저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 원자재, 특히 농산물과 금속은 아직 저평가 구간이라 인플레이션 방어 수단으로 유효하다는 주장. 농산물 및 원자재 전망: 설탕은 최고점 대비 약 70% 하락, 농산물 전반이 저렴하다고 봄. 과거 통화 증발은 실물 가격 상승으로 이어졌으므로 원자재 상승 여지가 많다고 판단. 은: 최고점 대비 약 60% 하락한 상태(온스당 약 23달러 vs 최고 약 50달러)에서 되돌림 가능성 언급. 다만 하락장에서는 함께 떨어질 수 있어 무조건 매수는 경계. 구리: 전기차 확산으로 수요 증가, 사상 최고가 경신 중이나 전기차는 이제 시작 단계라고 봄. 석유·천연가스: 보유 중이며 추가 매수 고려. 셰일 붐은 거품이 꺼졌고 전 세계 확인 매장량은 감소 추세라고 주장. 석유는 최고점 대비 50% 이상 하락 상태. 우라늄: 수년간 큰 폭 하락 후 광산 폐쇄 및 공급 감소 상태이며 원자력 수요(중국·유럽)는 유지되어 보유 중이라고 언급. 원자력은 제대로 운영하면 저렴하고 효율적이라고 평가. 농지 투자: 미국 농민 평균 연령 58세, 일본 66세로 농업 인력 감소, 경쟁 감소 예상. 개인이 농지를 직접 사는 것도 방법으로 제시. 투자 원칙: 대다수 투자자가 지수를 이기지 못하므로 ETF로 시작할 것, 자신이 아는 분야에만 투자할 것을 강조. 향후 2~3년 내 어려운 시기가 올 수 있다고 경고. 해외 분산: 미국 외 국가(예: 캐나다 자원 투자)에도 기회가 있다고 언급하며 분산 투자 권고. 출연자 본인 근황: 딸들에게 돈은 쓰기보다 모으는 것이라고 가르치며, 좋아하는 일을 추구하라는 메시지 전달.
다듬은 글
I would suspect that we still have plenty of room to make money in Commodities especially agricultural Commodities as I said before I mean silver I own silver is down 60 from its all-time high look out the window how much what do we know that's down 60 from its all-time high very little um Sugar's down 70 percent from its all-time high so in my view and all of this money printing historically has led to higher prices for real Goods so in my view we have a long way to go the all-time high on Silver is 50 an ounce now it's 23.
so why can't silver go back to its all-time high that's the way markets usually work I would suspect that we still have plenty of room once upon a time so I would suspect that we still have plenty of room to make money in Commodities especially agricultural Commodities going forward who knows I I don't know but if you want to protect yourself that's one way I am protecting myself I hope I hope I hope I'm getting a right agriculture is cheap and many Commodities are still cheap now copper is making all-time highs that's because words looks as though the world has become electrical electrical cars trucks and everything else well it turns out that a electric car uses several times as much copper as a combustion engineering car and yes it's his all-time highs now but electric cars are just getting started a lot of things are just getting started so it was already down 60 percent from its all-time high now it's up a lot in the last year as you point out Commodities have started moving and and in Bear markets for a while anyway they everything goes down no matter how wonderful it is doesn't mean you should rush out and buy silver today because it could get killed too in the bear market for a while but I would suspect that you ask how to protect yourself I would suggest that real assets partly because they are still the only cheap asset is a better place to be if you know a company that's going to find silver in Berlin you should buy all you can and then please call me because I want to buy because obviously the companies give you great Larry that's another great way to to make money in in a bull market but you remember Mark Twain Mark Twain once said listen a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top yeah he obviously lost a lot of money in the gold mine my point is there are hundreds of Silver Mines if you know the right one of course you'll make huge amounts of money but otherwise I mean physical physicals are a good way to play too Futures companies if you know what you're doing if you know what you're doing but the many ways to play but please don't do it if you don't know what you're doing the best advice is don't listen to me stay with what you know everybody watching this knows a lot about something whatever it is cars fashion something stay with what you know and then if something goes wrong you know what to do but if you listen to me and something goes wrong you don't know what to do but don't send me an email I'm not gonna tell you what to do when I make a mistake if I told you you can only have 20 investments in your life people would be very careful they would invest in what they know and they would be successful So my answer is stay with what you know and if you don't know anything put your money in the bank and wait until you find something that you know a lot about probably putting your money in the bank is which currency you know you might a lot of people put their money in Icelandic krona in 2007 because paying high interest but then Iceland went bankrupt and so they got wiped out so it's not easy I wish it was easy getting rich oh wouldn't that be wonderful it's not easy I did get a number of questions from folks about your opinion of several different Commodities um oil yep I I own oil I have I'm even contemplating by buying more right now when you say oil I mean assume you mean hydrocarbons oil natural gas uh yes things yes yeah I own it and I plan to buy more or oil is down 50 over 50 percent from its all-time high and known reserves continue to decline they've been declining for a long time that Along Came fracking well we had a wonderful bubble in fracking if you could spell fracking people would write you a check say