저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
6월 16일 FOMC 2일차 전후 연준 발언 체크포인트 정리. 2:00 성명서에서 금리 제로·채권매입(국채 800억, MBS 400억 달러/월) 유지 예상, 2:30 파월 발언에서 테이퍼 시점(soon/imminent 여부) 주목. 시장은 테이퍼 조기 시사에 민감(2013 테이퍼 텐트럼, 2018 급락 사례). 금리 궤적은 2022말~2023초 인상 전망 유지 예상. 6월 CPI 둔화(연 5%→4.1~3.5%) 기대. 내일 연준 발표는 무난할 것이라는 전망.
다듬은 글
Right. So, hey everyone, me Kevin here. So, you want to know this information that we're about to cover here before 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, June 16th. The reason for this is on June 16th, we are going to have probably a 45 to one hour conversation or we're going to be able to listen to this conversation that Drum Powell has with media and we're going to be paying really strict attention to certain things.
and I want to set your expectations for what it is that you want to look for, but I also want you to be prepared in what those things could end up entailing for the market. So, here's what we're going to be up against. Tomorrow is the second day of the FOMC meeting, Federal Open Market Committee. Day one is today.
Tomorrow is day two. When the meeting concludes at uh usually around 2 PM Eastern time, we'll get a release of what the conclusion was of the meeting and did they decide to raise rates or change any kind of bond purchases. Right now, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed, they are buying $40 trillion worth of mortgage back securities and uh I'm sorry, $40 billion of mortgage back securities and $80 billion of Treasury securities every single month.
that totals up to about $120 billion dollars in treasuries that they're buying every single month. And so what we're looking for is is that number going to change and are interest rates going to change. So that's going to be a big thing that we want to pay attention to tomorrow at that 2:30 moment. Actually at 2:00 is when the statement comes out.
Jerome starts talking at 2:30. At 2:00, our expectation is that interest rates will stay at zero and bond purchases will stay at 40 and 80. Those are the three things you're looking at in the statement. That's pretty much it in terms of what you're looking at in the statement. We can kind of parse the statement or look for little changes, but they're so good at really not sending big signals in the statement that usually we don't get any changes out of the statement.
The bigger moment is going to be when Jerome Powell speaks. So Drum Powell speak at about 2:30 Eastern time and he's usually very much on time. And what we're going to be looking for in his verbal statement and his answers to folks questions is exactly when we should begin to expect to hear about a taper actually happening.
Taper means the reduction of bond purchases. That's tapering back. Now, when the Fed first talked about this in 2013, the markets kind of threw what became known as a taper tantrum, which is kind of like a child throwing a tantrum over ah the cheap money's going away, right? Uh and and so the markets are very nervous right now about what's going to happen if the Fed starts tapering.
Like how are markets going to react? Are people going to freak out? Because they freaked out in 2013 and guess what? When we tried it again after the taper, when we tried again in 2018 to actually go from taper to continuing to raise rates, that's when the market really freaked. We had a pretty bloody winter in the stock market uh in 2018.
The real estate market got hammered by about 12% in the year of 2018, though it did mostly recover by the end of the year. Started in about May of 2018. And a lot of this was because of Fed action directly. So, when the Fed talks, people pay attention. And we know it's going to have a big uh it's it's going to have big implications from what whenever the Fed makes their changes on taper and rates.
We know the market's going to react. So here are the key things that I think we're looking for. Number one, we're going to be looking for very particular key words tomorrow when Jerome Powell answers questions. The key words we're looking for are soon and imminent. If they say anything about, hey, we're planning on tapering soon or we're planning an imminent taper, I think the market's going to have a little bit of heart palpitations and chest pain.
The reason for this is we know the taper is coming, but a lot of economists, I would say the average of economists based on a Bloomberg survey right now, are expecting the taper not to actually begin, which would mean going from 120 billion to let's say 100 billion. We're not expecting that to actually begin probably until August through September.
Somewhere in that range is when we would expect the taper to begin. If it doesn't get delayed through the end of the year, the more it gets delayed, the better. What we don't want is them to go, we just decided to taper. The reason we don't want that is because Drum Powell told us that he would give us plenty of notice before tapering.
Well, so people are going to now challenge that assumption and decide, can we trust Dr. Powell? Can we trust JPOW to actually keep his word and give us a lot of advanced notice if a taper is going to come and when that taper is going to come? He has promised that he would make it extremely clear. If we taper, we will make it extremely clear.
