저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 AI 관련 메가캡 기술주가 새로운 버블을 형성하고 있을 가능성을 경고하며, 쉴러 PE 비율이 1929·일본 80년대 말·2000년 닷컴 버블 등 역대 최악 시기에 높았다고 언급한다. 현재 시장은 실물경제와 괴리되어 있고 소득 불평등과 인구 감소가 장기 성장을 제약한다고 본다. 또한 GDP 중심 성장 지표의 한계를 지적하고 정부의 장기적 역할을 강조한다. 구체적인 단기 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
money Minds hey everyone welcome back today we're going deep deep into the world of financial Bubbles and we've got a fantastic guide for this journey Jeremy Grantham oh yeah he's not just a successful investor he's practically a historian of bubbles decades he's been studying them and predicted a few too accurately spookily accurately sometimes he's calling this the most vulnerable Market ever you know so yeah lots to learn we're going to look at how these bubbles well how they form the psychology behind them all that and why it all matters to you to all of us absolutely because whether you're you know already investing or just starting out understanding this stuff well it'll help you make hopefully smarter decisions but first things first what exactly is a financial bubble okay imagine a house right everyone suddenly wants it desperately but it's not really worth the Crazy Prices they're offering so the price keeps going up up up not because the house itself is better no because people believe they can sell it later for even more that's a bubble in a nutshell speculation hype totally detached from real value like a game of hot potato no one wants to be left holding it when the Music Stops Perfect Analogy and when it bursts as it always does well those who bought in at the peak ouch biggest losses okay makes sense so how can we spot one before it bursts what are the warning signs red flags well Grantham points to a few indicators one is uh this thing called the Schiller PE ratio way to measure how expensive stocks are compared to their earnings historically so like if I'm buying say a lemon a stand I'd want to know it's profits right exactly the Schiller PE ratio it does that for the whole stock market and historically when it's really high uhoh not good times ahead not at all nope it's actually predicted some of the worst economic periods we've had 1929 think about that oh wow the Japanese Market late 80s the tech bubble 2000 even the recent highs yikes so when everyone's shouting This Time It's Different and just throwing money at the market that's when you got to be most careful be afraid be very afraid at least be cautious cuz remember the market it's not all logic emotions play a huge part especially when everyone's euphoric right right so we've got water bubble is some warning signs but why why do we keep falling for this why is this time is different so convincing every time well we're human we're optimistic by Nature we want things to be getting better especially our finances yeah yeah and when everyone else seems to be making money Easy Money fomo kicks in fear of missing out it's hard to resist that pull like that urge to jump in the pool on a hot day even if you don't know how deep it is exactly and in a market bubble that urge it can be powerful makes people impulsive you know not thinking about the risks forgetting to check the depth of the pool ouch yeah can lead to some painful belly flops when that bubble pops okay great image so we've got the anatomy of a bubble the psychology behind it but let's get to what's happening right now all the buzz about AI these Mega cap tech companies is this another one forming another bubble that is e the big question Grandam has some interesting thoughts first off he recognizes ai's power it is a revolution technologically could change so much about how we live he even compares it to like the invention of the car yeah the internet yeah exactly big stuff but yo here's the thing those past revolutions as exciting as they were they came with periods of crazy speculation overinvestment leading to well you guessed it bubbles so history might not repeat but it Rhymes Rhymes yeah and Grantham sees familiar Rhymes popping up in this whole AI frenzy he's not saying AI is bad to be clear but he saying don't get swept up in the hype don't lose sight of the fundamentals so confus the potential of the tech with the frenzy surrounding it exactly that and that's where we'll pick up in part two we'll go deeper into grantham's views on the market today the specific risks he sees sounds fascinating can't wait to unpack that with you in part two welcome back we were talking last time about Jeremy Grantham and his insights on bubbles and well that potential for one forming around AI fascinating stuff but you know kind of unsettling too it is yeah like uh like watching a story storm brewing on the horizon you know it's coming but how bad is it going to be perfect way to put it Grantham is definitely sounding the alarm but he's also you know trying to give us some guidance here on how to navigate these well turbulent times he's particularly worried about this disconnect between the stock market and the actual economy yeah I've been noticing that too we hear all this talk about the market booming but it doesn't really feel like that's trickling down to well most people exactly and Grantham he uses this really striking example to show that he points out that while stock prices they've gone way up over the past few decades wages they've stagnated for lots of folks it's like uh the economy is this train right few luxury cars speeding ahead but the rest of it stuck in the tracks wow yeah powerful image so the wealth it's not being distributed evenly nope and gram he argues this growing inequality it's not just a social problem it's an economic one too when a big chunk of the population they can't afford to participate in the economy it hurts growth for everyone right right like trying to run a marathon with a brained ankle you can hobble along but you're not going to beat your best exactly and this kind of leads us