please please invest and that wouldn't we all found out oh wait a minute they got to pay their bills they got to make money so Frankie's not going to disappear but the bubble is over and in the meantime known reserves of energy everywhere in the world are in Decline and have been continuing to be fine so yes we're all going to have electric cars someday apparently yes we're all going to have solar panels if we have electric cars I've got some silver I've got silver panels I've got some silver I have other ways to protect yourself I do own that uh hydrocar oil and actually I own cold too I own oil natural gas and cold you own I own urine yeah uranium stock I don't have physical uranium I hope not I have physical silver but I don't have any physical uranium ones well urine has been a disaster for a long time and and one of the things I've learned and I I disasters we've been talking about energy uh we've known reserves declining people are going to have to have electricity one way or the other and and I own uranium okay I mean the price of uranium has a in a gigantic disaster in the last few years and you probably know nobody's opening uranium mines I mean you know mines are closing minds are being depleted it's civil supply and demand I mean the Chinese have a lot of nuclear power and are building more the French maybe many European countries still have nuclear power uh nuclear power is cheaper and more efficient and better uh if you do it right right if you make a mistake you got Three Mile Island on your hand and that's not a modifier you got Chernobyl on your hand uh but no nuclear power is great if you do it right if you do it right and they haven't been that many nuclear power accidents in the past 50 years there have been some but no I I that's why I don't uh next commodity gym is is Farmland you've mentioned a number of agricultural Commodities no I certainly am uh I'm not going to become a farmer but if you like going out in the sun and being in the dirt would be a fabulous way to make a living and get rich because you know the average age of farmers in America is now 58.
in Japan it's 66. I can go on in the highest rate of suicide in the UK in agriculture many Indian Farmers have committed suicide more people in America study public relations than study agriculture we're running out there's no kind less and less competition unless we're going to stop wearing clothes and eating food uh agriculture is going to get better and and I would expect Pharma as I say if you really really love it go out and buy yourself a farm and you'll get very very very rich if not I own I own the ETF the way I do it but there are many ways to do it if you're going to invest please start with ETFs because that is a lot many Studies have shown that the average of investing in the indexes outperforms nearly all investors so unless you know a lot about cotton or whatever it is please start with ETFs please don't do it in anything unless you yourself know what you're doing because we're going to have a very difficult time sometime in the next two three years year one I don't know when it's coming and you must be knowledgeable and then you will get prepared and because it's going to be very difficult and many people will not survive and I hope all of you who are going to get prepared and I hope I survive too I I also want to say that please I know where all Americans uh but please contemplate opportunities in other countries because every one of us on this show our forebears came from somewhere else and invested and made Investments everybody Diversified Investments as far as nations are concerned there are a lot of great opportunities in other countries if you know what you're doing and it might be a very very good insurance policy as well as a way to make money so do not preclude investing elsewhere I mean Canada for instance I mean it's not very far away and they've got lots of Natural Resources they've done a less bad job of running their economy than we than Washington has that's just to give you I'm not suggesting you rush out and invest in Canada but I'm just using that as a simple example that when I say invest somewhere else I'm not saying some exotic thing like oh you must invest in Zimbabwe many places that are reasonable and you could understand find what you love a lot and pursue it and if people laugh at you really pursue it then I know you're right you know and and those are the people that are most successful as investors but as in whatever they do because they're the people that are happy they don't go to work they wake up every day and they have fun uh even if they're not successful they don't care they're happy so I'm trying to teach my girls I'm trying to teach them you know that money is to be saved not to be spent I'm trying to teach them to understand money but the real lesson I'm trying to teach them is figure out what you love a lot and pursue it no matter how absurd it is in fact the more absurd it is the more likely it is to be right
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