You will know about know about it and everyone will have ample notice. He has mentioned that. Now, he's also mentioned that you should use that 40% off coupon code down below to join my amazing courses link down below. Uh but beyond that, obviously didn't mention that. But beyond that, uh, the other word we want to look at is is soon.
Uh, and and well, the two words soon and imminent. The reason here is we kind of don't want to hear imminent. Imminent would be bad because that would probably mean next meeting, which would be way earlier than expected. Soon is not so great either, much sooner than expected because September, October, August, I wouldn't really think is soon for this purpose on tapering.
If we hear him say, "Look, we're starting to talk about tapering," which this is my expectation. We're going to start talking about tapering. We have no plans of tapering soon and no plans of an imminent taper. That's good. Okay, that's positive. That's what the market wants. The market wants to wait.
The market does not want to taper yet. Uh and so this is going to be very, very important. We're not expecting any change on rate trajectory. Probably still going to see rate trajectories for rate increase at the end of 2022, beginning of 2023. But remember, the market likes to project pricing forward.
So the market likes to generally price well stocks about 18 months to sometimes 24 months ahead. So the market's really trying to predict, okay, well what's going to happen at the end of next year? You know what's going to happen at the beginning of 2023? Are we moving that up? Are we moving it back?
How are you reacting? Now we also had uh Paul Tudtor Jones talk about how if the Fed doesn't respond to inflation, he's going to go big on all these inflation hedging stocks, right? short bonds, industrials, things producing cash flow now like REITs and that. This in in my opinion is it's a little excessive.
We broke this down in a video yesterday. I think it's a little excessive that you would go so hardcore on on uh bagging on the Fed for maybe not responding to the last two CPI data, particularly because the last two sets of data, the last two releases, they were expected. We expected high inflation from base effects.
We expected high inflation from stimulus month overmonth factors from people going out and spending. We expected to see those things in transitory portions of the CPI, which is exactly what we saw. Airline travel, uh, used cars and trucks. I mean, this is this is expected so far. So, so far, everything's along the correct trajectory.
Personally, I don't think the Fed's going to change anything here. I think tomorrow is going to be a dud in terms of what they give us. I think it's going to be we're going to remain patient. There's a lot of work to be done. the economy is nowhere near to to you know being ready to recover. We're nowhere near ready to taper but we are starting to have the conversation about tapering.
I think it once they say we're ready to taper like we're ready to have that conversation. He's going to be very blunt about that. Like we're having the conversation. We had the conversation. We talked about it for a little bit but we don't plan on doing anything yet. Those are my expectations. I think the market will take that very well tomorrow.
I think the market's going to be happy with what Drum does tomorrow. Drum has pissed us off before. Okay. In February he's pissed us off. He's called equity valuations high before. He's messed up some things in the markets before, but hey, that's that's what they do. But anyway, uh I I do expect a pretty boring uh Fed release tomorrow.
I will be covering it obviously live, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the market a little like tentative later today through the rest of the trading day today and into tomorrow uh until the Fed talks and then really we just get unleashed until the next Fed talk. It's kind of like, okay, well that's over.
That wasn't that bad. That's part of my expectation in terms of what's going to happen. Uh I do not believe we're going to have any kind of aggressive action from the Fed on inflation. And I think Paul Tutor is is going to be very disappointed. Although we can kind of expect this now next month. Okay.
And this is the bottom line I I want to get to as well. And then we're going to move on to the sticks. So the next thing that I want to hit here has to do with well wait a minute. What about the next CPI data set? Okay. So next CPI data set which is going to give us inflationary data from June will get reported in July at the beginning of July second week of July.
In the second week of July, we'll be able to look at inflation data from June. I'm expecting to see it inlect down. If we get a good downward inflection, we go down from 5% year-over-year to like 4.1 or 3.5 somewhere in that range 35 to 41. And month-over-month inflation stays around. 2 to6 somewhere around there uh in terms of an increase.
Uh that that would be very good. So hopefully that's uh that's where we end up landing, but we obviously won't know that for about another 3 weeks. So there you have an update on what I think expectations should be for inflation uh the Fed and a tapering for tomorrow. Great. Thanks for watching that portion.
댓글 0