저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 대형 반등은 아직 지속되기 어렵고, 금리 인하 등 데이터가 확인될 때까지 반등은 단기 헤드페이크로 보고 현금을 보유하라는 입장. 시장 상황: 다우 -94포인트, 나스닥 -1.04% 하락. 장중 낙폭이 컸고 베어마켓 속 반등 유혹은 경계해야 한다고 주장. 과매도와 심리: 기술적으로 과매도 상태지만 시장이 본격적으로 과매도되었다고 보기 어렵고, 부정적 심리 속 매수 유혹이 크다고 지적. 2000년 닷컴 붕괴 및 2008년 금융위기와 비교: 지금은 당시와 유사하지 않다고 봄. 2000년엔 300개 이상 종목이 0으로 간 반면 현재 신규상장주는 대부분 생존 중. 2008년은 금융시스템 붕괴 수준이었던 시기로 현재와 다름. 인플레이션과 연준: 인플레이션은 잡혀야 하며 연준 수단은 금리인상뿐. 저축률 급감, 모기지 금리 7%에도 주택 구매 지속, 채용 중단 대규모 해고 등 혼재. 임금·식품·주택 가격이 하락한다는 데이터가 나와야 연준이 금리인상을 멈출 것. 현재 그런 데이터는 없음. 고용·물가 지표: 비농업 고용지표가 가장 영향력 있는 지표이며 지난 금요일 고용보고서는 매우 강했다. 수요일 생산자물가지수(PPI) 발표 예정. 지표가 시장을 뒤집기엔 부족하다고 판단. 종목 Q&A: 포시마크(Poshmark) 인수 관련 질의에 대해 인수가가 낮아 아쉽다고 언급. 3M은 배당 지속 여부와 소송(지하수, combat earplug 청력 소송) 이슈에 대해 명확한 답변 회피, 판단 유보. 리스크: 금리는 계속 높게 유지될 가능성, 반등은 단기로 끝날 수 있음, 공급망과 식품 가격(러시아·벨라루스·우크라이나 비료 의존) 리스크. 출연자 전망: 현 시점 반등은 믿기 어렵고 현금 확보 및 더 나은 데이터 확인 후 매수 권고.
다듬은 글
my mission is simple to 's always a more Market summer ey do want to make friends trying to save you some money my job is not just entertain you but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743 CBC or tweet me at Jim cramera time to accept that we have a gigantic rollback going on we're seeing an assault on pretty much every economic front right now and the Market's furiously trying to build in the negatives including today with the Dow lost 94 points has to be shed 0.75 NASDAQ tumble 1.04 but at one point it was down much more than that it's hard going because bear markets you know we know we're in one bear markets always try to tempt you to buy like this one did all day when I got up at 4am we were looking down about a half percent same as last night made sense there's nothing good happening today except the bond market is closed for indigenous people's day bonds have been Central to the Market's problems so when that stores close it's good news for the stock market sure enough the market then begins to work its way higher starting about 5 15 a.m mind you there's some overseas noise about British Bombay but here there's nothing to justify that kind of inflection I checked the big research houses the way a Bad Thing pieces to come out over the weekend again nothing positive we can't find anything worth hanging our hats on individual research on individual companies I know it's about JP Morgan stock at the end of the week kind of interesting upgrades of craft times and Merck against the slew of downgrades and price Target Cuts miasma it's all bad I mean really bad nothing to buy right down to still one more hammering of China on semiconductors this time much much more broad than expected as I had to tell members of the charitable trust who follow me and travel trust in the investing Club at the same time of course Russia UPS the ante by firing missiles all over Ukraine hitting many civilian targets so what happens with the Futures rocking we go into the session full steam ahead why not we're technically oversold we fell furiously on Friday there are no bonds getting away opening looks so tempting fortunately I'm experienced enough not to take the bait this morning I told my walk on the street colleague David Faber that if there's no reason to have a rally then the Rally's not real I reiterated that point in my 10 20 morning meeting talk with Jeff marks with the CNBC investing Club because up openings cannot be chase people sadly I know a lot of people haven't gotten that memo and they end up being hurt on days like today they buy it up because it feels good uh-uh it will feel bad you know why that is because there's widespread desire to take advantage of the negativity by doing some buying with everyone's so negative yeah a lot of people figure there's got to be an opportunity here it's sentiment driven take the other side because you want to see the glass half full even if it is not empty but actually taking water out that's what's happening right now the water is coming out sometimes that's actually the right move you know periodically you get a situation where everybody's so negative it works right it's reasonable we solve it though another side of the trade in 2000 after the.com boom a collapse the internet stocks was totally logical similarly right before the Great Recession told you to put your money out of the market if you were going to need it in the next five years hey both were great calls see there are times when it's worth it to be negative I don't think this moment is analogous to 2000 2008.
