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Man, just like the Chiefs luau that I went to last night. The fire spinning. These markets are heating up, guys. As we're getting ready to go into 2024, and I'm telling you, some people who aren't skilled at handling these markets are absolutely going to get burned and roasted. You got to have the skills going into 2024.
And that's what we're doing here on the Stocks with Josh show. You guys know I've been on vacation here in Hawaii for the last month. At the end of this video, I'm going to post a couple more pictures from the luau that I went to last night. But I've got a very interesting show to break down for you guys.
a couple topics I want you to be aware of going into 2024 and we're going to cover some of the hot trades. So, the first question I'm going to ask today is what should the market expect going into an election year? And we know that we are dealing with a Fed that's potentially going to cut rates in 2024.
Both of these are going to have a huge impact on the market and I just wanted to recap the impact of those events. Well, as I've covered in a recent video, we know that the Fed is expecting to cut in 2024, sometime in March, potentially. That's just when the analysts and the experts expect that we'll get our first Fed cut.
Now, we do know that typically when the Fed finally cuts, it's a buy the rumor, the buy the rumor of the Fed cutting, sell the news of the Fed cutting. when the Fed actually goes to cut, his reason for cutting is that the economy is starting to slow down, which is a early warning sign to the stock market that we could be facing a recession.
And so that's the fear that could drive the markets down the minute he actually goes to cut rates. Believe it or not, even though the rate cuts are good for the market because it creates easing and it creates money going back into the economy, the fact is if he has to cut, it's because there's a problem with the economy.
And then we've got the fact that there is an election year upon us. According to Goldman Sachs Research, they typically say that the market will go up 4% 12 months prior to an election. Well, we are coming off of 2023 where the S&P 500 went up 24%. It was an incredible year, especially after the market had said that we would have the mother of all recessions and an absolute stock market Armageddon.
People were calling for an additional 50% drop after the market had dropped all of 2022, but it didn't happen. We actually had an incredible year. Now, we're going into 2024. the stock market is sort of back at its elevated highs, the same place that it had been at the end of 2021 before we had that difficult year.
And so the bears and bulls, they're fighting each other because the bears want to get their payday started by this market finally selling off of this current swing high. And I'm going to give you guys some fresh technicals on this S&P 500 as measured by the S&P to let you know what I think could happen and what the signal I'm looking for from the S&P 500 to know whether or not the markets are getting ready to sell off.
But let me just review the bare case argument going into 2024. The bears are saying that the stock market's too expensive, that these are elevated prices for big tech, that it's simply run too high, and it's time for profit taking. They also believe that the AI revolution is overhyped and overbought, and that there needs to be an AI reality check.
That's what the Bears are saying going into 2024. But the bulls, as I said a moment ago, they're just pointing to the fact that we've got the potential of quantitative easing coming from the Fed. Fresh, easy money, easy liquidity, and that's going to buoy stocks in the long run. And they want to begin to buy early for that.
And so the bulls are saying that this bull rally that we saw in 2023 has only just begun. Well, from my experience regarding election years, there's two things that Wall Street's looking for out of Washington in 2024. And the first thing that they want to see this election year is not what everybody else wants to see.
Everybody in America typically just wants to see the their party of choice win power and gain complete control. That that's not the mentality of Wall Street. Wall Street wants gridlock in Washington. They're happy when there's a divide between power and that the there's gridlock and they don't have the ability to make restrictive regulation and that's what they're looking for and so that's what they're going to want to see.
If one party swept the country, the market wouldn't like that. Just keep that in mind. The other thing that Wall Street expects out of Washington is a decisive and clear and quick victory. There's been in the last couple elections ambiguity and questions about um interference in both of the last two elections.
People have sort of denied not my president. If there's any of that or if the election process drags on for any reason, the market will punish stocks and they will sell off because they hate indecision. So going into 2024, they want to see gridlock and they want to see a decisive outcome to the election.
Now, let's just dive into the S&P 500 and look at where it's at and where it could be possibly going. Guys, I see the top of resistance, the ultimate peak of resistance at 4820. And here's the point I want to make for you guys today about watching that 4820 price point on the S&P 500 as measured by the S&P.
We want to see whether we can get any candles to close above that level. I think we're going to hit that level and I think we're even going to push past it. But I think that before the market ends that day, we're going to see it fall back beneath 48.20. I think that's going to be a tough level for the market to close above.
If we get a close above, there's actually the opportunity for this market to go as high as 4,900 on the S&P. But if we get to 4820 and we get a really strong rejection of that level, then we're going to begin to look for candles at the top of the range, rejection candles that could signal signal to us that there's more selling ahead.
That's what I want you guys to keep an eye out on the S&P 500. Now, I want to take a quick or you just want to accumulate cash going into 2024, Mumu has one of the very best offers. They're giving away up to 15 free stock, but their best offer right now is they're giving you 5.1% interest for just holding your cash.
And so, you can begin to get set up. It's available in the US, Australia, and Canada. You can get your free stocks. You can start earning money on your cash. and you can begin to get better trade tools. All right, let's recap some of the hot trades, guys. I've given these hot trades on the Discord. If you're not familiar with the Discord, it is the Stock Squad Patreon with Stock Up with Larry Jones, Keenan Grace, Stockmo, and myself.
There is also a link for that in the top pin comments. Now, the first trade I'm going to give you guys I gave back in December, and it was for Unity, ticker U. We hit the target of $42.50 just in the last week. I gave you guys an update when this was around $39 and we had come up all the way from the low30s, which is where I told everybody I was taking my position.
