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druckenmiller points to millennial money and west coast tech money as interested in bitcoin as a store of value as a reserve asset he also points out that there is a lot of that and with the greatest generational transfer of wealth in history on the verge to millennials there's going to be more of that but there's a second line that we need to hone in on if the gold bet works the bitcoin bet will probably work better he cites liquidity ease of use etc this is obviously huge welcome back to the breakdown with me nlw it's a daily podcast on macro bitcoin and the big picture powershifts remaking our world the breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com and nexo.io and produced and distributed by coindesk what's going on guys it is tuesday november 10th and today we are talking about the latest legendary investor to turn bitcoin bull stan druckenmiller himself however before that let's do the brief first on the brief today some caution returns to markets after yesterday's euphoria the wall street journal said yesterday's rally likely overdone now of course we talked about this on the show yesterday the s p 500 saw its second highest close on record and the whole point of the whole excitement was about pfizer's report that its vaccine candidate had prevented 90 of coveted cases in its recent trial this sent the markets into overdrive it had them buying up the stocks that had been systematically repressed by kovid things like airlines and carnival cruises while selling off work from home stocks things eased off somewhat today as the markets remembered a few things first they remembered that we were having the seventh straight day of a hundred thousand plus covid19 cases which of course is bringing with it increased speculation about a second round of lockdowns people remember that even if this vaccine works it's still going to take time not only to approve but to distribute everywhere it's needed nick brooks the head of economic and investment research at intermediate capital group said the pandemic still has a ways to go unfortunately the pfizer development is a great development but i don't think it's the game changer that markets seem to perceive what's more the other question that's coming up is questions of long-term shifts these radical switches from work from home stocks to other things reflect a sense that would seem to reflect a belief that once this vaccine hits everything goes back to normal but that may just not be the case nick brooks again said quote it's far too early for investors to be making a structural shift from growth to value there's been pretty substantial damage to economies and that's going to take some time to repair a final note on why the markets might be cooling off is that they're realizing that if there is in fact a vaccine that works it creates incentive for there to be less money printing it creates a context for congressional republican senate republicans to hold back on more stimulus so the markets don't like when less bur happens and that may explain part of today's back off of yesterday's rally second on the brief today here comes a lebanese digital currency central bank governor riyad salema said that lebanon plans to introduce a digital currency next year in order to one restore confidence in the banking sector and two transition the country to a cashless system he said quote lebanon doesn't have any natural resources we have to keep the gold because it's an asset that could be liquidated in foreign markets if we face an inevitable fateful crisis the context that he's referring to here really matters lebanon has been seen for decades as a safe place for the region's money its banking sector has been historically its most important economic sector but last fall a two decades-long dollar peg began to break subsequently we've seen mass capital controls mass demonstrations and the numbers are really staggering for a very long time since 1997 up to last year 1515 lebanese pounds equaled one u.s dollar however starting last october the black market exchange rate started to shoot up hitting all the way up to 9 700 lebanese pounds per dollar at the beginning of july before falling back down somewhat over the last month the rate has ranged wildly between 6 600 at the low which is still 4 times what it was a year ago to 8 600 lebanese pounds to the dollar at the high digital currency or not restoring confidence with that context is going to be rather difficult last up on the brief today coindesk has just published three reasons bitcoin has rallied more than 60 in two months and i thought it'd be fun to review them their first argument is increased institutional participation so obviously square and micro strategy have both announced treasury reserve holdings in bitcoin during this time we also see bitcoin whales on the rise these are addresses or clusters of addresses that hold at least one thousand bitcoin these hit a four year high last month a second factor is a supply crunch right that micro strategy buying grayscale's bitcoin trust buying these represent large spot buyers that are actually putting pretty significant pressure on the supply and on top of that you have just simply a lack of retail sellers finally they argue that there was a technical breakout where people had pointed to 12 500 as a key technical resistance and once that broke it was up up up whatever the specific reasons there is no doubt that bitcoin is on people's minds and so with that let's move to our main discussion you'll remember a couple months ago famed investor stan druckenmiller made head spin when he went on cnbc and said that not only for the first time in a long time was inflation something that we had to take seriously but that five to ten percent inflation wasn't out of the question he called our current monetary policy in that interview absolutely raging mania well he was back on cnbc yesterday first let's discuss what he had to say about the markets in general more or less he argued that the behavior that we saw was completely rational quote you've had a bunch of equities benefiting greatly from work from home a lot of money has rotated into them they are overvalued but then you've got a whole other sector of the market that has struggled mightily because of kovid they're selling it under value relative to say a three to five year outlook so the rotation into that would seem entirely rational basically his point is that the markets seeing this covid19 vaccine on the horizon reminded them that over the course of a one to two to three to five year time frame there will be some recalibration i don't think it goes back completely to normal i think that certain genies are out of the bottle when it comes to working from home and remote work et cetera but i think that there is probably underselling in some parts of the market and over selling in other parts of the market so that's kind of what stan druckenmiller was saying yesterday as it related to traditional markets this episode is brought to you by crypto.com the