저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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결론: 뮤거는 개별 자산의 단기 가격 방향을 예측하지 않고, 소수 기회에 집중하는 장기 투자와 비용 절감·단순한 생활을 강조한다. 분산투자와 집중투자: 분산은 모르는 사람에게 의미 있을 뿐이며, 아는 것에만 투자해 소수 기회를 잡는 것이 핵심이라고 주장한다. 증권사의 과도한 분산 권유는 비판한다. 모차르트 일화: 재능이 있어도 과소비와 질투·원망이 불행과 조기 사망을 부른다는 교훈을 제시한다. 중국 투자: 중국의 훌륭한 기업들이 미국 기업보다 싸다고 보며, 중국 시장에 투자하는 사람이 늘 것이라고 언급한다. 구체적 가격 목표는 없다. 장기 수익률 전망: 장기 복리에 대해 기대치를 낮추라고 조언한다. 대공황 이후 지수 수익률 약 10%(명목), 실질 약 7% 수준이었으나 현재 시작 시점에서는 실질 2~3% 가능성도 있다고 언급한다. 자사주 매입: 주가가 높아진 시점의 자사주 매입은 대체로 나쁜 아이디어일 수 있다고 본다. 정치권의 자사주 규제에 대해서는 기업에 대한 정치적 간섭에 신중한 입장이다. 과거 실수: 백화점, 섬유, 상품권 회사 등 실패한 사업에서 빠져나와 더 나은 사업으로 옮겨간 경험을 공유한다. 리스크: 장기 수익률 둔화 가능성과 정치적 규제 리스크를 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 비트코인 등 지정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
friends i had a grandfather who was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a pioneer and he came out to iowa with no money but youth and health and took it away from the indians he fought in the black white he was a captain in the black blackhawk wars and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town on the bank and uh and highly regarded and a huge family and a very happy life and and he had the attitude having come out to iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and having stayed there until that blacktops well created the modern rich civilization and some of the best land in the world his attitude was that in a favored life like his when you were located in the right place you just got a few opportunities if you lived to be above 90.
and the trick and coming out well was seizing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren around him all summer and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but i'm not my mother's natural imitator and i knew grandparent was right and so i always knew from the very first i was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have at a big investment counseling thing then if they study a million things they can know a million things and of course the result is almost nobody can outperform an index whereas i sit here with my daily journal stock my berkshire hathaway stock my holdings of lilu's asian fund my costco stock and of course i'm outperforming everybody i'm 95 years old i apparently never have a transaction and the answer is i'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them the the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing and you want the standard result and not be embarrassed well of course you can widely diversify nobody's entitled a lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that two and two equals four and but the investment professionals think they're helping you by arranging a diversification an idiot could diversify a portfolio and or a computer for that matter and and but the whole trick of the game is to have have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough and what tells you you care you own three securities and jp morgan chase owns a hundred you know it's what's wrong with owning a few securities warren always says if you lived in a growing town and you owned stock and three of the best enterprises in the town isn't that diversified enough the answer is of course it is they're all wonderful places and that is too because you like stories here's an apocryphal story that is very instructive a young man comes to visit mozart and he says mozart he says i want to write symphonies and mozart says how old are you and man psalm 23.
