저자: ThomasJames · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 시타델(Citadel)이 장기 레버리지 기반 대출 구조 덕분에 마진콜을 피하고 있으며, 이 구조가 붕괴 시 대출 은행(BofA 등)까지 무너뜨릴 위험이 크다고 주장한다. [시타델 마진콜 회피 주장] 시타델은 텀 파이낸싱(term financing) 약정으로 일반 마진대출과 달리 담보 가치 하락에도 이자만 상환하면 마진콜을 받지 않는다고 주장한다. 시타델의 레버리지 비율은 약 7:1로 언급된다. [리스크 및 손실 시나리오] 시타델이 파산할 경우 약 500억 달러 포지션이 아닌 3500억 달러 펀드 전체가 청산될 수 있다고 주장한다. 이 경우 대출 은행(주로 BofA로 지목)이 약 3000억 달러 손실을 입을 수 있다고 주장한다. [뱅가드 의결권 관련] 뱅가드가 AMC 주식 5130만 주를 대차해 의결권이 사실상 없다고 주장한다. [켄 그리핀 관련 주장] 그리핀의 얼굴 노화 사진을 근거로 스트레스를 주장하며, 사기 사건 판결(13개월, 12년)을 비교 근거로 들어 중형 가능성을 언급한다. [공매도 및 크레디트스위스] APE(AMC)가 야후 최다 공매도 목록 1위인 점을 들어 공매도 수치가 잘못되었을 가능성을 제기한다. 크레디트스위스는 2022년 손실 79억 달러, 2023년 대규모 손실 전망이 언급되며 주가가 13% 하락하고 역대 최저 근처까지 떨어졌다고 언급한다. [종합 결론] 시타델과 대출 은행의 레버리지 구조가 시스템 리스크를 키운다는 것이 핵심 메시지다.
다듬은 글
today I want to talk about how Citadel have so far been illegally escaping their margin calls but how it won't be going on for much longer I also want to talk about the massive punishments that many of these hedge fund managers will soon be receiving Travis tweet is saying how does citadel avoid the Margin Call well read the section highlighted and read so it says the company seeks to mitigate this risk by utilizing term financing Arrangements basically saying that many other major Banks lend money to Citadel so Citadel can avoid those margin calls he says it means they're using external loans to continue to hold their short positions now I do want to talk about the massive risk that this creates but first let's read exactly what said in citadel's financial statements so Under The Heading liquidity and leverage risk it says CSG which is one of citadel's entities targets to maintain a pool of excess liquidity at the company for various planned and contingent needs including among others marked to Market losses on investments AK losses on their short positions changes in margin requirements as term financing facilities mature increases in initial margin requirements by the Clearing Houses and members Capital activity it says the company generally invests on a leveraged basis which we know because we know that Citadel uses about a seven to one leverage ratio and they invest on that leveraged basis both through its financing and Loan arrangements and through the degree of Leverage typically embedded in the derivative financial instruments in which it invests the use of Leverage can significantly magnify both gains and losses increasing the possibility of the company incurring a substantial loss and leverage through margin borrowings generally requires collateral to be posted with prime Brokers custodians and counterparties this is obviously the capital they have to post for their leveraged trades and if those leveraged trades go against them too badly they do end up being margin called and effectively liquidate it and obviously market value movements could result in a prime broker custodian or counterparty under their respective agreements with the company having the right to reduce the value of such collateral or to acquire the posting of additional collateral AKA a margin call potentially resulting in the issuance of a margin call and a liquidation this could also result in a company having to sell assets or close out of short positions at a time when the company would not otherwise choose to do so AKA a force liquidation and here's the important part the company seeks to mitigate this risk by utilizing term financing Arrangements AK loaning or borrowing other money from other external Banks as well as negotiating trading and financing Arrangements that include objective valuation methodologies and dispute rights for valuation differences between the company and its prime Brokers custodians and counterparties they might be saying Tom what's a term financing Arrangement and how does that help set that out avoid those margin calls well a term financing Arrangement is a special type of margin loan that doesn't behave like a normal margin loan typically when you invest on margin you borrow money from your trading platform maybe it's Weeble or Robin Hood or TD Ameritrade or whatever platform you're using but you borrow money from them and you invest using that money and then if your account Falls below their maintenance requirements you end up getting Margin Call and you're forced to sell off the position to repay their money back but a term financing arrangement provides borrowers with a lump sum of cash up front in exchange for specific borrowing terms with this type of margin loan borrowers agree to pay their lenders a fixed amount over a certain repayment schedule with either a fixed or floating interest rate so this type of financing Arrangement Works more closely to the kind of financial instruments that Michael Brewery was taking out during the film The Big Show instead of the loan being valued against citadel's open positions where they're taking Prof profits and losses Citadel may just have to pay that monthly interest payment to continue taking out their margin loan that way Citadel won't traditionally get margin called under the normal terms as long as they can continue to meet that repayment schedule now that's obviously significantly more risky for those lenders because it means they can't forcibly Margin Call Citadel if their total position value drops below the maintenance requirements because obviously as long as Citadel continues to meet their repayment obligations they technically haven't defaulted on a loan but obviously it's a lot more risky because if Citadel ends up going bankrupt they can't reclaim the full value of their loan back actually they lose every single penny so instead of just simply forcibly liquidating Citadel for their 50 billion dollar position the entire 350 billion dollar fund ends up being liquidated Citadel loses their 50 billion dollars and the lending Bank likely Bank of America because they finance most of citadel's margin loans loses everything which is that 300 billion dollars so this way Bank of America wouldn't just be recognizing a 10 billion loss like Credit Suisse had with arcados they'd be recognizing a 300 billion dollar loss is obviously significantly more risky for those