저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Schiff은 금이 10배 이상 올라 통화정책이 장기간 과도하게 완화됐다고 주장하며, 금광주가 과거 대비 여전히 저평가라 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 연준의 강달러 정책 발표는 말뿐이며 재정적자와 트럼프 정책 때문에 달러는 계속 약세일 것이라 주장한다. 파월의 금·달러 무관심 발언을 비판하며 금이 통화정책 피드백 지표라고 강조한다. 자신의 금 펀드 EPGIX 매수도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
He said that we're not on a gold standard, but we're on the next best thing because he uses gold to guide his decisions. He said gold is how he knows if he's got the right monetary policy, if he's too loose or too uh tight. He said if gold is getting above 400, I know we're too easy and we need higher rates.
He said if gold falls below 300, then I'm too tight. We need lower rates. Now, it shows you, you know, gold is 5,500 now, right? It's it's 10 times higher, more than 10 times higher. What does that tell you? Monetary policy has been too loose for too long. But the point I'm making here is that a prior Fed chairman said gold was his most important economic indicator as to the efficacy of Fed policy, a check on whether or not he was doing his job right.
Right. It was the free market, you know, check on the central bankers. Did you get interest rates right or wrong? Because the central banks are just picking interest rates, right? It's not the market. So, what what feedback do you have? How do you know if you're a Fed? If you're the Fed and you you set interest rates, how do you know that you got it right?
Well, what Greenspan said is we know because we I look at gold. I used to say that gold stocks were never as cheap as they were a year ago. And that was true. except now they're even cheaper despite the fact that they've tripled or quadrupled because their earnings are going to go up so much more than this the stock price because investors are in disbelief that they just think gold is going to crash because they don't know why it's going up.
They don't get it. Right? I get it. I understand this. Right? And and so there's going to be a huge uh payday for the people who buy gold stocks now. I'm confident of that. Right? this. They are mispriced. As mispriced as gold and silver were, that's why they're moving up so rapidly. They're just getting repriced.
They were underpriced for so long. Silver even longer. And now that's being corrected. Well, gold mining stocks are way underpriced even though they've gone up because they've gone up from absurdly low levels. They're still cheap. They're just actually they're cheaper than they were before, even though the price is higher.
So yes, it would have been better had you taken my advice and went all in on gold stocks six months ago, a year ago, like when I was pounding this desk telling everybody, you know, I put out a special report in March, April of last year, the best way to buy gold and I said buy gold mining stocks. Now, as it turns out, you made just as much just staying in gold and silver, right?
Because they went up by about the same amount. But I still believe that the best gold to buy is the gold that's still in the ground. Now, I don't know how much longer. You see how how much gold and silver went up in such a short period of time? Well, that's going to happen even bigger in the mining stocks.
So, as fast as gold and silver are going up right now, you're going to see a proportionate increase in the mining stock. So, get in, right? My gold fund EPGIX, if you want to buy that, the earliest you could buy it is tomorrow's close, right? So, you have to wait all day to get in. But, if you're just going to buy the individual stocks, you know, obviously you could buy them, you know, near the open.
uh the pattern has been, you know, they open higher, they sell off, they rally a bit till the close. You know, there's there's volatility, but at one point they're just going to go straight up, right? There's going to be a wall of money trying to come in to the gold mining stocks. And one of the reasons that so much money is going to go into gold and silver and mining stocks happened today.
What Jerome Pal said today at that press conference should make everybody run as fast as they can to buy as much gold as they can right away. Right? Because what he said is very scary. 6 months ago, gold mining stocks were an obvious buy. Many missed that initial surge, capturing gains only in bullion appreciation.
But the story isn't over. Gold and silver's meteoric rise sets the stage for mining equities to outperform in proportion. Market psychology lags reality. Investors doubt, fear a crash, and underestimate earnings growth. This delay creates a rare window. Volatility persists with early trading spikes followed by pullbacks.
Yet history shows that once institutional money floods in, prices can accelerate rapidly. Strategic entry points now can still capture extraordinary returns, especially for those tracking the strongest performing gold miners. The Fed left interest rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts. That was expected.
There were two descents. You know, shocking who these guys were, but two people wanted to cut again, right? But the rest of the board uh voted to stay where they are. And of course, in his normal prepared remarks, Pal went on about how good everything is and how great the economy is and they got everything under control and monetary policy is in a good place, right?
They're they're very happy. They're very pleased uh with the work that they've done, right? They think that that everything everything is great, right? And of course, they want to they want to claim credit for that. So, the real gems come out in the Q&A, right? And I mean, there are so many ridiculous things that were said.
I only want to focus on the most ridiculous, right? Because, you know, I I I don't want the podcast to go on and on and on. Uh I got to get ready, you know, I got, you know, I'm flying to, as I said, El Salvador in the morning. So, and I'm already tired. I had a I had a very long day. I was doing a lot of interviews today.