crypto super app that lets you buy earn and spend crypto all in one place and earn up to eight point five percent per year on your bitcoin download the crypto.com app now to see the interest rates you could be earning on btc and more than 20 other coins once in the app you can apply for the crypto.com metal card which pays you up to eight percent cash back instantly on all purchases reserve yours in the crypto.com app today looking for the best way to stay on top of your investment game nexo.io has you covered in three easy steps with their high-yield savings account for digital assets step 1 create an account at nexo.io step 2 transfer assets to your securenexo wallet with no minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited step 3 sit back relax and earn up to 10 compounding interest paid out daily on your crypto and fiat your passive income made simple get started at nexo dot io then he shifted back to talk about inflation he reiterated a point that he made in that previous conversation that we're likely to see pretty serious inflation over the next five to six years due to stimulus measures now don't forget the conversation we had yesterday on the show about how increased confidence from a vaccine could actually unleash inflation by significantly increasing monetary velocity the tldr on the point that i was making is that right now the money supply growth hasn't increased inflation significantly because it's being held back by the fact that people aren't spending as much as they would otherwise they are trying to be more resilient they're trying to be more savings oriented suppressing monetary velocity if they get confidence back that could change and all of a sudden that increased spending could run right into the big money supply growth that we've seen anyway that wasn't all for struck and miller he also shared for the first time some thoughts on bitcoin let's listen to a clip from that right here i have warmed up to the fact that bitcoin could be an asset class that has a lot of attraction as a store of value to both millennials and the new west coast money and as you know they got a lot of it it's been around for 13 years and with each passing day it picks up more of its stabilization of a brand so i own many many more times gold than i own bitcoin but frankly if the gold that works the bitcoin bat will probably work better because it's thinner and more liquid and has a lot more beta to it so let's reiterate what drug and miller just said first was the setup and the setup has to do with new market participants specifically druckenmiller points to millennial money and west coast tech money as interested in bitcoin as a store of value as a reserve asset he also points out that there is a lot of that and with the greatest generational transfer of wealth in history on the verge to millennials there's going to be more of that but there's a second line that we need to hone in on if the gold bet works the bitcoin bet will probably work better he cites liquidity ease of use etc this is obviously huge jason janowitz from block works group tweeted bitcoin bulls stanley druckenmiller paul tudor jones jack michael saylor abby johnson chamath bill miller novogratz kathy wood and david swenson damn good group of investors if you ask me real vision's raul paul was even more crisp saying the significance of the world's greatest and most respected money manager stan druckenmiller saying just now that he is long bitcoin cannot be overstated that has removed every obstacle for any hedge fund or endowment to invest so basically raul's argument is that this is a social proof type of moment where a lot of people who have been perhaps trying to convince their funds that they should go all in those internal champions now have more clout this is de-risking this move from a professional risk kind of standpoint for money managers along those lines another thing that i noticed was many people sort of having a tip of the iceberg argument where they think that these billionaires that we're seeing announce their bitcoin holdings are actually just the visible part of a much larger trend david nade tweeted out prediction in the next two weeks we will see another two to three prominent investors announce they own bitcoin on cnbc speaking of which somehow druckenmiller wasn't the only big name investor who comes from a very different school of thought to sing bitcoin's praises this week an extremely well-known value investor in bill miller also said that at these prices investors needed to have exposure but now i want to go back to druckenmiller's argument that the bitcoin trade probably works better for bitcoin than it does for gold a few days ago on november 6th a jp morgan analyst report came out saying that greyscale's bitcoin trust is outperforming gold etfs and their bet is that it's driven by family office investors quote as we had highlighted in our previous report of october 23rd the potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable if it competes more intensely with gold as an alternative currency given that the market cap of bitcoin would have to rise 10 times from here to match the total private sector investment in gold via etfs or bars and coins pomp built on this argument in his newsletter this morning with a super provocative piece gold versus bitcoin doesn't end in coexistence here's the key quote this brings me to my last point bitcoin and gold are unlikely to coexist over a long period of time this is how technology disruption occurs the challenger is superior and it eventually ends the legacy player i know that this is a controversial concept but it is very likely that over the coming 10 to 20 years gold's market cap will materially shrink and bitcoins will materially increase this flow of capital will be important to watch whatever one thinks of pomp's argument about bitcoin versus gold it's hard not to see the trend line of 2020 which is an extreme narrative clarification for people in the institutional sectors around bitcoin it started off with paul tudor jones and his great monetary inflation it has now gone through stan druckenmiller these aren't people who make these arguments lightly they are trying to open up space for that conversation sure it's to pump their own bags but that's a pretty valuable thing nonetheless i tend to agree with all those folks on crypto twitter who are arguing right now that there are far more people who are being quiet about their bitcoin holdings than those who are going on cnbc but i also do think that we're likely to see some of those folks get more public about their investment as it becomes safer to do so anyways guys fun one for today i appreciate you listening i hope that you're enjoying the show if you are please keep up your ratings and reviews i really appreciate them you can also find the breakdown on youtube there's a great growing community over there that's watching these shows as videos and i'd love to see you there so until tomorrow guys be safe and take care of each other peace
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