저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 특정 종목의 단기 가격 예측보다 Chamath 개인의 창업·투자 철학과 경험담이 중심이며, 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음. 창업 배경: Facebook 초기 성장팀(VP of Growth)에서 광고 시스템과 플랫폼 사업을 설계했고, 이후 Social Capital을 설립해 독립함. 투자 철학: 복리 효과와 소규모 실험의 누적을 강조하며, 확률적 사고와 포트폴리오식 베팅을 지향함. 스타트업 관점: 스타트업은 정의상 이단적(heterodoxical)이어서 대부분의 신호가 부정적이므로, 빠른 실패와 초기 성공 피드백 루프가 필요하다고 설명함. 비트코인 언급: 2011년 전 세계 비트코인의 약 5%를 보유했던 경험을 언급했으나, 향후 가격 전망은 제시하지 않음. 과거 펀드 성과: 최근 3년간 펀드 수익률이 이전 펀드보다 좋았다고 주장하며, 10억 5천만 달러 규모의 펀드를 운용한 경험을 설명함(과거 실적으로 예측 아님). 개인 고백: 자신감 부족과 성취 욕구에 대한 솔직한 고백을 하며, 가족과의 관계 균형을 언급함. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 발언 없음. 리스크: 영상 내 투자 판단 근거가 제시되지 않아 실제 투자 참고 자료로는 한계가 있음.
다듬은 글
I said I need to prove this to myself I had used all of this infrastructure around me as a crutch I had never been in the wind you know the in the in the wilderness alone naked afraid I had to do it and so when I made this decision I did this other crazy decision I took a billion and a half dollars and I said here's of my money fund for this is it I'm on the hook every single dollar now I have to figure out what to do with foreign in the first year the executive team was Zuckerberg Matt Kohler no this guy Owen van NADA this guy I know yeah from Amazon yeah from Amazon Gideon you who was at the uh who had 29 years later he had he had been the CFO of YouTube and then had taken a job as a partner at Sequoia and then unquit untaken the job to join us at Facebook um and a couple of other people and there was a lot of executive churn at the time people coming in people coming out um and I went off to sort of try to help invent um the ad business and a bunch of other modalities including the platform business of Facebook and in the process of that we invented some really compelling technology and you can Google the patents but if you look at the patents that we were awarded in that period me Zuck a handful of others but it's a lot of the fundamental underpinnings of Web 2.0 you know how do you actually do cross-site Communications how do you actually inject JavaScript into somebody else well the security guys are freaking out but you know I get it um at the time we all trusted each other you know so it's like it's fine this is gonna happen um but because none of these things were solved problems at the time so we had to go and solve these things and in doing that we implemented an advertising system that we called social actions where the idea is that you would be perusing a website off of Google we would be we invented a cookie we invented the first cookie okay um we would kind of like cash all this information and we would generate this ad for you while lo and behold everybody freaked out there was a person who was browsing um engagement rings and then it showed up on his girlfriend's news feed you know John is buying an engagement ring at sales um then there was a guy that had bought a ticket and a movie uh to a movie that had offended his co-workers or something long and short of it was we ended up getting sued by like 13 State Attorneys General and we were accused of stealing information or whatever and I tried to go to the New York Times to try to explain it and that backfired so it was a moment of of deep skepticism and negativity internally both about me and my Effectiveness and my role but also the company how could we make money how do we move Beyond ads and so I said okay I'm gonna throw this Hail Mary there's a guy on my team Alex Schultz who is now the CMO who said you know we need to think about how we grow this business and make back some of this theoretical damage and I sat with Alex and he explained a lot of this stuff to me and look a lot of my life is being lucky enough to be around these smart people where for me it's about taking what they say embracing it and extending it a little bit more and what we developed was this idea of having a hyper aggressive approach to expanding the network and the density of the graph and I went and I pitched at the port and I said you know and then I remember the day before or something Cheryl called me and she we walked through the plan she's like well what are you gonna call this thing because we can name this thing and it's like I don't know we have to grow this thing because it's not growing and she said okay he'll be the VP of growth and I said okay um and that's how it started so very humble beginnings and in the first six or nine months or nothing happened because I would bring a team I'm about half the size of this team together Engineers product managers designers and every Wednesday we would I would say okay what experiments did you run what have you figured out and for the first six months it was much of nothing and so it didn't feel like things were working and then all of a sudden just the things started to accumulate and we learned look Albert Einstein said you know the greatest thing that's really been invented is is compound interest right you know like this really the eighth wonder of the world and we saw it in real time in front of our eyes 10 basis points here or five basis points there seven basis points here and my mind clicked because that made sense to me probabilistically more of an investing mindset so it really became to me the next three years was purely about me allocating capital I felt like I'm an investor I'm making bets something's become unicorn something becomes Duds and it manifests in a bunch of different products a lot of it ended up working and then you know it came to a point where I said it was a and then and then obviously I got in the way of some things as well and it was a moment to decide I either stay invest which was a complicated decision to say no to because there was a lot of money on the table or I leave and I chose to leave as Dave Chappelle said I got off the bus but on good terms at that point at this at that point it was great you know what had happened was we had tried to build a phone and I had taken a team off to go and build an operating system um and an act and an actual physical implementation and the like a physical form factor it was quite unique in the moment but it was caught up in a lot of my own issues as a human being and trying to come to terms with the fact that to be very honest you know this is ultimately zuck's company and his decisions and you know I mattered but really not that much you know and I had to really internalize that that was true and that if I