to another big concern of his the potential for a well population bust this one surprised me what's that got to do with the financial markets think about it this way imagine a company trying to sell stuff but there are fewer and fewer customers every year hard to grow right right same idea with a whole economy a shrinking Workforce that means less consumption fewer people driving Innovation and ultimately slower economic growth so it's not just about picking the right stocks it's about understanding these bigger forces that are shaping the world the markets absolutely and Grantham argues that these long-term challenges like you know climate change the inequality we talked about and this potential population bus they're all linked you see and they're going to have a huge impact on how we invest going forward so what does he suggest we D about it is he saying we need to like scrap the whole system start over not exactly he's not anti- capitalist but he's well realistic he sees that a system designed for you know unlimited resources unlimited growth it might need some tweaking especially in a world facing resource constraints environmental problems he thinks we got to rethink our assumptions about growth find more sustainable ways to create Prosperity I'm curious about the role of government here where does that fit in for this is where it gets interesting Grandam he's not afraid to suggest that the government it does have a role to play in tackling these long-term challenges he sees it as a counterbalance you know to the markets focus on the short term the next quarter is profits but wouldn't that you know stifle Innovation limit individual freedom I hear that a lot it's common concern yeah but Grantham he says that's a false Choice he thinks that smart regulations they can actually hlp Innovation by creating a Level Playing Field by encouraging investment in sustainable Tech so not about control more like setting the right conditions for long-term growth sustainable growth exactly and for him this is key to addressing those uh what he calls tragedies of the commons we mentioned before problems like climate change where you know people acting in their own self-interest end up hurting everyone in the long run starting to see how all these pieces fit together now so be mindful of bubbles understand the limitations of the system as it is now and consider that maybe government does have a role to play in getting us on a more sustainable path did I get that right spot on and you know we're going to dive even deeper into some of grantham's more uh controversial thought-provoking ideas in part three so stay tuned for that I'm ready this is all so incredibly insightful welcome back to our final part diving deep into Jeremy grantham's World ready for those controversial ideas you mentioned well grantham's famous for his long-term view you know and uh he doesn't shy away from challenging the usual way of thinking he's been called a Perma bear actually because he's often so cautious about the market so not just a bubble predictor he's thinking bigger picture like the whole system how sustainable it really is exactly and one of his well boldest ideas is this we need to change what we even mean by progress he says this obsession with GDP growth it's misguided because it doesn't account for like the environment or using up natural resources you got it he's saying we're measuring success with the wrong yard stick focused on short-term gains even if it hurts us longterm so we need a new yard stick then he thinks so we need to move Beyond GDP start measuring progress based on stuff like uh environmental health how well people are actually doing you know genuine improvements in our lives it's a big shift in perspective hard to even imagine what they'd look like practically it would mean valuing things that right now the economy just ignores clean air water healthy ecosystems those social connections how strong they are stuff that matters but doesn't have a dollar sign on it right and it did mean actually factoring in the costs of things like pollution climate change using up those resources we talked about so it's like taking a bigger view counting both the good and E the bad a more holistic view yeah and Grant them he believes this is essential if we want a truly sustainable future one that's not just based on endless growth on a planet that's well obviously not endless this is all really thought-provoking but I can already hear some folks saying this is too idealistic it mean changing everything sure that's a valid point and Grant them he gets that these changes they won't be easy he's not naive about that but he says we got to start talking about at NW before it is too late but call to action then a wakeup called to change our priorities start making different choices exactly he believes we do have the power to shape a better future but it takes you know a real shift in how we think willingness to challenge how things are done now powerful message so after this deep dies into Jeremy grantham's world the bubbles those long-term challenges that call for a new kind of progress what's the one thing you want our listeners to walk away with h good question I think the biggest takeaway is this we all have a role to play in creating that better future more sustainable more fair for everyone it's not just up to governments or big companies it's starts with each of us the choices we make how we live how we invest our money even how we just interact act with the world around us great point we can all make a difference and speaking of making a difference if you found this deep dive insightful and you want more ideas like this will be sure to subscribe to our Channel we'll be back soon with another Deep dive into a topic that hopefully you'll find just as important until then keep learning keep questioning and keep diving deep
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