Maybe if I look a little tired, that that's why. But anyway, um, so one of the first questions he got was on the dollar, right, which is, you know, just plunged to a four-year low yesterday. Oh, and by the way, I forgot to mention this, but earlier in the day before the FOMC decision, um, Scott Besson, Secretary of the Treasury, came out and said, "The US is committed to a strong dollar." Right?
They rolled out the strong dollar policy, right? Recent Federal Reserve announcements have intensified market uncertainty. Despite three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed left rates unchanged, surprising some. Chairman Jerome Powell projected confidence in the economy, yet key details emerged in the Q&A.
Markets reacted to these subtle signals. The dollar weakened, inflation concerns rose, and investors rushed to tangible assets like gold. Historical patterns suggest that when central banks show restraint amidst economic risk, precious metals act as a hedge. This dynamic creates urgency for cautious investors.
Gold and mining stocks are no longer just safe havens. They are tactical instruments to profit from monetary policy misalignment. That started way back when when I think Clinton was was president, right? Uh we had this strong dollar policy. Now what was the strong dollar policy? The strong dollar policy was reciting we have a strong dollar policy.
That that was the extent of the policy, right? It was just just talking about the strong dollar. That that's all we had to do. But I wrote about it even in my old books that it was like ridiculous. Um because everything we were doing was weakening the dollar despite our policy to have a strong dollar.
I I I I said it was like a kid who, you know, cuts class, smokes dope, doesn't do his homework, right? And telling his parents he has a he has a straight A policy. You know, okay, great. You have a straight A policy. Well, you're not going to get A's if you cut class, if you're always stoned and you don't do your homework, right?
Your policy is inconsistent with your actions. Well, I can't think of policy that's more inconsistent with a strong dollar than what Trump is doing. Yet somehow they thought, well, let's just roll that policy out. Let's just say the US is committed to a strong dollar. And the dollar actually rallied on that.
What idiots, right? But that's, you know, how the algorithms are programmed. Oh, he said the strong dollar policy. Oh, we better buy the dollar, right? That's the whole policy. It's Trump has a weak dollar policy. He is jawboating the Fed to cut rates. Do you think that's going to strengthen the dollar, slashing interest rates?
No. What Trump wants will weaken the dollar? By by definition, Trump is running massive deficits. He's running up the debt. You think that's good for the dollar? No, it's bad for the dollar. Everything that Trump is doing is bad for the dollar. That's why the dollar is going down. You can't erase all that by just saying, "Whoa, we got a strong dollar policy." What the hell's that?
The US dollar recently dropped to a 4-year low despite ongoing strong dollar policy statements. These declarations often contradict fiscal realities. Deficits, aggressive debt issuance, and political pressures undermine the currency. Investor faith can't be restored by rhetoric alone. Powell's refusal to comment on dollar weakness highlights a disconnect between monetary authority and market reality.
The Fed's mandate for 2% inflation is at risk if the dollar continues declining, increasing import costs and eroding purchasing power. For global markets, a weakening dollar signals higher gold prices. Savvy investors view currency instability as a leading indicator to shift wealth into tangible assets.
Now one the next time maybe the Fed says we got I mean the secretary of the treasury says we got a strong dollar policy maybe the dollar will go down you know like the ESOP fable the boy who cried wolf right maybe if we roll out that strong dollar policy once too often no one's going to believe us right and the dollar is going to tank and it's going to tank gold is telling you that the dollar is going to tank right that's one of the messages anyway and I'm going to get to that in a minute but so let me go back to the question that pal got on the dollar.
Right now, I'm not making this up. If you think I'm making it up, go to YouTube and watch the interview, right? Because some people might think, "Ah, there's no way he said that. That's ridiculous. He He can't be that dumb." He is. He is that dumb. Trust me. So, anyway, so the reporter said, "The dollar has been diving recently.
It's falling a lot. Are you concerned about this?" um you know and what's behind it? Is it something we should we should worry about? Right? So that's the question like are you concerned about the dollar going down? He refused to answer the question. He never said whether he was concerned. He simply said that's none of my business.
Right? He says we don't you know the dollar that's not our belly wick. That that's the secretary that's the Treasury Department. He said it's not our role. Right? He said that we do monetary policy. you know, we don't comment on the dollar. And I'm like, what the hell is this guy talking about? What does he think the dollar is?
The dollar is our money. I mean, look at a dollar bill. Take one out of your pocket. Read what it's written. On the very top, it says Federal Reserve note. He's the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Those are Federal Reserve notes. Those are his notes. It says dollar on the bottom, right? The Fed gets top billing over dollar, but it's written on the same piece of paper.
Powell dismissed gold's price movements as irrelevant, ignoring centuries of precedent. Gold is not merely a commodity. It's the ultimate monetary gauge. Previous Fed chairs, including Alan Greenspan, monitored gold to assess policy efficacy. Rising gold suggested monetary looseness. Falling gold indicated tightness.