we had a lot of joke companies with no sales back in the.com Era they deserved to be slaughtered they got basically what they should have well I've had a huge number of garbage spacks and low quality IPOs recent years for the most part they're better than than their year 2000 predecessors do you know that more than 300 stocks went to zero in that earlier vintage which if you're keeping track amounts about 90 of the entire IPO crop today we're seeing a lot of declines in the newly public stocks but mercifully uh they're not going out of business as for the Great Recession just forget it it's it's not analogous at all those were powerless times so many large institutions went under that some respectable commenters were actually calling from the nationalization of the banking system if Nobel prize winning fed chairman Ben Bernanke congratulations Ben hadn't drawn a line in the sand in 2009 saying the bank failures were over I think the system could have collapsed there's just nothing like that now but like my mom always said comparisons are odious what does it matter if so many dot-coms collapsed in 2000 what does it matter if we had a Great Recession that decimate our portfolios and left the financial system with Hatters the fact is you got a different narrative but same result we have a lot of inflation right now and it has to be white it has to be wiped out unfortunately the FED only has one tool blunt instrument to make that happen that's raising interest rates doesn't immediately help either though which is the real problem here right now we've seen a dramatic decline in the savings rate in the last year it's down substantially from the paint that macaws but that's yet to impact consumer spending we have seven percent mortgage rates yet people are still buying houses we have companies that have have stopped hiring especially in tax you'll be doing a huge layoffs people can still job hop from one firm to another and collect higher salaries with ease Supply chains are still groaning under the weight of excess demand the number of retirees is staggering but reasonable when you consider the buyouts so many companies offered during the worst days of the pandemic we don't know when the FED will be done raising rates but as of last Friday's red hot employment report we know it won't be anytime soon of course we get a producing price index number on Wednesday and many of those inputs are going to be down we'll make a difference I don't think it's enough to Trump the employment number I've studied the staying power for all government Statistics over the last 20 years and nothing I repeat nothing is more respected and powerful than a non-farm payroll number it sticks with you from month to the next one so even though many managers are now worried that more aggressive hikes could cause some real Financial blow-ups the fat is known shorts right now at this very moment they think they're losing the war against inflation maybe we will look back two or three years from now and say wow they put us in such a nasty recession why didn't they wait and slow the rate hikes see what happens make them smaller why didn't they realize there was a big decline in business about the car hey yeah you could do that but from where they sit their efforts have a stench of abject failure because they haven't stemmed The Runaway costs of wfh no not work from home wages food and housing the FED can't directly cause any of those to go down but they can make it harder for companies to borrow money indirectly throwing a lot of people out of work which pushes wages down food's up because 30 to 40 percent of our fertilizer integral to Growing comes from Russia Belarus and Ukraine plus droughts are everywhere but when the economy gets bad enough people do buy cheaper Foods they do cut back as for housing we're probably at the cusp of when home sellers break price at last and start hitting bids while potential home buyers can't get or order mortgage still they haven't done so yet they just haven't once the data shows that wages food and homes are going down in price a data dependent fed will stop brazing rates something reiterated by Vice chair lail Brandon today but so far there's no such data what are they supposed to do hope they'll be right guess they'll be right I don't think that's worth taking the risk and that's why until the Market's viciously oversold which we aren't and we get softer data for weight for food and housing you got to treat all these rallies as head fakes I take the FED its word it will change if the facts change sadly the facts haven't changed so let's stop pretending if that Chief Powell announced that we're on the cusp of a significant decline in the price of wages food or homes or maybe just even one of them then we can get and anticipate more bullish we can even if we miss the first day of the run but we're not there yet so stay the course keep some cash for better times bottom line right now you can get a bounce without some more data that shows the feds actually winning the war against inflation though rates will keep going a relentlessly higher and any rally will feel great when it's occurring but will no doubt have a very short shelf life let's go to Bryan North Carolina Brian yes I'm here hey Brian what's up hey how you doing so my question yeah so my question for you is about neighbors uh acquisition of Poshmark um I unfortunately listened to a guy I know who works up in New York for Morgan Stanley um and he told me last August August 21 to buy pasta 25 a share and I unfortunately listen to him and I don't know if you know but the stock has done nothing but plunge ever since then oh that's true but here's the way I feel here's the way I feel about this Brian it's important I thought that was a watershed first time that during this horrible period we got a company that was brought public in the last couple years that actually got you out but it didn't get you on hold just saying it didn't to you so I think it's good that Poshmark got a bid but bad that it was so low and you obviously concur how about Carolyn in Minnesota Carolyn hi there Booyah Jim and thank you for taking my question today oh I'm so glad you called what's going on well I've been a long time investor in 3M Company and I've really appreciated stability and mostly it's strong growing dividend that's been in place like for 64 years right but given its recent significant share price stop you know due to Market forces sure but really made worse by mounting litigation I have two related questions first do you think they can continue paying the dividend like they've been and second of all would you call this stock a buy a sell or a hold okay account you ask great questions and thank you for the comments about the show uh my father repped for three we have scotch tape for 3M assassin I've always really respected the company but they have both groundwater litigation and what's known as combat alarms litigation which is about tinnitus and uh problems with hearing for a vet for for people who serve those are Monumental so no I can't get in front of that one uh because I think that the litigation stories both of them get one of them maybe two no I can't do it I wish they'd come on though and explain to how we can get out of this Jam if we do own 3M without some more data that shows defense actually winning the war against inflation any Rally's gonna have to be short-lived I it can rally it can oversold rally but you heard what I have to say anybody tonight for the third quarter in the rear view I'm recapping the best and worst in the Dow and sharing what you need to know then Uber and Lyft have been in Furious competition since the reception but which Rideshare stock could pull ahead on Wall Street I'll give you my take then one of my favorites Damon John is leading the third annual black entrepreneurs they put is this person being give back give back give back and I'm finding out how the pandemic disproportionately impacted black owned businesses and what the path to recovery looks like and how you can help stay with Kramer don't miss a second of Mad Money follow at Jim Cramer on Twitter I have a question tweet Kramer hashtag madtweeks send Jim an email to Mad Money at cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com
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