저자: LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중국은 여전히 가치투자자에게 매력적인 시장이며, 금융시장 제도 개혁이 진행되며 장기적으로 기회가 커진다. 중국 시장의 특징: 시장이 아직 발전 중이고 투자자들이 성숙하지 않아 단기매매·높은 회전율 성향이 강하다. 이는 인내심 있는 가치투자자에게 기회를 준다. 금융서비스 산업: 미국 대비 GDP 비중이 낮은 금융서비스 산업이 이제 본격적으로 성장할 단계이며, 정부가 거시정책을 우호적으로 운영하고 해외 금융사에도 문을 열고 있다. 성장 섹터: 주택, 의료, 교육, 도소매, 개인서비스 등 거의 모든 산업이 성장 중이며, 성장주뿐 아니라 저성장·가치주에서도 기회를 찾을 수 있다고 본다. 시장 효율성: 중국 증시는 성장 대비 비효율이 커서 정부 개혁에 따라 점차 효율화되며, 이 전환 자체가 추가적 기회를 제공한다. 제도 개혁: 중국 증시는 IPO가 승인제(approval model)에 기반해 정부가 선별한 기업 위주로 상장되어 실물경제를 충분히 대표하지 못했다. 정부는 등록제(registration model)로 전환을 추진 중이며 아직 초기 단계다. 자금조달 구조: 자금조달의 대부분이 은행(약 80% 이상)에 의존하는데, 장기적으로 채권·주식 등 직접금융 비중이 커질 것이다. 향후 전망: 향후 10년 정도에 걸쳐 금융시장이 성숙하고 기관투자자가 늘어나며 시장 규모가 지금보다 훨씬 커질 것으로 본다. 이는 중국을 제대로 이해하는 투자자에게 유리하다. 리스크: 제도 전환이 초기 단계이고 비효율·정부 개입 등 불확실성이 존재한다는 점이 함의된다.
다듬은 글
so where do you see the unique challenges and opportunities instead of finding value investment opportunities in China well uh the China remains I think one of the best Market uh if you're a valuable investor um in many sense in a sense and the market is still somewhat underdeveloped the market today is not as representative as the real economy the way for example United States is and so there's a lot of the development in that regard uh and the training and the investors are still not as mature and they're still the mentality of of faster trading High turnovers which actually renders some of the companies again going through a faster pace of this building a bus again that usually provides opportunities for those who mature patient investor who truly know what they're doing uh and also as you said the service sector of fat economy when it comes to financial services is still yet to be developed and China was really wet at the stage in the financial services industry actually is about to take off in a big way now for many reasons and it just so happens also the Chinese government is quite Akin uh in in making macroeconomic policies quite conducive for the development of the financial service industry and they began to open up to the global firms as well in a way they haven't ever done that before and so all those Confluence of uh factors really make the market that much more attractive today than it was before yeah can I say something about that Financial Services is probably the fifth and sixth largest service sector the biggest is housing by far the second biggest is Medical Care the third biggest is education and the fourth and fifth biggest are like wholesale and Retail distribution and then personal services and then Financial Services although in the U.S it's a little higher than that what about those sectors in China that sector is also growing right but do you see opportunities in absolutely we do housing we see an opportunity shelter support basically uh virtually every industry are going through robust uh uh glowing stage some more than the others uh and uh even if the industry they're not growing as a fast because you'll find interesting companies values and I don't have to I know for this field uh and so different people tend to focus different aspects of the industries and different aspect of the growth profile so I'm looking value where the high growth companies I'm looking values that moderate both companies some that look value in places that doesn't grow at all in fact they're probably declining and they're able to find even bigger markets so if you are a true uh a good investor in the sense you can find a value of everyone but you probably more uh capable of finding that it was bad in it dynamically growing economy such as China we're still growing at multiple times uh of the maturity economy in the west and there's still enormous amount of inefficiency in this security market so that combination of those two really make it enticing on top of that one closer is a government report I mean government reform will make those inefficiencies gradually be more efficient and so that transition offers even more interesting opportunities so this is this is a good time for Global Investors and certainly important U.S investors as well okay and those terms that as Chinese financial markets are developing do you have certain reforms or other things you'd be interested in seeing implemented do you sort of have a top development that you'd like to see happen in the China financial markets or even in the China economy well in a sense it was already happening so that's what I mean by and the Chinese government and regulator it has to be very keen and develop at a security Market for years and years the Chinese security Market is not very representative of China's economy partially because it really the uh with the IPO rules are based on what they call approval model uh you have to go through lenses of approval layers of approval process in order to be um and listed and so the lineup of this letter are the ones who really proofed by government for whatever reason sometimes often not really Market proven compare with other markets such as the United States that it is based on The Graduate situation based and so as a market driven as a result of the financial Market a security Market here are quite a representative of the true economy and as the Chinese economy moving from a export import driven economy into more of consumer demand economy the entrepreneurial companies that the market driven Dynamics are increasingly play a larger role and therefore this financial Market have to reflect in the changing Dynamics and trying to the Chinese government is determined reform is uh IPO process from one of the approval process model into one that is much like the United States of registration based model and so we are probably excuse early in that process but as that process began to play out we will see the financial Market become a more reflective of the real economy and the other big changes that is happening is that most of the financing are done through the banking sectors and up to the point you know 80 class percent and over time in the financing is best uh to really do through what they call Direct financing uh mostly through Market driven dynamics of fixed income Equity etc etc and and so we see the overall financing model the Chinese economy from one that is more indirect into more correct and so thus fact is the reason for opening up this Financial Service Company a financial service industry bows for domestic players and the global players as we're seeing that Dynamic plays harder for the next decade or so there will be a lot more opportunities and the financial Market will become more mature that will be more institutional players coming into it and and the financial Market science will become much much bigger than what it is today so those are really all bode well for investors which really understand what they're doing basically in China
댓글 0