저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장 과열 불안이 있어도 조정은 불가피하지만 장기 복리를 믿고 개별 종목 중심으로 투자해야 한다는 입장. 시장 조정에 대한 불안: 투자자들이 조정을 계속 예고하지만 조정은 언제든 오며, 2003~2008년 5000→21000 상승 과정에서도 우려가 있었고 2020년 40% 폭락 후 회복 때도 같은 우려가 반복됐다고 설명. 장기 투자 원칙: 10~20% 조정은 받아들이고 복리 효과(연 15~20%)를 믿어야 하며, 좋은 매니저라면 추가 1%를 더 낼 수 있다는 관점. 위험 신호: 물류비 급등(이익의 7%→25%로 상승 등)으로 기업 실적이 엇갈리고, 국내 생산업체는 수입품 대비 가격 인상으로 이익이 늘어나는 반면 일부 기업은 큰 타격을 받는다고 진단. 통화정책: 전 세계 초저금리·대규모 유동성 공급으로 인플레이션과 금리 간 상관관계가 약해졌으며 돈의 양이 사실상 무제한이라고 평가. 대응 전략: 시장 전체 방향 예측보다 이해하고 좋아하는 개별 기업에 집중해 포트폴리오를 쌓는 방식이 낫다고 주장.
다듬은 글
this is our market special and our guest today on the show is a veteran of the market for many many decades from the agarwal of mutilal oswald ram though it's good to speak to you again you know every investor that we speak to or we hear these days just seems so anxious why isn't the correction happening the market is ahead of itself the market has gone up so much it will correct and fall almost immediately how do you read this kind of anxiety that you're hearing from most investors today how do you address such questions yeah very nice to talk to you then after a long time and you know this question is coming loud and everybody is talking about that and nobody knows these corrections they will come and uh it is that so i'm kind of used to it you know these corrections and uh deep corrections also i'm quite used to it and that's part and parcel of life i building or markets uh climbing uh from any level to any level like in 2003 2008 when it climbed from 5000 to 20 000.
you know we had all these concerns on the way and uh stories came out and finally market picked out at 21 000. so i think we are in some kind of uh some kind of a client and uh how fast it goes how far it goes i mean a lot of things depend but this concerns will always remain i mean they were there very loud when uh index had fallen by forty percent last year and they were the same guys who were asking why should we invest this is a crazy market it is down by forty percent and now it is up 100 and still they are the same question so it is very these these things keep happening i think one has to have faith in the stock market one has to be ready for that 10 20 correction and uh and then the eventual the power of compounding of 1570 percent and then on top of it if you are a good manager then maybe you can make another percent so that's the kind of thinking i have i'm reconciled to uh eventual corrections and power of compounding both but you've seen so many market cycles around you as we sit today do you see any danger signs flashing which tells you that something is happening in the market which one should be very cautious about any exuberance in terms of participation any bubble like valuations in pockets ipo frenzy are there any signs which are telling you that something bad is going to happen a big accident lies ahead are there any red signals flashing or you think it's this normal caution that you hear about people uh or from people because they haven't seen a correction for a long time yeah see there are two three things happening which are very new to this market one we are coming over this was a historical this is a historical event i mean on the health care crisis a lot of things are broken down i think one of the thing which has broken down is logistics global logistics are completely broken down and the cost of logistics for many company staff global logistic costs have gone higher than the kind of underlying profits or whatever you know if somebody is making 10 profit the logistic costs have gone from seven percent to twenty five percent so it has eaten away the entire profit so these are crazy i mean things are breaking down one one after other in many aspects so we don't know uh you know what could happen to which company and of course when some companies suffer some companies disproportionately benefit us so the companies which are say inbound the companies which are competing with the uh what you call imported material they are much better off today because they don't have that expense the cheap imports coming into the country so like polymer polymers were being uh were coming in they are very smoothly at certain price now the logistic cost of the problems have like gonna buy 15 20 so the domestic guys can can increase the prices by that much so you know uh so the profits for these guys they have changed so there's so many things changing i am quite sure in this quarter result you see some companies suffering big time which are doing very well and some companies will suddenly show huge profits which they were not expected to make profits so a lot of things have gone heavier uh in this period and then on top of it you have extremely loose monetary policy all over the world coordinated so cost of money is very low despite high inflation or whatever is the inflation but the cost of money and the inflation has no correlation right now and the quantum of money is literally unlimited so these are very i mean i have at least not seen so many how do you handle so many variables at one time you know simultaneously working on uh on on the stock prices so i'm trying to focus as much as possible on each and every company which i understand which i which i like and uh and then go build up your portfolio like that rather than taking a big call on uh what market can do uh in in very short you
Comments 0