저자: 미상 · 외국인
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빅테크(FATMANG) 실적 시즌을 앞두고 SPY·QQQ 지지/저항을 짚으며 시장이 약세 추세에 들어섰다고 진단. 페이스북·구글·엔비디아·아마존 등은 하락 추세로 보고 저항 돌파 전 숏 관점 유지, 테슬라는 900 지지 이탈 시 약세, MSFT는 실적 호조로 저항 돌파 여부 주목, 애플은 156.5 이중 바닥 후 162~168 테스트 전망. 전반적으로 대형주 약세 추세가 장기 약세장 우려로 이어질 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
we'll look at the big tech earnings that make up the majority of the tech sector and we will be using the acronym fatmang for facebook apple tesla microsoft amazon nvidia and google so so i am filming this intraday so you will see the price action jumping around and so far on spy we are getting a bounce off of that very strong support at 416 and we're currently above 420 so there is going to be the possibility we get that bounce to test resistance right around 428 to 433.5 so as you know big tech does help move the market because a lot of those companies have a lot of weight by market cap and that will help move spy in the triple q's so right now we see spy getting a little bit of a bounce off that support and if we jump over to the triple q's we can also see a similar sign bouncing off of that previous low right around 318 but do remember the triple q's did make a new low this morning so there was the possibility of that little bit of a stop raid before we get the bounce which means we could still go quite a bit lower before we get the strong balance but so far it looks like we are bouncing from here and the strong resistance on the triple q's will be right around 3 and 341 and that could be another lower high before we continue to see more downsides so watch those resistance levels so starting out with our fat man analysis we will look at facebook first and facebook absolutely got crushed the last time it reported earnings and just gapped down and continued to trend lower until we started getting into this trading range so right now facebook is bouncing between a trading range but right now it looks like it could be breaking out of that range to the downside so that trading range was between 186 and 235 and we did break down below 186 so the next likely price target will be down here at 160 but we do have earnings after the belt today so that is going to be the catalyst whether we go down to 160 now or we start to bounce to a possible higher low before we go hit that price target so when you get a stock that looks this bearish you got to remember that the trend is your friend and the benefit of the trend is going to help traders stay on the right side of the trade so there's still going to be a lot of facebook bears until it gets a bullish breakout and at this point the bullish breakout isn't until we start closing back above 211 and getting back over the 50 ema which is a negatively sloping moving target so right now you need to be bearish on facebook until it can start closing above 211 and breaking out to a new high above 235 and we do have a gap to fill right around 231 so watch that level as well if we do start to break above 211 but as long as we're below 211 and have this bear trend and we're breaking down to new lows below support you really need to pay attention to this price target on facebook stock down here at 160 and obviously with earnings being a major catalyst we are going to see a wild swing after the bell so i don't suggest gambling during earnings just wait for the price action to settle after the earnings and then you'll know the direction the stock is likely going to take over the next few months and then you can set up a trading plan on facebook accordingly if you want to trade this stock so right now you're looking for resistance right around 186 and 211 and you can start getting more bullish above 2011 but you need to be very cautious below 186 because while even though i do have a price target down here at 160 there is no guarantee that we have to stop at that level we could continue to go lower if earnings are horrible and facebook is still not figuring out their problems so this is clearly in a bear trend and that is the theme of the stock market right now with a lot of bearish momentum and a lot of big stocks we are definitely going into a bear market if we can't break out to a new higher high next up on fatman will be apple stock and apple stock is bouncing off of that price target because we did have the confirmed double top with the price target down here at 156.5 so from here we'll be looking for a test of resistance at 162 and right around 168 and we will be looking more bullish if apple stock can break out and close above 168.
so right now you need to know that apple is heading into a bear trend the longer it stays below 168 but it will be looking more bullish above 168 and if we break below this low at 156 we're looking for a test of support at 150 and 147. we have earnings on apple stock after the bell on thursday and that should be enough of a catalyst to bounce apple up to resistance because microsoft did report earnings and they did do well and typically if microsoft does well you can expect apple to do the same so right now i am bullish on apple coming off of this price target at 156 for at least the retest of 162 to 168 and then if we get rejected from resistance and continue to trend lower i'll have my eyes on a potential double bottom at 156 or a re-test of the low at 150.
if we do get the bullish break out above 168 don't forget we do have a gap at 174 so that will be your bullish price target on a confirmation of a breakout next on the list will be tesla stock making up the t in fat mangan we could see tesla had a very bearish candle yesterday and sliced through three critical support levels and today we're back above one of them critical support at 900 is an absolute must for tesla bulls to stay above because if we break below 900 we are more than likely going to see the bear market which means tesla could start trending all the way back down to retest the lows around 765 or the previous low at 700 even though we will have support on the way there right around 856 to 828.
so below 900 on tesla you need to consider the bear market scenario and you can start getting a lot more bullish if we can close back over 975 with resistance on the way there at 9 37 above 9.75 this looks like it was just a correction that could be completed and then we could start back into a bull trend to possibly get a bullish breakout but we won't have the bullish breakout until we start closing above about 11 40.