wanted to have my real stamp and make decisions it would have to be my own thing and so I I asked them if they would support me to leave they were very kind they gave me some initial capital and then I raised a bunch more and I started social capital and it's been amazing these last 12 years have been really truly amazing I didn't believe in myself and I fundamentally and this goes to explain why some of the people that sent you an email they can take a snapshot of me and say I don't like that guy but what they're seeing probably in that moment is me feeling really insecure about myself and saying or doing something to try to just get attention but really it's an attempt for me to make myself feel better and so when I started as a kid with zero credentials immigrant to the United States I didn't go to Harvard I didn't go to Stanford I didn't have any of these things I thought I needed to look like everybody else in order to succeed and so the first version of of Social Capital was my attempt to copy everybody else and so yeah when you first met me I thought okay well I don't have an MBA so I need to recruit somebody with an MBA you know I don't have these connections to traditional LPS I need to have them I wanted to go and invest in you know Bitcoin in 2011 and but instead I was you know doing very traditional people were asking me what's the next app after um Instagram and then at some point I said no I gotta really start to do this for myself and so I started to make these small bets which really spoke to my own internal voice and when those things started to work out I had the courage to really stick to that and that's a really important challenge it's both a challenge for the entrepreneur and the investor because you get signals that will always startups by definition are heterodoxical because if it was already solved and it was already part of the common Logic the lingua Franc of how the world works you would not have an opportunity so by definition you are going to have an entire system that tells you this isn't working an investor is the same thing because now you have to identify with those people and those ideas that are again heterodoxical and offered to the fringes and figure out a way to embrace it and move it into the center so you have very few moments where you feel like the signal is true and an infinite number of occasions where everybody is telling you you're wrong so what do you do and that is a process that I was able to go through and you need those feedback loops you need to fail quickly enough and you need to get enough successes early enough to give you confidence at least for me because I didn't have the intestinal fortitude to stick it up I would have crumbled to the will of the masses without it you know at one point in 2011 I owned five percent of all the Bitcoins in circulation and I thought to myself I sound like an idiot and I went to Mike Bloomberg who was a mentor of mine I said can I write this op-ed for you and he's like yeah sure whatever Bitcoin I have no idea what this is just right is um and I was like you know everybody should basically have one percent of their portfolio allocated to this and I just remember how dumb I was made to feel whenever I went to New York and every time I would go on CNBC in the early 2000s you can see these clips on YouTube they treated me so poorly and I had to defend myself almost as a as a person they would show this clip of Charlie Munger and Gates and Buffett who are my heroes not Gates so much but Buffett and Munger are my heroes saying that stuff is like rat poison and then uh are you you know you're like you're a rat poison you know you're and you have to defend yourself you know how hard that is um it's really uh really and I still don't and and I think that this is the Journey of the person who is trying to achieve a lot is unfortunately as I've seen it really really well balanced people don't necessarily believe that there's such a need to keep achieving and I think that they find happiness much better I'm sure you have friends like that I have friends like that I'm very envious of them um the reason I keep going after this Phantom Ghost that I'm chasing is because I don't believe in myself and I think that if I slay that ghost or if I achieve that thing it will solve all the problems and I know the joke the joke is that it doesn't solve anything but I keep chasing it so you know I don't know what that means I'm still running on the treadmill um but I'm at least more conscious of that and those trade-offs I kind of Justified to myself as what else would I do um and I think that that's okay um but it it explains why a lot of folks are just become so maniacally driven they're trying to fill a hole inside them and I'm trying to learn how to look at my kids and have them fill my hole to look at my wife and have it fill my hole it's just that sounded bad you know what I'm trying to say uh you know what I mean that's what I mean basically the way that like investing works is there's momentum investing that could be a lot of Silicon Valley in the 2000s I think 2010s okay then there's sort of like p l investing you look at cash flows money in Money out then there's macro investing which is really about how these systems of government and institutions work together and then there's the philosophical investing where the absolute grades don't care about any of this stuff they see a philosophy they have a system and I think Stan is one of those guys so the point is you know when you when you looked at guys like that they were constantly moving and they were constantly pushing themselves to retool their skill set and what they were really good at was managing risk entry point making sure that you generated returns and so I said I need to prove this to myself I had used all of this infrastructure around me as a crutch I had never been in the wind you know the in the in the wilderness alone naked afraid I had to do it and so when I made this decision I did this other crazy decision I took a billion and a half dollars and I said here's of my money fund for this is it I'm on the hook every single dollar now I have to figure out what to do with and the craziest thing happened the returns in the last three years have been better than all the other funds before it not surprised even my arms and they were bigger so the funds were bigger the returns were better um and so it proved
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