저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 끝난 게 아니며 연준의 긴축은 불충분해 물가는 다시 오르고, 미국 경제는 부채 문제로 인해 인플레이션 억제를 감당하기 어렵다. 인플레이션 전망: 식료품·휘발유 가격 상승이 계속되며 최근 하락은 일시적 완화일 뿐이다. 원자재 가격이 바닥을 찍으면 신고점을 향해 다시 오를 것이다. 연준 정책 평가: 기준금리가 2%까지 물가를 되돌릴 만큼 충분히 인상되지 않았고, 4.6% 수준은 아무것도 아니다. 연준은 금리를 두 배 혹은 세 배까지 올려야 한다는 입장이다. 재정 정책: 정부는 긴축 재정이 아니라 적자 지출을 늘리고 있어 인플레이션에 연료를 붓는 셈이다. 바이든의 적자 축소 주장은 거짓이다. 노동시장: 임금이 물가 상승을 따라가지 못해 실질임금이 감소하고 있으므로 강한 노동시장이 아니라 약한 노동시장이다. 가계부채: 2022년 4분기 가계부채가 사상 최고인 16.9조 달러를 기록했고 신용카드 부채는 전년 대비 15.2% 증가해 약 1조 달러에 근접했다. 스티뮬러스 자금을 소진한 뒤 신용카드로 생활비를 메우는 상황이다. 통화 정책 원인: 연준의 과도한 화폐 발행이 인플레이션의 주된 원인이며 달러 가치를 떨어뜨린다. 신용 여건: 금리를 올려도 신용은 여전히 저렴하고 풍부하다. 지급준비율 인상 등으로 대출을 더 조여야 한다. 역사적 비교: 1970년대와 1980년대 볼커 시기처럼 인플레이션을 잡는 데 6년이 걸렸고, 금리를 오래 높게 유지해야 했다. 현재 긴축은 이제 막 시작된 단계다. 경제 구조 리스크: 미국 국가부채는 1980년 1조 달러 미만에서 현재 약 32조 달러로 늘었다. 경제는 거품이며 인플레이션 파이팅 자체가 경제를 죽이고 2008년보다 심각한 금융위기를 낳을 수 있다. 따라서 연준은 인플레이션을 잡지 못할 것이다. 결론적 주장: 문제의 핵심은 미국의 부채이며, 소비자 부채가 그 지표다.
다듬은 글
so the people who are thinking that we've seen the worst of inflation are wrong all we've seen is a small down payment on what's coming inflation at the grocery store and the gas pump it seems to be affecting Americans at every turn today Peter Schiff a renowned investor and financial commentator gives his Insight on inflation his views are quite alarming and should cause us to take note of the risks we face as consumers and investors we're going to see much higher prices in the months and years ahead the FED has barely made any progress in the war against inflation in fact it may have even gone backwards yes we've had some temporary relief due to the initial pullback in commodity prices but once commodity prices bottom out they're going to be headed for new highs and we're going to see just how much ground we've actually lost because the FED hasn't even come close to raising interest rates high enough to restore inflation to two percent nor have we gotten the required cooperation from the U.S government because instead of reducing government spending and adopting a contractionary fiscal policy to help bring down inflation deficit spending is rising despite Biden's lies to the contrary that he is reducing deficits deficits are increasing and that is an expansionary fiscal policy that is adding fuel to the inflation fire inflation has had serious impacts on Americans the gradual increase in prices for goods and services has eroded purchasing power more and more Americans are finding it difficult to make ends meet we don't have a strong labor market we have a weak labor market if you're in a labor market where your wages are not keeping Pace with inflation that has to be characterized as a weak labor market how can anybody say a labor market is strong when workers can't demand that their pay go up equal to inflation in fact if it really was a strong labor market you would expect that workers have the upper hand and they could get real wage increases they could force their employers to give them a raise that actually exceeds the cost of living that would be a strong labor market but if workers have no choice but to accept real pay cuts because the only raise they can get doesn't even come close to the increase in the cost of living that is a weak labor market and that's what we have we got data from the Federal Reserve that shows that in the fourth quarter of 2022 household debt hit a new all-time record high of 16.9 trillion dollars households took on another 394 billion of debt during the quarter that's a 2.4 increase even worse credit card debt Rose 6.6 to 986 billion during the quarter that is the fastest quarterly growth in credit card debt ever since the Federal Reserve started measuring it back in 1999 and year over year credit card debt soared by 15.2 percent that's despite the fact that Americans were flush with stimulus money they blew through their stimulus and they had to run up their credit card balances to afford to pay the higher prices that were resulting from inflation think about that we almost have a trillion dollars in credit card debt Peter Schiff believes that the U.S federal reserve's practice of printing too much money is the primary cause of inflation leading to higher prices and a decrease in the value of the US dollar Schiff warns that these effects can have