저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 불확실성 속에서도 확신(conviction)을 갖고 주식을 전액 투자하는 것이 핵심이며, 좋은 종목을 고르는 것이 투자의 본질이다. 투자 철학: 불확실성은 항상 존재하며, 시장이 100% 확신에 찰 때는 대개 사이클 고점이다. 그래서 두려움은 늘 있고, 중요한 것은 다른 종목보다 더 잘할 주식을 찾고 상대적으로 두려움이 적은 주식을 고르는 것이다. 확신의 형성: 기업을 최소 2~4년, 경우에 따라 5년 이상 추적한 누적 지식이 한 번에 크게 매수할 확신을 준다. 확신이 있으면 배팅 규모를 키우는 것이 원칙이다. 포트폴리오 운용: 과거 30년간 거의 100% 투자 상태를 유지했다. 2020년 3~4월에도 포트폴리오의 약 5%(약 50억 원 규모)만 현금으로 보유했다. 전액 투자 이유: 가격 하락 후 후회는 감수할 수 있지만, 주가가 오른 뒤 완전 투자하지 못한 후회는 견딜 수 없다고 설명했다. 코로나19로 불확실성이 커져도 배팅을 60~70% 수준으로 줄이지 않는다고 밝혔다. 매수 후 하락에 대한 태도: 매수 직후 주가가 떨어지는 경험이 있으며, 그럴수록 더 사는 경향이 있다고 언급했다. 이에 대해 스스로 개선하지 못했다고 인정했다. 언급 종목: 구체적 종목명 언급은 확인되지 않음. 전반적으로 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 전망은 없음. 리스크: 코로나19 등 불확실성 속 과도한 전액 투자와 하락 시 추가 매수 경향이 위험 요소로 드러남. 출연자 전망: 시장 고점 시점에서는 확신이 커지며, 불확실성은 상시 존재한다는 장기적 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
in these times of uncertainty how do you get the conviction to put big money too so frankly speaking it doesn't bother me i'm not worried about those uncertainties the idea is to find shares which would do better than others investing is more of an art than science the gifted artist vijay kedia has picked more than 500 burgers so far in his celebrated investing career picking hundred baggers is not a small thing because i am thrilled and proud about myself just by picking three five baggers and one missed the debugger in my short investing career and how do you think you can achieve it there might be many ways to do that but vijay katya says that the secret sauce is conviction the conviction that the business will do better than its peers and gain market share consistently over the years and more importantly one should have that fearless attitude to ignore the day-to-day fluctuations in the stockpiles let's listen to him how he gets that conviction to invest large sum of money i just want to understand from you that people or large investors like you make big money when you bet on something with conviction right conviction you bet maybe 2x the amount that you would bet in a low conviction stock for example right i'm just loosely using the term yeah in these times of uncertainty how do you get the conviction to put big money to work or is it that right now you're not putting very large money to work you are buying but you're buying how are you doing i'll tell you there is one thing i have realized and experience in this market that there is always uncertain uncertainties right gravity could be or degree of uncertainties could be large or small or something but when you are absolutely hundred percent sure in the market so usually it happens when you are at the peak of the cycle otherwise there is always fear in this market so frankly speaking it doesn't bother me i'm not worried about those uncertainties the idea is to find shares which would do better than others right where you have less fear than in the field or then in the sector where there are more fear this is what our job is so accordingly i am planning my investment vijay kedia is known to have 100 invested for the past 30 years of his investing career however shockingly in march and april of 2020 he had cash in hand somewhere around five percent of his portfolio that should be around 50 crores the main reason he gives for staying 100 invested is regret he says i am ok to regret when the price falls after investing but i can't bear the regret when it goes up without me completely invested don't think this statement sounds like a former because vijaycadia before he could invest in any stock he follows the company for at least two to four years and in many cases more than five years in our case we rarely or never do that and two to four years of accumulated knowledge about a company gives him enough conviction to buy the stock in one go because the degree of uncertainty may be high because of covet 19 that you are not betting 100 you might be betting maybe 60 or 70 percent of what you usually would do i don't do i haven't learned that kind of thing i have learned one thing yeah i have learned one thing karnatakura give your hundred percent or don't give your uh one percent also even 99 is one percent only you know it is like love you loved and you love hundred percent that's why you don't know so somehow i haven't learned uh that thing that like honestly it just came to me right now that when we were doing the first alpha moguls that you at times are happy if after you buy something it falls down afternoon that whenever you buy things fall down yeah right yeah and then you tend to buy more so therefore my question that in the current times when uh because of your track record because of the fact that there is covid are you therefore buying maybe for starting off are you buying maybe 15 20 25 or are you kind of buying a lot more no i will tell you i haven't uh improved myself on that subject okay because yeah why why i will tell you because what for your viewers why what happens like like suppose if i buy something and as i said that whenever i buy after that market falls once okay so suppose your market does not work you see there are two kind of things i buy and stock and the share price falls okay and if i buy or if i buy less and market does not fall or the stock price does not fall and it goes up so that pain would be you know uh you know more to me
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