저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 총선 불확실성으로 외국인 자금이 이탈(약 4.7만 크로어)했으나 이는 감정적 반응이므로 역발상 기회일 수 있다고 주장. 집권 여당 압승 시 시장에 긍정적, 기존 의석 수준이면 횡보, 의석 감소 시 부정적. 장기적으로는 인도의 기술 제조 허브 가능성과 투자 절차 간소화·주간 규제 통일이 핵심 과제라고 봄. 미중 관세 전쟁은 인도·멕시코의 공급망 수혜로 연결. 개별 종목은 재무 우량 기업 중심으로 보되 구체적 신규 추천은 회피.
다듬은 글
Congratulations again. You are watching "Market Masters". With us is Mark Mobius, author and billionaire investor, who introduces his new book, "The Wealth Book: A Guide to Health and Happiness for Young Investors." Mark, coming back to the Indian scenario : of course, there are many factors influencing market sentiment, and right now we are seeing some volatility, a decline in the Sensex and Nifty indices due to the elections in India.
This is what many experts point out . Do you think this volatility is really due to the elections, or are there other factors? How should investors react to this ? I think, without a doubt, elections have an impact. Because people are following the elections very closely. Everyone is emotionally involved to some extent, and they tend to react emotionally in the market.
And now there is an opportunity: if you see emotion in the market and understand that the market direction caused by emotion may be wrong, you should do the opposite. In other words, if everyone is selling, you might want to buy, and vice versa— based on the fundamentals of the companies you invest in, of course.
So, yes, I would say that right now the elections in India are probably having a big impact on the emotional state of the market. Yes, we have seen foreign institutional investors withdraw at least ₹47,000 crore since the Indian elections began in April, which is about ₹6 billion . Mark, in your opinion, what are the reasons for this?
This is probably due to the uncertainty surrounding the election . Many investors, not just foreign ones but anywhere in the world, including Indian ones , tend to hate uncertainty. They don't want to be in a state of uncertainty, and the election results, as you noted, are of course unpredictable. Some say that Modi will get a super majority and will be able to win more seats than Congress.
Others say: no, maybe not. And this creates uncertainty. So when uncertainty arises, people say, "Okay, I'm leaving." "I'll wait until I know what actually happens and then I'll invest." So uncertainty is a big driver of this process. And this is probably what is happening with foreign investors. Is n't that right?
Let me ask you about two or three scenarios. One of them is if the Prime Minister, the BJP and the NDA cross the 400-seat mark, as they assume and claim, they will win big with record numbers. If they succeed, how do you think the markets will react, and what will be the growth momentum, investment momentum and attitude towards India?
I think if they do that , the market will probably feel good , maybe even grow, unless other factors come into play. But I would say that this will be good news for the market and, more importantly, it will be good for the economy, because then the policy goals for growth and technology adoption will become very important.
One of the key aspects for India now will be its ability to attract foreign technology investment: semiconductors, software, and so on. India has an incredible opportunity to become a hub for technical innovation and technical manufacturing. And it will depend on how much the Indian government can attract these large manufacturers from China, Taiwan, the US, Japan, etc.
And this, of course, depends on the level of bureaucracy and restrictions imposed by the Indian government. And I think the Modi government will probably try to make the country more attractive and loosen these restrictions, which will attract more foreign investors . Of course. What if the government, BJP or NDA overall get the same number of votes as last time?
They will not get the promised 400 seats, but will end up with a result of around 350-353. Exactly the same as last time. The market will likely move sideways. You know, there won't be much excitement in the market . And the market, as you know, has already grown quite a bit. So a correction along the way is quite likely.
So it wouldn't be so good if the election results were better, right? What if they get fewer seats than in 2019, somewhere between 250 and 300 ? How will this affect market sentiment, growth trajectory and attitudes towards India ? Bad news. The market probably won't feel very good. There will be a lot of negative sentiment.
Unless, of course, the opposition parties, the Congress, come and say, " Look, we are going to adopt market-oriented, technology- oriented governance, we are going to introduce new technologies, we are going to digitize the economy like Modi," then, you know, we will get a different scenario, but initially it will not be good news.
Right. As you also wrote in your book, there are periods of uncertainty in history, and elections are, of course, a period of uncertainty. So how should investors view this? One is to assess the mood, trust your intuition, and be aware of what is happening. But if you can't assess the situation well, what should an investor in India do now or those looking at India?
I think the main thing is to look at individual companies that interest you. Companies that have good financial performance, high return on capital, etc.— look at them and ask: how will the Modi administration becoming stronger, weaker, or remaining the same affect this company? What will be the result?
In many cases, you will find that there will be no difference. The company will continue its operations. There will be no major changes to its operations, sales, etc. And in that case, if the price is falling, it will likely be a buying opportunity. So I believe that at this stage, in periods of uncertainty, once again, we need to act rationally.
In other words, look at individual companies and rationally assess what impact the political environment will have on that company . Of course. You were optimistic about India. You said you follow tech stocks in India very closely. You recently told us that your main stocks were TIPS, Neteb, Vari. If I were to ask you now, which companies would be your favorites in India?
Are there any other companies or sectors that you are following closely, Mark? There are no big changes, but I can't tell you that because we might be in the process of buying right now. So , there are no big changes. Good. No big changes. Are there any major sectors that you remain most optimistic about in India, regardless of the election results?
Companies that implement technology. By the way, this doesn't just mean software or hardware, but I would say that companies that are implementing new technologies to improve their profitability are the ones to focus on. Okay, my last question about India: Regardless of who is elected, what reforms do you think India needs as we try to become an alternative to China?
You also said that you prefer India over China in many ways, but capital is not flowing into India right now. What reforms do we need to ensure that these funds are attracted? First of all, the paperwork and necessary permissions for making investments in India should be simplified and made easier so that companies can bring in capital with the assurance that they will be able to take it out again in the future.
This is very important. So agreements and terms should be simplified in this regard. This is the first. Secondly, it is interesting that there is competition between different states in India . Some states have different rules than others. The extent to which these states can come together and agree on common rules for foreign investment would be very beneficial for the country as a whole, as companies could then have branches in different states .
Some of these companies are very large. They must be present in many places. They want to be present in many places. to use the capabilities of the workforce. So I think this would be another important reform. So , in other words, a more unified system between the states of India. So I would say it's two things: simplification and unification.
OK. The US has imposed additional tariffs on goods from China: almost 100%, even more than 100%, on electric vehicles imported from China; from 25 to 50% on semiconductors and solar cells. How do you think this will actually affect global markets? Because, obviously, tensions between the US and China will increase, and trade wars may escalate.
Well, again, this is where India comes to the rescue, where the country benefits from these changes because suppliers. You know, supply chain issues for American importers are becoming increasingly complex, and they need to look for new sources of supply. Where should they go? What other countries have a population of one billion , a workforce of one billion?
This is India. By the way, Mexico also benefits greatly from this . But I think India could win again, provided the Indian government simplifies the investment process . Thank you very much, Mark. We have come to the end of this special interview. Thank you for the key insights from your book, The Wealth Book: , as well as the tips that young investors should keep in mind when entering the stock market, and your perspective on the future trajectory of the Indian stock market. Thank you again for being with us.
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