저자: JonathanDuran · 외국인
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테슬라 공매도 세력이 많아 머스크의 '공매도 대학살' 트윗이 숏스퀴즈 가능성을 시사하며, 진행자는 이를 근거로 테슬라 매수 기회라고 주장한다. 머스크 트윗 배경: 2018년 5월 4일 머스크가 '단기간 내 공매도 대학살(short burn of the century)'과 화염방사기 출시 예고를 트윗했고, 공매도자에게 조용히 퇴장하라고 경고했다. 숏스퀴즈 원리: 공매도 포지션이 많은 종목에 호재가 나오면 숏 커버링(환매수)이 주가를 밀어 올리고, 이것이 다시 추가 커버링을 부르는 자기실현적 순환이 발생한다고 설명한다. 2012년 사례 회상: 2012년 머스크가 '공매도 세력에게 쓰나미 같은 고통이 온다'고 했을 때 진행자가 매수를 시작했고, 이후 주가가 크게 올랐다고 언급한다. 이번 '대학살' 발언 해석: 프레드 램퍼트 질문에 머스크가 '차원이 다른 수준'이라고 답한 점을 근거로, 큰 상승 여력이 있을 수 있다고 본다. 진행자의 추측 시나리오: 주당 5,000대 생산 달성, 중국 정부와의 기가와트급 에너지/배터리 설치 협력, 대형 자본의 자금 지원 등 여러 가설을 제시하나 모두 추측이라고 명시한다. 리스크 및 결론: 머스크 발언의 구체적 수치는 불명확하며, 진행자 본인도 추측임을 인정한다. 결론적으로 테슬라를 장기 보유할 기회로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
guys on Friday May 4th Elon Musk basically wrapped up a present stuck a bow on it and shipped it to all of us on Twitter I have not seen in the last six years a better opportunity to buy and hold Tesla stock than right now I'll tell you all about what musk said coming up my name is Jonathan Duran let's talk Tesla okay before we dive right in it's important to understand that Tesla is the most shorted stock of any company in the u.s.
that means there are more people betting against the company betting that the stock will come down in price than any other company with that in mind take a look at what Elon tweeted on Friday he said oh and a short burn of the century coming soon flamethrowers should arrive just in time then he went on to say looks like sooner than expected the sheer magnitude of short carnage will be unreal if you're short I suggest tiptoeing quietly to the exit now when musk is talking about shorts getting burned or their being short carnage what he's actually referring to is what's often called s short squeeze and a short squeeze can occur in a company like Tesla where you have a lot of people betting against the company at the same time imagine that there were to be a good news announcement something that sent the stock upward the people who are betting against the company have to do something called cover or buy back their shares because if they don't they can lose a lot of money so imagine some shorts start to buy back their shares well guess what that forces the stock upward even more and it's somewhat of a self-fulfilling cycle because as the stock comes up more and more people who have shorts are going to buy their shares back doing what's called a short squeeze and this brings me very much back to memories I have from 2012 when something very similar happened take a look in fact I think the short position may be as high as as one can actually go out I think that's they're literally hit the ceiling on the short positions the shorts are are in it to the hill and you believe they are a hundred percent wrong III think it's very unwise to be shorting Tesla I mean it's just very unwise I think there is there's a tsunami of hurt coming foolish before the short those holding a short short position it's gonna be very very unpleasant I advise people to exit there's time now the reason all this matters take a look at this chart in 2012 that's when I started to buy shares of the company for the first time indicated by the green dots by September the blue dot that is where musk announced that a tsunami of hurt was coming for the short sellers look what happened in the year that followed yeah okay you're probably wondering what is a tsunami have hurt from 2012 have to do with the short burn of the century in 2018 we'll take a look at what musk responds to Fred Lampert of the electric block fred asks is a short burn of the century as bad as a tsunami of hurt Elon Musk responds it will be next level these numbers are really big now we have no idea what musk is referring to with these really big numbers but in any case it's really exciting because if this is anything like what we already saw in 2012 the stock could have massive upside now I thought it would be a lot of fun to speculate a little bit and guess at what it could be so on that note I got my trusty aluminum foil and I've crafted myself a Tesla speculation cap and if you'd like to you can do one too now I'm gonna go ahead and put this on here just like so all right very good this is also good for conspiracy theories and mind-reading we're gonna do a little bit of that okay how's that look good now here's what I'm thinking it could be something to do with production they're talking about five thousand cars per week what if they're actually starting to get there you know they've made great strides but what if some recent revelation the factory has shot those numbers up it could be that would be huge for the company in terms of profitability and shutting down the short case today also in China we have heard recently just as early as recent as the earnings call that they're talking about building a factory we also heard that he's talking about a gigawatt level energy installation what if they've collaborated with the Chinese government now this is perfect oh man this sounds great now now we're really looking crazy okay so in this collaboration well what if they have an arrangement where they're gonna build a factory maybe there's some type of energy agreement energy contract where they're gonna come in and build the world's largest battery installation could be gigawatt level battery installation we don't know that would be massive and the numbers could be huge we could be talking about hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars of revenue anything is possible and finally what if it has to do with like funding what if you know a lot of times the company gets these these short-term that Tesla's not going to be able to meet its short-term obligations or they might go bankrupt or something well what if some company with a big wallet just comes in and has agreed to back them you know this kind of already happened with $0.10 in the past well what if it happens again on a large scale that would immediately shut down people's concerns that they won't be able to meet their short-term obligations and then they'll be able to just build cars and it'll be great so anything's possible I'd love to hear what you think about this so please again leave your comments about what you think those big numbers might be in the comment section with that I'm gonna take this off and I had a lot of fun making this video I hope you enjoyed it I hope you'll subscribe to my channel again my name is jonathan duran and thank you for watching you
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