We hit my target of $40. And I said, "Guys, we're not done. We are going to get above 4250." And we did that yesterday. And so now the big question is, what do we do? Is it time to lock in profit or hold a winner? that's still pushing higher. Well, I'm going to tell you guys how I'm going to make that decision.
It's time to look at the candles. Right now, we don't have a rejection candle. It's actually a pretty strong flat little wick candle, which tells me that this thing wants to move higher. And so, if it can get a close above $42.50, I think we're going to squeeze and push up to $45. But if we get that move, I will be locking in profits because I believe that it's going to digest that bigger move and ultimately come back to 3960 where I would be looking to re-enter and go long even further down the road.
That's what I'm doing with Unity, guys. Let me know if you've made some money with Unity, if you're still holding or if you locked in profits last week. Let me know. For me, there's still room up on Unity. I'm still holding on to this winner. All right, TNA. Now, this is another call that I gave on this channel recently.
And this this trade is all about the fact that small caps were pushed down in 2022. They never really recovered in 2023. And I at the moment am believing that 2024 is the year of small cap recovery and we are getting in early on this play. Now, I gave this when it was at $37 on December 15th and I told you guys that we would hit $41, which we did.
If you traded the call options with me, you got a 100% return on that play. Now, again, here's what I'm watching for. $42 is the area of resistance that this has to decisively with volume close above. If it does, we're going to shoot as high as $48. But be prepared for some rejection at $42. Local support at the moment is 38.80.
And so we're watching the candles. I'm going to tell you right now, I've already studied the charts. The candles don't look bearish. We're at the top of a range and they look bullish. And so I'm also holding TNA moving forward, but carefully watching the candles. Now, the last one is a small cap and it's WISH, WISH.
This stock is kind of an ugly bearish stock and the bears have control of it, but I think the bulls are slowly wrestling control away on Wish. Now, I picked it not because I myself favor these small cap investments, nor do I normally look for them. I actually prefer Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, and Tesla.
Those are my go-to stocks to invest in right now. But I try to pick small cap stocks for people in the Discord who are trying to grow a small account because it really is one of the fastest ways of growing a small account. So I identified WISH as a buy between 550 and 520. We came down to 527. And the fact is if you bought anywhere between 550 and 527 like I said you're up right now.
So this is going according to plan. But I wanted to give you guys a fresh focus of expectation on WISH. If we get a close above $6.40, that's going to be what's called a change of character. And I think we're going to get a squeeze because there's too much short interest. The greedy shorts have been holding WISH too long.
And I think the bulls are getting ready to push it out of their control. And if they get it above $6.40, we're going to hit $8. And that's where the real win is for Wish. Now, if you're not in Wish and your first time hearing about it, I wouldn't get into it personally unless it were to come back to $565.
That's where if we get a slight pullback, that's where I'm going to add to my wish position. Now, my stop loss is around $5.40, and that's largely where my overall average price is. Now, there's no guarantee this is going higher, but I'm holding it for a nice potential push up to $8. It would be a huge win.
Follow along. Let's see how Wish turns out. Now, I think that a lot of people are often looking for what am I doing with Tesla. Guys, you know, if you've been on this page that for the entire month of December, I called it a buy the dip on Tesla. And that's paid off repeatedly. Each and every time Tesla's dipped, I've given it the benefit of the doubt that there was room for it to go higher.
And each time it's gone higher. Now, yesterday I took profits, not because I don't believe it's going higher, but because I was looking at that daily chart. I was looking at the hour time frames. Four different times it tried to push through resistance and it failed. On the fourth time, I decided to lock in some profits.
Turned out to be a perfect call because we saw a fast capitulation. Now, we've come back to an area, and this is the one of the main reasons why I'm taking the time to do this video for you guys while I'm on vacation, is because I knew you would want to know what I'm doing with Tesla. And I reloaded the boat at 252 range, 25260.
That's the load the boat range for me because I believe if you're looking at the big long historic time view of Tesla, that we've got to come up and test that line of resistance at 270. I think it's inevitable. And if you take a step back from that and you look at the local time frame, weekly time frame chart, you see that we've already broken above a bullish descending parallel channel.
That's the way these patterns work. We've already broken above it. And I think that that's an indication, another indication pointing to me that Tesla's moving strong. Now, it is up against resistance. And so, if it can break through this resistance, it's going to find a lot of power. we're going to get a massive green candle and it's going to push us higher.
That's what I'm leaning towards believing Tesla's going to do. So, I bought the dip again in Tesla and that's the main reason why I made this video so you guys could knew what I did. I liked that 250 260 to 3 to 253 range. That was my ideal entry range. Let's see if it holds. Now, if it didn't hold, true support, I was looking at the charts a moment ago, was right around 243.
And so, yes, Tesla can do amazing things when it wants to go down. It can go down very quickly. Uh, I would simply double my position if we did lose this range if I wasn't watching it and got out. More than likely, that move would occur after hours. And so, I'd be forced the following day to simply add to my position.
I am going to continue to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt because I don't believe the Tesla move is over. But as we've moved higher and higher, the risk has gotten uh greater and greater. So be aware of that. Let me know in the comments section if you guys are trading Tesla, if you're bullish like I am for Tesla right now.
I noticed yesterday that there was a ton of bearish articles coming out. You know what? When I see those bearish articles, they don't move me. I often am seeing them as a motivation to buy because I see the market wanting to turn against Tesla, getting people to let go of their shares because we're getting ready for a big move.
That's just my interpretation. Let me know what you think of that in the comments section. Appreciate all of you guys joining me. I'm going to throw a couple of my Hawaii trip photos here at the end for you guys for those who are interested. If you want to join me in 2024, hit that subscribe button.
Just want to wish you all a happy new year. Peace and blessings. We'll talk to you soon.
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