저자: 미상 · 외국인
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현금은 나쁜 투자이며 좋은 사업을 보유하는 편이 낫다는 주장. 달러 가치 하락에 대한 헤지로는 모든 자산이 해당되지만 금은 실물 자산으로서 생산성이 없다고 평가. 금 전체(약 67피트 정육면체, 현재 시세 약 7조 달러)와 미국 농지 전체(약 2.5조 달러), 엑슨모빌 약 7개 가치의 비교를 예로 듦. 투자의 핵심은 기업 가치를 먼저 평가하고 주가는 나중에 보는 것이며, 이해 가능한 기업에만 판단을 내리면 된다는 주장. 페트로차이나를 가치 대비 저평가로 판단해 매수했던 사례를 언급. 마이크로소프트 빌 게이츠와의 대화를 인용하며 컴퓨터를 이해하지 못하는 분야는 피하면 된다고 설명. 아마존과 제프 베이조스의 성과를 인정하지만 이를 예측할 수는 없었다고 언급. 뱅크오브아메리카와 코카콜라에 대한 의견을 밝힘. 코카콜라는 하루 약 18억 개 판매되는 제품 기준으로 1센트 인상 시 연간 약 65억 달러 추가 수익이 발생한다는 계산을 제시. 자신의 가장 좋은 투자 방식은 몇 개의 사업을 깊이 이해하는 것이라고 결론. 자기 계발 투자(대화·의사소통 능력)를 가장 가치 있는 투자로 강조.
다듬은 글
not only speaking investing in yourself is the best thing you can do anything that improves your own talents but nobody can take it away from me they can run up huge deficits and the dollar can become worth far less you can have all kinds of things happen but if you've got talents yourself and you've maximized your talent you've got a terrific asset and that doesn't mean everybody should go to college but it it doesn't mean that any way you find to improve communication skills are enormously important I mean I took the Dale Carnegie course that I paid $100 for and it was worth a college degree well cash is always a bad investment people said cash is king a year ago I mean that's crazy I mean cash wasn't producing anything and it was sure to go down in value over time other than you always want to be sure you have enough I mean and cash will always have enough cash around but anytime we have surplus cash around I'm unhappy I mean I would much rather have good businesses in cash and and we found a chance in the last year they're about to deploy we came in with something over 40 billion a campaign we've got about 20 billion now and we've had some earnings so we would put a lot of cash to work and I like that no I'd much rather own a good business than have cash and it is a hedge against the dollar well you can say all assets are a hedge against a dollar I mean good that all you know is that the dollar is going to be worth less 10 20 30 years from now I say worth less not every currency that I can think of the question is how much it depreciates in value the real test of whether you would like it as an investment is whether you would be happy if it never got quoted again and just in terms of what the asset did for you but that doesn't I would say this about gold if you took all the gold in the world it would it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side so if you took all the gold in the world we could have a cube you went down there 67 feet 67 feet high and that would be the whole thing now for that same cube of gold it would be worth at today's market prices about seven trillion dollars that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States so you have a choice of owning a third of all the stocks in the United States or you gonna have a choice of owning a little block of gold which can't do anything but kind of shine there and make you feel like my desert Croesus or something of the sort now for seven trillion dollars there are roughly a billion farm acres of farmland in the United States they're valued at about two and a half trillion dollars it's about half the continental United States this farmland you could have all the farmland in the United States you could have about seven Exxon Mobil's and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money and if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day font fondling it occasionally you know and then saying you know do something for me that says I don't do anything I just stand here look pretty and and the alternative to that was to have all the farmland in the country everything cotton corn soybeans seven Exxon Mobil's just think of that add a trillion dollars of walking-around money I you know maybe call me crazy did it come to your attention how do you find a stuff like PetroChina I sit there in my office and I read an annual report which fortunately was in English and it described a very good company and told about the oil reserves what about refining talk about the chemicals everything else and I sat there and read it and I thought to myself this company is worth about a hundred billion now I didn't look at the price first I look at the business first and try and figure out what it's worth because if I look at the price first I'll get influenced by that so I look at that I look at the company first I try to value it then I look at the price and the price is way less than what I've just valued at that I'm gonna buy it important thing is to decide is to be able to define which one's you come to an intelligent decision on and which ones are beyond your capacity to evaluate you don't have to be right about thousands and thousands of thousands of competition you only have to be right about a company a couple I met Bill Gates on July 5th 1991 we arrived Seattle and Bill said you've got to have a computer and I said why and he said well he said you can do your income tax on it I said I don't have any income Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend yeah he said well you can keep track of your portfolio I said I only have one stock I said I did I mean he says it's gonna change everything and I said well will it change whether people chew gum and he said well probably not and I said well we'll change what kind of gum they'd show I said well then I'll stick to chewing gum and you study computers how bad I don't have to understand all kinds of but there's all kinds of business I don't understand but there's thousands of opportunities there I don't worry too much about the things I don't understand if you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on if you can spot on Amazon for example I mean it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done and I tip my hat to me he's a wonderful business man he's a good guy too but could I have anticipated that he would be the success and ten others wouldn't be I'm not good enough to do that but I don't fortunately I don't have to you know I don't have to form an opinion on on Amazon and I did did form an opinion on the Bank of America and a form of opinion on coca-cola I mean coca-cola has been around since 1886 there's one point eight billion one point eight billion eight ounce servings of coca-cola products sold every day now if you take one penny and get one penny extra that's 18 million dollars a day and 18 million times 365 is seven billion three less 730 billion or there's six billion five hundred and seventy million dollars so annually six billion five hundred seventy million dollars from one penny do you think coca-cola is worth a penny more than you know Joe's Cola I think so so you know and I've got about 127 years of history they would indicate it so those are the kind of decisions I like to make and you may have an entirely different field of expertise then I would have probably much more up to date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing about and you can get very rich if you just understand a few of them and understand their future
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