so stay cautious on tesla at this very critical support and if you start to see bullish breakouts then you can grow your confidence to the bull side otherwise you're looking for a rejection at a lower high and a continuation of the bear market as we trend down to tesla lows in the 700s next up is microsoft stock and we can see microsoft is doing very well after earnings going up over seven percent currently and blasting through this resistance right around 289 so it does look like it's going to come up here and test resistance right around 294 and possibly even close the gap at 296.
above 296 it looks like it's getting a lot more bullish but if we get rejected around 294 and continue to trend lower you are looking for a bear market with the confirmation of a break below 270. so you're getting into very strong resistance around 294 to 296 and you're getting a lot more bullish above 296 for the gap close at 310 and the bullish breakout right around 307 so above 307 look for the gap closed at 310 and will likely develop a bull trend otherwise you're staying bearish if we get rejected below 294 to 296 with strong support down here right around 275 and 270.
on amazon stock we did test the very critical support level which will define the bear market if we do break below it which is down here right around 27 20. if we lose that support level after earnings we are more than likely going to see a prolonged bear market in amazon stock that could take it all the way down to 23.26 so take that support at 2720 very seriously because we could be going much lower if we do break it but i do think at this point it's more likely we need to form a lower high get rejected at a resistance level form the bear trend and then break that support level to go into the bear market so you're looking for strong resistance on amazon around 28.89 and around 3010 and this 50 ema right around 3086.
you can see we'll have the bear trend as soon as tomorrow so as long as we're trading below three thousand eighty dollars you need to be very cautious of a lower high before we go into a bear market and obviously the earnings after the bell act closed tomorrow will dictate which direction this is going and usually when something is getting oversold there is the likelihood of a dead cat bounce in the short term so look for a lower high and a rejection at resistance to get bearish otherwise you're getting a lot more bullish above the 50 ema and the bullish breakout above 3177 with the possibility to close that gap at 32.65 there's no way this stock is bullish if it breaks below 2720 so that's your line in the sand for the bear market and we're getting a lot more bullish above 3000 and 31.77 on nvidia stock you can see it's looking extremely bearish as we continue to trend lower with the strong bear trend in the bearish price action and we do have a valid price target now down here all the way at 150 but it is likely we need to form that lower high and get rejected from resistance before we continue to the downtrend because we are getting a little oversold nvidia doesn't have earnings until later in may and we do have very strong resistance levels above that we could get rejected from as we continue into this downtrend so strong resistance levels that i would like to see tested will be right around 210 223 and 230 and any of those levels could be a lower high as we continue to trend lower if we start breaking above 210 and can reclaim that level as support that will be a bullish development but we do have a bear trend so we really shouldn't be getting bullish until can at least get back over the 50 ema which is currently at 236.
i also have a very strong resistance at 244 and at this point i think you should be bearish on nvidia stock unless it can close above 244 even though just because it's bearish doesn't mean you can't take long trades off support while we get dead cat bounces i do mean in a longer term swing trading environment you shouldn't be holding this stock for the long term while it's trading below 244 dollars above 244 you're looking for the gap close at 258 and the bullish breakout is above 267 to about 272.
on google stock we did have earnings yesterday and google did report some missed earnings on their ad revenue so they are getting beaten down today and they're currently trading below the critical support at 23.92 but they did open a gap above that doesn't feel until we get back to 23.68 now just keep in mind anytime you see a stock with a lot of gaps to the upside and it just continues to flush to the downside that is a bearish market and that is bearish price action when you get these breakaway gaps and you just get this waterfall wave of selling that means everybody is running for the door they're willing to sell at lower and lower prices and nobody is willing to buy so you can safely assume that google stock is already heading into that bear market just like a lot of these other stocks that we're looking at like facebook and nvidia and that does mean from here you are looking to short at resistance until we get a bullish breakout so strong resistance on google will be up here at 23.92 24.98 and 2600 and we can get a lot more bullish if we start closing back above the 2650s and the 2700s the downside price target is right around 21.95 and 21.75 so if we continue to get rejected and form lower highs you are looking for that price target down there just below 2200.
respect the fact that there's bearish price action with a strong bear trend in google stock so don't be getting overly bullish until you get the confirmation of the bullish breakout and yes it is getting way too oversold so i do expect to see it testing resistance in the very near future even though it did have bad earnings nothing can stay oversold forever especially when you're a big tech giant like google stock so jumping back over the s p 500 you can see we're currently still bouncing off this support at 416 but there's still about three and a half hours left until the market closes so i will look at the market again at closing prices and give another assessment but right now all eyes are going to be on these big tech earnings and that's why i want to do this special video update you can see a lot of these big tech names are clearly already in bear markets and it's all on the shoulders of big stocks like microsoft and apple to carry the market higher and that is just not going to be sustainable in the long term so we need to see more of these companies reporting solid earnings and we need to see some of these charts looking more bullish otherwise we are very likely going to see ourselves entering that prolonged bear market so take the price action in the chart seriously because as you know i always say price action cannot lie to you and there is nothing that we're seeing in the price action that tells us we need to be bullish right now you can see that even in 2008 during that bear market that bank trade alerts beat the market had a very positive year so if you're interested in learning more information or how to subscribe to bank trade alerts you can find out all the information in the description below ies to channel discord server you
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