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Let's take a look at soxx. The trend has broken down here. It is currently moving into a triangular convergence pattern. This is the SX trend. The trend hit a wall here, got pushed back, broke, tried to go up, hit the trend again, got pushed back, tried to go up, got pushed back again—it is currently in that state.
So, will it end here, or will it end here and go up like this? We don't know, right? Since there is triangular convergence here, the probability is currently 50-50. But the problem is that if it breaks here, the correction will get a bit deeper. The probability is 50-50 so far. However, there is a lot of supply zone here; there are a lot of dead stocks here.
So, I think it might take some time to break through these dead stocks. Also, good news needs to come out. The biggest good news is... the biggest good news is... the cheapest is the biggest good news. The SMP 500 is currently located right here. There is a Dacom bubble here. During the Dacom bubble in 2000, it went up to about 25 times its value before coming back down.
Back in 2008 during the financial crisis, it hit around 15x leverage and then came down. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it also dropped from around 15x leverage. In 2020, when money was injected and prices surged, the index peaked at around 22x leverage and then dropped back down. After that, it went up excitedly, and the SM 500 is currently at 22x leverage, so it cannot be considered cheap right now.
It certainly cannot be seen as cheap. However, the question is whether a crash is coming. A recession would typically occur for a crash to happen, but there are no signs of one coming. I think it needs to undergo some correction before it can go up further. That is why I am talking about SX right now.
If it goes up further, the leverage will increase even more. Then, honestly, it becomes a bit burdensome for it to just keep rising. If we look at it coolly, should n't there be some period of consolidation? In that sense, of course, it would be nice if it went up immediately from here, but if it tries to absorb this resistance level, it might be difficult.
We just need to watch it for now. Let's see if it converges in a triangle here and pulls down or goes up. It's the Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio. What the Golden Ratio is is where Elliott Wave theory applies. Elliott Waves go in waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, and then A, B, and C. Yes, this is a wave derived from the Golden Ratio.
So, if this Golden Ratio moves in this direction, it becomes like this. Then, if a correction comes—if it goes up by 1.618, or if it goes up by 1.618—then a correction of 1 unit comes. Ah, this is the Golden Ratio Elliott Wave. Now, in the worst-case scenario, a correction comes from here to here. So, it is a situation where a correction could come this summer, or even until June, or even July.
You need to keep that in mind and think, "Ah, if the worst-case scenario happens, this kind of situation could occur." Now, regarding where this fits well— what kind of sheet is this? Bitcoin. If a single wave of Bitcoin goes up by 1.618, it corrects by 1 unit; if it goes up by 1.618, it corrects by 1 unit; if it goes up by 1.618, it corrects by 1 unit.
If it corrects and goes up by 8 units to 1.62, it corrects by 1 unit. By doing this, and looking at the "@" wave pattern all connected, this wave has almost reached the 1.618 line. So, at this point, I thought that Bitcoin was almost finished. That is why I considered that a correction might be coming.
Generally, if you think a correction is coming to some extent, referring to the Golden Ratio helps with predictions. It is surprisingly accurate. Yes, Tesla has n't been performing well lately, right? Let's take a look at the Tesla chart as well. Yes, it seems like it's mostly done. Looking at the short-term trend, it does seem like the correction is mostly complete.
However, if we consider this as a single wave—yes, if it eats up to 1.618—since it corrects by 1 unit, we need to accept that level of correction. Yes, if this is the 1.618 wave, and it corrects by 1 unit, it might take a breather. When looking at the auxiliary indicators on the daily chart, it is not yet clear whether a bottom has been established.
I do n't think it's quite right, do you? Well, for now, it looks like a double bottom is forming. The weekly Stochastic chart has now turned. Since the weekly chart has turned, if it is at 1.618, a correction of about 1 unit could come. So, looking at the weekly chart, Tesla is in a somewhat difficult situation.
Let's take a look at the MACD on the weekly chart. This is the Tesla weekly chart. A death cross has occurred like this. If it is to turn around and go back up from here, it needs to rotate like this with a wave forming. But if the weekly chart turns around at this level, we have to consider it a bit of a correction.
I think we need to wait a little for Tesla. So, looking at Tesla, you can see this kind of wave in the MCD, right? If it goes up like this and then comes down, it can go up again. So, for now, I think a correction is bound to come a little. When looking at the MHD and Stochastic, the "snail" pattern I mentioned earlier might fit in.
If it fits like this and goes like this, yes, if it goes up to 1.618 like this, it might correct by about 1 unit and then go up again. Yes, that is how it will likely be. Since there is a possibility, I think we should wait a bit. Tesla is n't exactly a stock you should sell right now. It is a stock meant for long-term investment; if you hold onto it, it will likely bounce back up when good news comes out.
So, based on technical indicators, I think it is sufficient to just anticipate a slight correction.
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