lenders if citadel's entire fund ends up being margin called so this is why I think Citadel has so far been able to avoid their margin calls it's because their loans don't work like normal margin loans there's no Citadel being down 10 or 15 percent and a bank comes knocking and says Citadel sorry guys it's time to be liquidated please close out of all of your positions we lend the money for over 80 of your positions and because your account has decreased by say 10 or 15 or 20 percent it's now time to margin called so sorry guys pay up Citadel can continue to dwindling down their account past 20 30 40 50 and so on and they don't get margin called because they're under these specific special term financing Arrangements providing Citadel makes their monthly payment on time they don't get liquidated because they're not in default of the agreement but it obviously creates this massive massive risk that when Citadel comes down it doesn't just bring down Citadel it likely brings down Bank of America as well and now part of the reason why Citadel has also been able to escape is because Vanguard has been loaning out every single share that they own as hang loose tweeted he said Vanguard owns 51 million AMC shares but they've lent out every single share that they own they currently have zero voting power in the AMC company even though they're the largest shareholder and this screenshot really shows exactly what's happening obviously Vanguard holds 51.297 million shares but can only vote with 155 000 shares because Vanguard is pretty much lending out every single share of the 51.3 million shares they hold hang loose asks the question saying if you lend out your shares do you lose voting power and the answer says that shareholders of companies are able to exercise some amount of voting power when new policies are proposed however you won't have shareholder voting rights when your shares of stock in that company are online Vanguard doesn't have any voting rights whatsoever because obviously they're lending out every single AMC share but you can see from the passing of time that Ken Griffin is becoming more and more stressed biotech moose tweeted the timeline of citadel's AMC Shore these photos are unaltered and date verified because they're taken directly from Bloomberg interviews or public appearances and he said this is what massive stress looks like in the last two years Ken Griffin's face obviously between January 2019 and January 2021 which is a two-year period looks fairly unchanged but then from January 2021 on to January 2023 Ken Griffin looks like he's aged almost 10 or 20 years in that time Ken Griffin has gone from having practically zero wrinkles and being a very moderate or sporty way to an overweight wrinkled mess and I think the reason why Ken Griffin has aged so much in the last two years is because he knows exactly what's going to happen when he gets caught for his illegal crimes we've just seen a fund manager getting 13 months in prison for a 100 million dollar Ponzi scheme and even though you may say that 30 months in prison sounds like a long time his co-conspirator David Hugh was sentenced to a 12-year term in July now the reason why Martin received such a significantly smaller term was due to his health issues if he was perfectly healthy he would have also received a 12-year term as well so that basically means that Ken Griffin Citadel is likely facing at least 12 years in prison because his fraud is many multitudes the size of 100 million dollars he says the co-founder of an investment advisory firm based in New York was sentenced on Wednesday to 13 months behind bars he appeared guilty in April admitting that he conspired to defraud investors in funds managed by his firm and he did that by over are valuing distressed loans and creating bogus documents and fake loans that we use to hide losses now overvaluing distressed positions sounds exactly like what Ken Griffin Citadel Securities is doing right now as I said he's likely not telling Bank of America the lenders just how bad his position truly is and as long as he's meeting those monthly interest payments nobody raises an eyebrow but right now Citadel is down heavy and has likely lost a large portion of Bank of America's money and obviously not just Bank of America's money but also citadel's investors money as well and another reason as to why Silva received such a significantly smaller sentence is because he also flipped on his co-founder and actually provided critical help in unraveling the scheme so even though he was effectively a whistleblower he's still receiving 13 months in prison but obviously that's nothing compared to the co-conspirator receiving 12 years in jail and I'm sure something else that is making Ken Griffin very very stressed is the fact that ape is still number one of Yahoo's most shorted stocks list now this is really interesting because ape per the actual figures doesn't have a very high short interest AMC seems to be the stock that has a much higher legal short interest but even though ape has a very low legal short interest it still ranks number one on top of Yahoo's most shorted stocks even though stocks like carvana and Bed Bath and Beyond have short interest or legal short interests of well over 50 percent ape still outranks them maybe heaven forbid the legal short interest of ape is actually wrong and that many more shares of Vape are being shorted compared to the legally disclosed figure and finally Credit Suisse also posted some updated information from my video earlier Credit Suisse has just had one of the worst quarterly earnings calls possible they announced their 1.4 billion dollar quarter for loss bringing their total loss for 2022 to 7.9 billion dollars management is also expecting a a substantial full year loss for 2023 as well where the substantial means more than eight billion dollars lost in 2023 or just simply maybe six billion or five billion is still going to be a massive massive loss for another year running as a result the credit Suite stock was down 13 and at its worst was nearly setting a new all-time low upload a new video cheers
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