저자: RayDalio전략소개자 · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄 결론: 영상은 레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오를 소개하며 성장률과 인플레이션 두 요인에 따라 자산을 4분할해 어떤 시장에서도 안정적 수익을 목표로 한다고 주장한다. 전략 개요: 올웨더 포트폴리오는 시장 상황과 무관하게 최소 위험으로 수익을 낸다고 설명하며, 최근 10~20년 기준 85%의 기간에 긍정적 수익을 냈고 나머지 15%에도 하락폭이 주식시장보다 작았다고 주장한다. 핵심 요인: 시장은 미래를 선반영하므로 성장률과 인플레이션이 가장 중요하며, 두 요인의 조합에 따라 주식·원자재·채권의 성과가 달라진다고 본다. 자산군별 특성: 주식은 성장 시 강세, 원자재는 성장과 인플레이션이 함께 오를 때 가장 강세, 채권은 금리와 연동되어 성장이 둔화되고 인플레이션이 오를 때 성과가 좋다고 설명한다. 배분 방식: 포트폴리오를 4개 영역에 25%씩 나눠 투자하는 방식을 권하며, 달리오가 40년간 이 방식으로 매년 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. 실전 배분 예시: 주식 약 30%(또는 인덱스·블루칩 중심), 장기채 등 채권 약 55%(영상 내 '회사채 15%'와 '정부채' 언급 포함), 원자재 15% 등으로 제시한다. 자산 수치는 자막 오인식으로 불명확하다. 리스크·조건: 과거 2022년 주식 하락 18% 사례를 들며 주식 대비 채권 상승폭이 작다는 점을 언급하고, 정치·전쟁·원자재 공급 등 변수는 여전히 존재한다고 밝힌다. 목표는 부 창출보다 자산 보호와 안정적 소득이라고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없고, 장기 전략 관점의 설명이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, today we will talk about an investment strategy of mine, Ray Dolly, which he calls the All Weather Portfolio. No matter what the market or conditions are in this portfolio, you get returns with minimal risk. In this video, we will understand what an All Weather Portfolio is and how we can implement it in our lives to generate regular income from money.
The purpose of this video is to introduce you to a new investment strategy that will help you towards your financial freedom. This strategy is also best for those who cannot spare time to research their investments and generally get confused by the market movements. First, let's understand what an All Weather Portfolio is.
If you follow my advice, this portfolio is such that it actually guarantees you a good return with minimal risk. Because friends, as the name suggests, this portfolio will give you a consistent return no matter what the stock market does. Even on the downside, it minimizes your risk completely. If you look at it over the last 10 or 20 years, If we compare, this portfolio has delivered good, positive returns 85% of the time.
The remaining 15% of the time, its downside has been less than the stock market. However, the overall returns remain positive. Friends, let's always stay positive. Now, let's move on to our charts and discuss the two most important factors in creating this portfolio. Friends, the first is growth and the second is inflation.
If you've been following the market and have been with us since the beginning, you know that these are the two economic factors that define success and failure in the market. How well you can read these two factors and formulate your investment strategy depends on these factors. Friends, the market operates by discounting the future, that is, based on an expectation.
If the market expects good growth in the future, then that market moves fast. When the market realizes that future growth will be low, then the market automatically slows down. So, you can understand how important both growth and inflation are. To understand the market cycle and market expectations, in a normal market cycle, either growth and inflation rise or growth forces inflation.
Whenever growth and inflation rise, some classes perform well and some do not. Similarly, when growth and inflation fall, some classes perform well and some do not. So, which are those classes that perform well on the rise and which perform well? Let us first understand it this way. Just as there are four seasons in a year, similarly there are drains which impact the market and economy and on that basis, different asset classes perform differently.
So, what happens is that friends, in every season, generally some assets perform well and some perform poorly. If you look at this board, we have mentioned in it which asset class performs well in which situation and the rest of such classes give poor performance. Let's take an example, first look at stocks.
Friends, stocks perform well when there is growth and when there is inflation, it falls. Similarly, if you look at the prices of commodities, commodities rise. When there is growth and inflation also rises, then commodities perform the best. And as we saw earlier, when both growth and inflation were booming, what a huge boost there was in commodities.
If we look at bonuses, friends, bonuses are directly linked to interest rates, and the interest rate is linked to inflation. When inflation rises, bonuses automatically increase, due to which, even when growth falls, you get good returns in bonuses. Friends, there are two ways of offering bonds. They are offered by private companies to the public at a good rate.
You must have heard about them, like recently, Adani Group was famous in the news for its bonus. These bonds generally perform best when growth falls and inflation rises. So, now we come back. Look at your strategy, friends, what rate experts believe, and I agree that no one can accurately predict these weathers, so what is the best way to generate a good return from your portfolio in the weather?
They believe that the fastest way is to divide your portfolio into four sectors and invest it equally in all four sections, i.e. 25% here, 25% here, 25% here and 25 % here. Technically, you have one portfolio, you understand it as four different portfolios. But friends, the story does not end here, in fact, the story starts from here because rate portfolios take it to a different level.
Only then, it remains that no matter how the market is, no matter what the weather is, no matter what the scenario is, he has generated returns every year in his 40-year career, year after year, just by following this strategy. We are regular people, we do not have to think so much about this thing.
We have two classes, one stock and what we do is, we invest 50% in this. Done playing the game. Now, history tells us, friends, stocks generally have a five-fold increase over bonds. What this means is that if the stock market falls by 18%, as we saw in 2022, the actual market decline, then the bond market will normally rise by only around 4%.
These are n't the only factors that actually impact an economy. There are many other variable factors that vary from scenario to scenario, such as political tension, war, commodity supplier shortages, import- export, Kuwait. All these factors keep coming up over time, but the constant factors are always group and inflation.
Always remember this. So, let's come back to our stock portfolio. What happened now? It lost 18% and went into a loss. What we do is we take the stocks into our portfolio, 20%, and we take the bonus, 80%, so friends, on the dice of 18% on our portfolio page. There is zero impact and stocks also mean that friends, you invest in stocks or index banks or the best to best blue chip companies i.e.
Nifty 50 companies, small caps and mid caps are not counted in this. Now comes our second investment. We will take the remaining 40% of this which will be ours and from this we will invest 15% in corporate bonds which will give us a good return from this government bond and the remaining 15% of ours, we will invest in commodities.
Now friends, what I mean by commodities is that there is a pearl in India itself which you can invest in India in your demat account, then 15% will be your variable amount in DTH. I know you are thinking that if I invest 30% in stocks then how will I get returns, how will I create wealth, but friends, the objective of this portfolio is not wealth creation, the objective of this portfolio is to protect your wealth and give you a good income on top of it, without any other transactions and stress.
No matter how much the market falls, you will definitely get some income. But if you have not found this strategy interesting till now, then trust me, one day you will find this strategy very interesting because now you have become a part of our market family, so you will definitely achieve financial freedom and after achieving it, you will not have to get any returns, so your first goal will be to protect your wealth and on top of that, get a disc-free return.
If you do not understand, then it does not matter, stay connected with us in time, understand it very well and if you want to invest in stocks and want to identify them, then for that we have made a video for you on how to explain the emotions of the investor, which is a very important factor for investing in high-end stocks. So here is the link of that video, you must watch it. Good bye
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