mozart says you're too young to write symphonies he says but mozart he says you were writing symphonies when you were 10 years old mozart says yes but i wasn't asking other people how to do it now there's another mozart story here's the greatest musical talent maybe that ever lived and what was his life like well he was bitterly unhappy and he died young that's the life of mozart what the hell did mozart do to screw it up to make himself well he did two things that are guaranteed to create a lot of misery he overspent his income scrupulously that's number one that is really stupid and the other thing was he was full of jealousies and resentments if you'll spend over spend your income and be full of jealousy and resentments you can have a lousy unhappy life and die young all you've got to do is learn from mozart you can also learn from that young man who was asking mozart how to write symphony the truth of the matter is that not everybody can learn everything some people are way to hell better and of course no matter how hard you try they're always some guy that achieves more some guy or gal and they might answer so what do it does any of us need to be the very top of the whole world it's ridiculous and another thing that people do like bear guard is amazing is they build these enormous mausoleums i think they figure they want people to walk by that mausoleum and say gosh i wish i were in there anyway you can see we've had some fun as we go along and it's worked so well but if you actually figure out how many decisions were made in the history of the daily journal corporation or the history of berkshire hathaway it wasn't very many per year that were meaningful it's a game of being there all the time and recognizing the rare opportunity when it comes and recognizing that the normal human allotment is to not have very many now there's a very confident bunch of people who sell securities who act as though they've got an endless supply of wonderful opportunities well those people are the equivalent of the racetrack tout they're not even respectable it's not a good way to live your life to pretend to know a lot of stuff you don't know and pretend to furnish you a lot of opportunities you're not furnishing and my advice to you is avoid those people but not if you're running a stock brokerage firm you need them but it's not the right way to make money and and this business of controlling the costs and living simply and that was the secret how much money warren and i had tiny little bits of money we always understood our incomes we invested and we well you know if you live long enough you end up rich it's not very complicated and and now there is a part of life which is how do you scramble out of your mistakes without them costing too much and we've done some of that too and if you look at berkshire hathaway think of its founding businesses a doom department store a doom new england textile company a doom trading stamp company out of that came berkshire hathaway now we handled those losing hands pretty well and we bought into them very cheaply but of course the success came from changing our ways and getting into the better businesses and it isn't that we were so good at doing things that were difficult we were good at avoiding things that were difficult hello mr montgomery right uh you speak about the importance of fishing in waters with ample fish uh if you were starting out today what you know sea uh would you be fishing in other than in china of course well other than china but if there's one good place in the world that's more than my share there are others i'm sure but it's hard for me to believe that it can be better for the mongers than china because i can't help you i tell my problem you'll have to sell yours by the way the water's fine in china and some very smart people are waiting in and and due course i think more will weight in the great companies of china are cheaper than the great companies in the united states hi mr monger my friend mikel and i were from barcelona and i have a question for you regarding uh long-term investment and compound interest so i tried to remember if it was your einstein that said that compounded interest was the strongest fourth on earth and on the last few years with very low interest rates out there it's been difficult to find opportunities for having a long-term compound interest based strategy so beyond investing in berkshire and valley investing or index funding where would you invite us to find opportunities for long-term investment where compound interest is really that force well my advice for a seeker of compound interest that works ideally is to reduce your expectations because i think it's going to be tougher for a while and it helps to have realistic expectations makes you less crazy and but i think that you know they say that common stocks from the aftermath of the great depression which was the worst in the english-speaking world in hundreds of years to the present time maybe an index is produced ten percent but that's free inflation after inflation maybe seven percent or something and guessing seven and ten in terms of its consequences they're just hugely dramatic over that long period of time and if that's seven in real terms that may have been achieved starting in a perfect period through the greatest boom in history starting now it could well be three percent or two percent in real terms and it's not unthinkable you'd have five percent returns from three percent inflation or some gasoline consequences like that and so the ideal way to cope with that is to see if it handles if that happens i can have a happy life because why shouldn't you be happy in spite of the fact that the civilization wasn't quite as easy as it was for my generation and now beyond that when it gets more difficult how should you do it well the answer is because it's going to be very difficult you should work at it and if all that gets you is six percent for a lifetime of work instead of five you should be cheerful about it if you want to hit it out of the park easily you should talk to jim cramer hi charlie my name is julia laroche last year we saw a record amount of share repurchases and now we're hearing rhetoric out of washington dc specifically legislation to curb stock buybacks what's your take on stock buybacks and do you think politicians should be telling companies what to do thank you so much well generally speaking i'm restrained in my enthusiasm for politicians telling corporations what they should do but i will say this when it was a very good idea for companies to buy back their stock they didn't do very much and when the stocks got so high priced then it's frequently a bad idea they're doing a lot welcome to adult life this is the way it is but it's questionable at the present levels whether or not it is smart was eddie lambert's hard to buy back so much there's a robot no and a lot of there's a lot of that kind of mistake that's been made
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