저자: TheTradingAnalyst · 외국인
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결론: 전반적으로 애플·페이스북·구글·넷플릭스는 단기 반등 확인 전제로 상승 가능성을 보고, 아마존·프라이스라인은 중장기 하락 쪽으로 보는 분석. 애플: 실적 갭업 후 신고가 돌파, 거래량 동반 장대양봉으로 강세. 160~180 지지 확인 후 단기 반등 매매 관점 제시. 이전 풋옵션은 소폭 손실. 페이스북: 갭다운 후 강한 반등, 전날 고점 상회 장악형 양봉. 169~170 돌파 및 다음날 추가 상승이 확인되면 상승 돌파 기대. 오늘 저점 이탈 시 하락 전환 신호. 아마존: 2016년 초부터 이어진 추세선 이탈 여부 점검, 거래량 동반 하락 이력 강조. 단기적으로 960 돌파 시 반등 가능하나 전반적으로는 하락 전망. 990~1012 구간 반등 시 숏 진입 후보. 구글: 지지선에서 갭 하락 후 반등, 장악형 양봉. 약 943 돌파 및 오늘 고점 유지 시 상승 기대. 넷플릭스: 지지선 이탈 후 큰 반등, 전날 고점 상회 장악형 양봉. 오늘 고점 유지 시 추가 상승 가능. 위쪽 갭 메움(약 175.7 부근) 가능성 언급. 테슬라: 전날 고점을 1센트 차이로 상회해 장악형 양봉이나 질이 떨어지는 반등으로 평가. 355~360 저항, 하락 추세 삼각수렴 내 횡보. 어느 방향이든 이탈 방향 따라 대응 필요. 프라이스라인: 갭다운 후 전날 고점 2달러 상회 장악형 양봉. 1854가 단기 목표. 실적 갭하락과 추세선 이탈로 중장기 하락 전망 유지. 최적 숏 리스크 대비 수익 구간은 1908 부근, 1919 상향 돌파 시 손절 기준, 50일선 상회 시 위험 신호. 리스크: 모든 단기 시나리오는 다음날 추가 확인(돌파 유지) 전제. 확인 실패 시 반대 방향 전환 가능.
다듬은 글
analysis at pple and I want to point out a couple things on Apple going back to this candle right here this was a gap up on earnings two new all-time highs very bullish you can see we just consolidated a little bit one day and then pretty much have been trading sideways and then a nice little uptrend action here today we broke over a key level of resistance and we did so with a little bit of the volume pop so well over the average volume right here today as we break out to new all-time highs very bullish you can see we hit it there a couple days there yesterday we hit it and then today nice action bullish engulfing candle new all-time highs volume definitely looks bullish now we have support down here at about 160 180 so if your short-term trader and look for bounces against that level very nice action for Apple the next one want to point out we gapped below this support level right here is the only one that has we have a really tight range right here you get this gap below and it ends up breaking down right there okay and that's actually what we were looking for today and we actually took a loss on next week's put options right here is a small loss but a loss indeed we were looking for that breakdown didn't get it so we had that big reversal right here and closed over the previous day's high right yep and closed over the previous day's high to mean this is some one of not a true false breakdown but definitely a failed attempt at breaking down and to me this is somewhat bullish especially considering you know Facebook is in a major uptrend here you can see that and this is looking more like a bull flag which I have mentioned in my previous videos but what I want to see is confirmation of this day okay I want to see confirmation and I want to see follow-through tomorrow all right follow-through and I want to sustain over today's highs and if we break you know 169 let's call 169 90 let's just call it 170 just for a length even number so if we hit 170 tomorrow to me that's going to be nice confirmation that we can see a nice breakout higher on Facebook if we don't get that confirmation and we'll break today's lows so today's loaves would be that signal that we are gonna had lower on Facebook because today was a big bounce and you want to see it continue after a day like today the next one I take a look at is Amazon and Amazon very similar action to Facebook you can clearly see we've got this support here bounce they're here right they're here here and you can see we flirt with breaking below it right here and today we broke back above it all right broke back above it and again we want to see conformation so a break over about 960 is what I'd be looking for tomorrow for confirmation if we get that then we can hire in the short term now overall if you watch the previous videos on Amazon you know that overall I do think that Amazon is going to add lower so if we do get a pop up anywhere from 990 to 1012 I think is going to be a good potential short because of the previous analysis I've done on it just to cover it briefly you know we've got heavy volume here selling volume there selling volume there and then you can see selling volume right here on this red day you can see a lot of volume so we're seeing a lot of volume come out of the stock you can see this trend line was broken as well it started in the beginning of 2016 several hits there sub relates there so short term I do think that we can get a nice pop out of it if we get a break over 960 but just remember overall I do think it's going to head lower so if it does head lower to me that's a nice short entry next more on the take a look at is Google and Google was a really nice one because it bounced I'm sorry an open right at this support level and when you are looking for a break down you want to look for gaps below the support it usually needs two nice moves but we gapped right at support you can see we bounce here there here here and here so big level here and this one had a bullish engulfing candle here again I think we can add higher the price I'd be looking to break is about 943 approximately just really wanted to sustain over today's