disastrous long-term consequences for the economy and investors credit is still cheap despite these rate hikes credit is still plentiful and the FED needs to do something to tighten it up by raising interest rates far more substantially Maybe by raising the reserve requirements requiring Banks to keep more of their deposits on reserve so there's less available to loan out to Consumers to buy things using credit that's what the FED would need to be doing if it was truly serious about fighting inflation but it's not serious because it knows if it got serious on fighting inflation it would crash the economy in fact it would probably cause a financial crisis that's why it's not serious but it can never admit that so it has to pretend that it's trying to fight inflation even though it's still pursuing policies that are fueling the fire shift's perspective on inflation has been widely discussed in the media and many experts share his concerns he warns that the fed's policies are leading us into an inflationary spiral that will be difficult to stop I want to switch gears a little bit now and put into some historical perspective just how difficult it's going to be to put the inflation Genie back in the bottle because everybody seems to have lost track of what's happened in the past they think it's going to be very easy for the FED to get inflation back down to two percent in fact they think that a Fed funds rate of about five percent is all that needs to happen and in fact after inflation goes right back down to two percent everybody assumes that the FED could just lower interest rates that they don't have to stay at five percent that as soon as the FED achieves its objective of returning inflation to two percent that it doesn't have to leave interest rate all the way up at five percent that it can move them down but if you look back at the 1970s experience it shows that putting the inflation Genie back in the bottle is a lot more difficult than people believe that's why we actually have the expression that you Don don't let the inflation Genie out of the bottle if it really was so simple to put the inflation Genie back in the bottle we wouldn't have that expression the reason we have it is because it's difficult and that's exactly what the 1970s experience proved now I've already mentioned that it took Paul volcker six years to get the inflation rate back down to two percent and then the FED didn't even achieve that feat again for another 12 years Powell seems to believe that he could bring inflation back down to two percent and keep it there indefinitely well what did Paul volcker have to do with interest rates to get inflation backed down to two percent after fighting it for six years remember Powell has only been fighting inflation for one year inflation poses a major risk to all of us financially it can make it harder to save and invest our money and has led to significant increases of cost of living easy so it's pretty clear if you look at how high interest rates had to rise and how long they had to stay there during the 1980s to eventually bring inflation back down to two percent we've barely started a 4.6 fed funds rate is nothing we need to see if funds rate double or triple where we are right now the problem is the economy can't handle it the way it was able to handle it back then because we didn't have anywhere near the debt the national debt didn't even hit a trillion until 1980 it's close to 32 trillion now so the economy can't withstand an inflation fight the fight itself would kill the economy because it's a phony economy it's a bubble and it would produce a worse financial crisis than the one that we had in 2008 which is why the FED is not going to be able to succeed in fighting inflation it's impossible shift suggests that the problem is American debt and one of the indicators of that problem is Consumer Debt do you think he has it right what have you done to beat inflation join the conversation in the comments below and tell us how you've been dealing with inflation thank you so much for watching if you're looking for more content on the economy finance and inflation consider subscribing and hit the notification Bell for more updates on all our latest content thank you
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