Tom Lee: AI trade still in very good shape despite questions about durability

요약 보기

Fed 금리 인상 확률은 낮고, 핵심 인플레는 주택 약세로 둔화 중이며 유가·관세가 주요 압력. 연준 대차대조표 축소는 사실상 완화 신호로 해석 가능. AI 교역(AI trade)은 여전히 견고하고 연말까지 활발할 것, 마진부채 감소가 최근 증시 둔화 요인. 빅테크 AI 투자 축소 우려에 대해서는 우려가 많다는 것 자체가 강세 신호이며 기업들이 채권시장 접근성이 있어 투자 축소 가능성은 낮다고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The Fed begins a two-day meeting ahead of a rate decision on Wednesday. Policymakers are expected to remain steady, but the likelihood of a hike has risen to about one in three, or 33%, compared to 16% a week ago. We are in touch with Fundstrat's Head of Research, Tom Lee. He is also the chairman of Bitmain and a CNBC contributor.

02. Tom, congratulations. Would you participate in this market forecast, so to speak? What do you think? Is there a real chance that the Fed will raise rates this week? I think the prediction markets and funds want to hedge against a binary event. That's why we have this 30%, because someone needs to insure the risks.

03. Mhm. But I would say the probability is low. I do n't expect them to raise rates. What about any point in the future? As you know, they will be monitoring how the data develops. So I don't think it depends on the state, but rather on the reaction to the data. In our opinion, the core inflation story has weakened significantly as the housing sector is very weak, and we will see that tomorrow in the Case-Shiller report.

04. And if there is no pressure on wages , then the real driver of core inflation that we are currently seeing is only tariffs and oil, which is why the Fed does not necessarily start a rate hike cycle. I don't want to use the bad word " temporary." They are potentially temporary , right? Yes. And oil is falling now because certain negotiations are underway, and, by the way , the price may rise again tomorrow.

05. We don't know what will happen, it all depends on the negotiations. But the bottom line is that if and when a lasting peace comes, oil will likely become cheaper again. The market seems to want to bring the price back down. This should influence the Fed's thinking. Yes, because then they just need to wait out this small surge that they have to deal with.

06. I think to some extent they can just reduce the balance sheet instead of changing the discount rate. Quantitative amplification? Right. Yes, I think this is the best way to dose. Maybe they'll say, "Let's try to put a little pressure on growth, but not to intentionally slow the economy." Could this somehow upset the stock market a lot?

07. You know, the stock market will eventually figure out: if the Fed is reducing its balance sheet, that means they can lower rates. So they will perceive the rate cut as a positive signal. So, I think this will actually pave the way for future rate cuts. So, if the Fed isn't the most important factor for stock markets right now, what is?

08. Well, I think that AI commerce remains the most important topic, and people, of course, have doubts about its longevity. But you know, if you think back to the period from '94 to 2000, there were many moments when the history of the Internet and even stocks like Cisco were questioned about their longevity.

09. And I think that right now we are in a moment of such doubt about durability. But I think everything is in very good shape, and the second big story is that margin debt still has to reduce this high level of growth, similar to what happened in Korea, where there was a kind of margin call. And I think that's why stocks are slowing down here.

10. But as for me, I think AI will continue to be actively working until the end of the year. Perfect transition. This morning, Steve Eisman, a well-known investor, was on Squawk Box. Here's what he said when asked the big question of the reporting season: What happens if Big Tech starts cutting capital spending on AI?

11. Nvidia, I think when they reported last quarter, had 85% revenue growth. So, if hyperscalers cut costs, it would be 85%. And you know, maybe that would be great for the long term . But I think the market would go down sharply after such news. I'm curious to know your thoughts and reactions to this. Uh...

12. And do you think that's even likely, or worth discussing now, compared to what Google did, and they were punished anyway. Yes. Well, on one level I would say that there is some sense in Steve's logic . But the fact that so many people are talking about it is a sign that we are not at the peak, because people are questioning the length of the cycle.

13. So, I think this is actually a bullish signal. Secondly, do you know if this is likely? I would doubt that there would be such cuts, as these companies still have access to the bond market, and the bond market is not denying them capital. So, as you know, CFOs raise funds when they can, not when they need to. So I think the visibility of the costs will be very high.