highs if we can sustain over today as high as if we get a nice pop whoops I'm sorry trick Netflix is the next one we're going to take a look at and again this is similar look to Facebook and what I mean by that is you can see it gapped below this support so we had the support look how many times it's bounced off the support gap gap gap I'm sorry bounce bounce bounce and then today we gapped below that support and ended up bouncing big and ended up let's see do we close over yesterday's high 168 67 yep and we ended up closing over the previous day's high with a bullish engulfing candle so again if we sustain higher over today's highs tomorrow again that's what we need to confirm that this is a real bounce it doesn't confirm this goes for all the stops that have covered in this video today again if we break over that high then I think we'd get a nice bounce on Netflix we've got a gap up here to fill all right got a gap up there to fill we've also got a little gap right here that may want to fill as well that gap right there is about 175 70 and it's from that close of this candle right here and then there's the close of that cable for that gap for Netflix next we're going to take a look at is Tesla and to meet Tesla didn't quite get as good of a bounce as the other ones that we covered so far we didn't end up closing over the previous day's high as you can see right there so previous day's high 347 35 oh we did buy one cent by one cent we did okay so correction we did end up having a bullish engulfing day but to me this is sort of a sloppier again we can get a bounce but to me of all of the ones that I covered here don't think it's as good of a play as far as the short-term level so what you want to focus on is these main levels here we're in a little mini triangle start it up here from these highs you see we're making lower highs lower highs really respecting that angle so we've gotten resistance up here right around 355 to 360 is going to be that resistance and then we've got this lower end of the channel I'm sorry triangle you see it bounce here there there right there here almost hit it right here so got a nice squeeze here you can look for either break to the upside or a break to the downside whichever will and ends up breaking that's the way that you can play it but right now or just see a lot of chop while we're in this range but that chop is good because it's trading back and forth and a really tight range and that's going to make for a nice move whichever way it heads so you want that contraction and that contraction is building up energy for the next move next we're going to cover is Priceline Priceline another gap below support and then a closed over let's see we closed over the previous day's high high yesterday 1805 yup we closed over by two bucks so another bullish engulfing candle on some pretty okay volume right there you can clearly see it's about the average lately but you know compared to previous volume it's definitely a little bit more than that so if we sustain over the highs of today tomorrow then we can see a nice bounce to the upside the first resistance I'm seeing is right around here of 1853 based off of the support that we saw from these candles and then the higher that candle right there so that do that's going to be the near-term target if we sustained over the highs here and also this is another one that I do think is going to add lower overall and based off of this trend line break see right there there there there's a bounce and then here we gapped under it on earnings on huge volume you can see your selling volume this day the following day saw a little bit of volume selling on this day right here so we broke that trend line with some pretty heavy volume and headed lower since you know if you get a drop down on earnings on a very bullish stock you know kind of like we did over here and so you didn't really drop and then we bounced that market the near-term alone and you know bouncing huge off of that so what you want to look for is a sustained move lower to see okay I know it's sold off but is it going to continue and I do think that this kind of validated that theory that overall I think that price line is going to head lower but it doesn't mean we can't get a short-term pop into at least 1854 that's just my near-term target the best risk versus reward short in my opinion is up here near 1908 which is right where we gapped down to poverty so if we do head higher that's a great shorting opportunity low risk if we break higher than that you know if we break the high of this day the high of that day 1919 to me that's a good stop out point if we break that high you know I only want to be short if we're below this high for break over that high not only we're going to be back over into the gap which likely means we're going to fill this gap up here but also we'd be over the 50-day moving average which is that red line right there something and we'll take some profitable trades based on of this free analysis them
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