Today, gold surpasses historical highs, signaling that policy has been excessively loose. Ignoring this feedback disconnects central bankers from market reality. For investors, this disconnect offers opportunity. Gold surge reflects systemic risks, a hedge against currency devaluation, and a guidepost for future policy missteps.
Understanding these dynamics allows informed positioning before institutional investors accelerate buying. So dollars are Federal Reserve notes issued by the Fed. He's the chairman of the Fed and he can't comment on his own notes. I mean, what kind of nonsense is this? What kind of crazy Twilight Zone world are we living in when he says that he can't comment on money?
He's just in charge of monetary policy. Well, what's the monetary policy about if it's not about our money? This is asite. And first of all, he wasn't even asked to comment about, you know, does he think the dollar should go up or down? He wasn't asked to comment on the dollar policy. He was just asked, was he concerned about dollar weakness?
Can he even, you know, express a concern? Is he just supposed to ignore the value of the dollar? How are you going to conduct monetary policy? The Fed claims that it wants low inflation. Well, if the dollar is tanking, you're not going to get low inflation. If our money is losing value, that means prices are going up.
If the dollar is going down, right, it's going to cost more to import everything that we buy. Does he not think that this is going to impact the prices, right? If the dollar tanks and the price of everything we import goes up, does he think that's not going to show up in the CPI? How can he not look at that?
I mean the single most important part of his job is the value of the dollar. I mean think about it this way. He claims that his mission is 2% inflation. Right? That means he wants to make sure that the dollar only loses 2% of its value every year and no more. Okay. Well then how can he say I'm not concerned about the dollar?
How are you going to control the purchasing power of the dollar if the dollar is irrelevant? If you if you pay no attention to it, if it doesn't matter to you, what the exchange rate is? That is asinine. He can't comment on it. You know why he can't comment on it? Because he doesn't know. He's afraid to talk about it.
He doesn't want anybody to know, right, that the dollar's tanking, right? That the Fed is failing, right? That there's no way inflation is going to be 2%. But the media lets him get away with this nonsense. Am I the only one that could see the absurdity of somebody saying that our money has nothing to do with monetary policy?
I mean, it has everything to do with monetary policy. It's the only thing that is relevant to monetary policy. Gold and silver's rapid ascent has set the stage for mining equities to outperform significantly. The combination of undervaluation, earnings potential, and monetary instability creates a perfect storm.
Institutional money is poised to enter, triggering accelerated price movements. Investors who recognize this pattern can profit from both bullion and mining stocks. Strategic fund options or individual miners offer immediate entry points with volatility presenting buying opportunities. Long-term, the trajectory is clear.
Goldbacked assets and wellpositioned mining companies will reward those who anticipate market inefficiencies. This is a historic moment. Rare opportunities favor the informed, decisive, and patient investor. Now, just when you thought it couldn't get any stupider, he got a question on gold. Now, the gold question happened second to last, right?
It was the second to last one, right? Somebody said, "Gold and silver have been surging recently." And the reporter said, "Are you watching this, paying attention? Is there any message that is being sent by the precious metals market that maybe you should, you know, pay attention to? And Pal basically said, "No, absolutely not." You know, like we don't care.
We don't we don't pay attention to it. We don't think it has any relevance. So, we we don't care what happens uh to the price of gold. Now, gold is a monetary metal. It is the most important monetary metal in the world. He said that he is in charge of monetary policy. Well, isn't a monetary medal relevant to monetary policy?
How could it not be? Yet, according to Pal, he doesn't care. It means nothing. Gold could go to 10,000. Go to go 20,000. Doesn't matter, pal. How can it not matter? You know, I pointed this out on his podcast, but when Allan Greenspan was Fed Chair, same job as Powell, he said gold was the most important indicator that he looks at.
He said that we're not on a gold standard, but we're on the next best thing because he uses gold to guide his decisions. He said gold is how he knows if he's got the right monetary policy, if he's too loose or too uh tight. He said if gold is getting above 400, I know we're too easy and we need higher rates.
He said if gold falls below 300, then I'm too tight. We need lower rates. Now, it shows you, you know, gold is 5,500 now, right? It's it's 10 times higher, more than 10 times higher. What does that tell you? monetary policy has been too loose for too long. But the point I'm making here is that a prior Fed chairman said gold was his most important economic indicator as to the efficacy of Fed policy.
A check on whether or not he was doing his job right. Right. It was the free market, you know, check on the central bankers. Did you get interest rates right or wrong? Because the central banks are just picking interest rates, right? It's not the market. So, what what feedback do you have? How do you know if you're a Fed?
If you're the Fed and you you set interest rates, how do you know that you got it right? Well, what Greenspan said is we know because we I look at gold.
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