise people just stay out of them and he was asked if he thinks that u.s treasuries are in a bubble and he doesn't think so but he thinks they're a bad investment when interest rates are so low and he doesn't know what's going to happen with all these artificial low interest rates and he doesn't know how the economy will do in the future from all the money printing that governments are doing someone framed a question in the context of a past monger quote in that it takes character to sit with cash and do nothing and that charlie didn't get to where he is by going after mediocre opportunities and the question also asked if charlie is now willing to lower his standards to which charlie responds that well of course everybody's willing to hold stocks at higher price earnings multiples when interest rates are so low and he thinks that on the other hand he didn't get rich by buying stocks at high priced earnings multiples so he thinks that in the midst of crazy speculative booms he's not going to change and someone asked him if value investing is still relevant in the gdp decreasing world and charlie said that's easy value investing will never go out of style because the way he conceives it it's always wanting to get more value than you paid for when you buy a stock and he says some people think that value investing is going after companies that generate cash flow but are lousy businesses but he says that every value investor wants to get more value than they paid for it charlie regards it as absolute insanity that a lot of people think investing in a hundred stocks is a lot more professional than four or five he thinks it's much easier to find four or five stocks to invest in and that he's comfortable with that he thinks he knows something and has an advantage and that he is a reasonable chance of doing above average and he calls diversification diversification someone asked shouldn't dj co have the same standards as berkshire in which berkshire sold its wells fargo stock but dj koh has held on to them and charlie said that sometimes there are different considerations like with taxes and they don't have to be the same but there's no question that wells fargo disappointed long-term investors like berkshire hathaway and he says that there was management that although they weren't male violent they exhibited terrible judgment in a culture of cross-selling where it was a bad incentive system and customers got poorly treated he understands why warren buffett got disenchanted with wells fargo but he's more lenient and charlie expects less out of bankers than warren does but he said that when banking is run intelligently it can be a very good business when asked what's the biggest threat to banks charlie says that he doesn't know the future of banking or how the payment system will evolve and he says that a properly run bank is a great contributor to civilization and he said that just like he doesn't buy gold he doesn't buy bitcoin and he doesn't think that it will end up as a medium of exchange that it's too volatile and he likens people buying bitcoin to an oscar wilde quote in that it's like fox hunting and that it's the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable when asked about if he thinks electric vehicles are in a bubble he said that for five years their investment in byd autos didn't do anything until recently when they hit nosebleed prices and he thinks that is cheap compared to tesla and when asked if he has a system for selling he said that he doesn't really have one he's just learning as he goes which i found interesting and he says that as long as they like the company and the management which they do with boid he says that he tends to say too loyal and he probably won't change on that i love how charlie says that costco has one thing that amazon doesn't and that it's people really trust costco to be delivering enormous values and that costco has a better reputation for delivering value than anybody including amazon and that's why it's a danger to amazon and i tend to agree with that hands down i love costco and i try to stay away from using amazon quite honestly i'd also like to bring up some of what charlie said in his december 2020 caltech interview and he brings up the concept of how long-term business success is a lot like biology where individuals die and species die eventually just like a lot of things that used to be prosperous have faded away and moats have been destroyed and then there are new moats that come around and then he also talked about chess in this and he talked about how it's hard for ordinary people to become great investors and he said that he was able to master the right temperament and you don't want to be a one-legged person in a butt kicking contest when asked if the pace of rapid innovation is reducing circle of competence charlie said of course if someone brings a new tech you're at somewhat of a disadvantage but if it's fixable remove it if it's unfixable learn to live without it and fix what can be fixed otherwise what can you do and he said what you can't fix you learn to endure charlie says we should study the life of singapore prime minister lee kuan yew who has the best record of being a nation builder in the history of the world and he said that his mantra was very simple it's to figure out what works and do it and he says that he kept at it and if something didn't work he figured it out and just kept at it until things were figured out and he says it's so simple and charlie says he admires him so much that he keeps a bust of him in his house charlie also thinks it's a mistake when investment management firms hire an army of people to make decisions he thinks that investing decision power should be concentrated in the one right person just like in the lilu investment management my favorite thing that charlie was asked was what is his wisdom to live a happy life and charlie said it's very simple the first rule is to have low expectations because if you have unrealistic expectations you'll be unhappy all your life and so i hope that's a great takeaway because there's so much that could be said for what went on in this meeting and i hope you'll watch it so that you get as much wisdom out of it too and if you enjoyed this video or learned something please like and subscribe till next time you
Comments 0