저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 래리 핑크는 인플레이션이 더 끈질기게 지속되며 약 4% 수준에서 하한선을 형성할 것이라고 보고, 금리 고점 장기화가 상업용 부동산과 지역은행에 리스크가 될 수 있다고 경고한다. 인플레이션 전망: 지정학적 이슈와 공급망 재편(디글로벌라이제이션, 국가안보 목적의 식량·반도체·에너지 공급망 확보)으로 인해 인플레이션이 더 오래, 높게 유지될 것이라고 주장한다. 최근 5% 대 물가 지표가 시장을 흔들었지만 여전히 4% 하한이라는 전제는 유효하다고 본다. 금리 및 자산 영향: 인플레이션이 높게 유지되면 연준이 금리를 높게 유지하거나 추가 인상할 수 있다고 보며, 이는 특히 상업용 부동산에 부담이다. 상업용 부동산은 지역은행의 주요 보유 자산이라는 점을 강조한다. 최근 몇 주간의 문제는 듀레이션 불일치와 유동성 유출이었고, 아직 신용 문제는 관찰되지 않았지만 고금리 장기화가 향후 신용 품질 악화로 번질 수 있다고 우려한다. 중국 디플레이션 수입론 반박: 중국이 더 이상 디플레이션을 수출하지 않는다고 본다. 인구구조 문제가 심각하고, 비용 상승으로 기업들이 중국을 떠나는 증거가 늘고 있다고 말한다. AI와 생산성: AI가 생산성을 30% 높일 수 있다는 추정에 대해 회의적이며, 이는 결국 같은 일을 더 적은 인원이 하는 것을 의미한다고 해석한다. 재택근무로 최근 3년간 생산성이 오히려 하락했다고 진단하며, 생산성 상승이 인플레이션 상방 압력을 상쇄할지는 불확실하다고 본다. 블랙록 사업 전략: 연기금·보험사·기부금 펀드가 내부 운용 비용을 재검토하면서 아웃소싱이 늘고 있다고 설명한다. 지난 3년간 약 4,000억 달러의 위탁 자금을 유치했고, 아웃소싱 기술 플랫폼 Aladdin의 수요가 금융 불안기에 급증했다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션 장기 고착, 고금리 장기화, 상업용 부동산 및 지역은행 신용 리스크 확대 가능성을 핵심 견해로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
as I said to my CEO letter a few weeks back I believe inflation is going to be stickier for longer in other words I think we're going to have a four-ish percent floor in inflation I think the numbers today kind of reconfirmed that the market got ebbulent over a five percent print down from six but uh you know I you know that still plays into what I think is going to happen and I think a lot of it has to do with geopolitical issues we have moved away from this whole concept of globalization we moved to fragmentation but nobody asked a question if we want to have National Security for food National Security interests for chips and energy no one's asking this essential question at what cost yeah and and so what we are seeing is we're moving more and more Supply chains here but at what cost and I think this is just you know much of this has to do with why I believe inflation is going to be higher this may be the right outcome for National Security I'm not making a value judgment this may be the right thing for our country and other in every other country as we move a supply chain but no one asked a question at what cost and I think these types of policies are going to keep inflation stickier for longer and then if we do believe inflation is higher for longer and if we then see the result that the Federal Reserve has to keep rates higher and possibly tighten a few more times then you have to ask the question what does it do for assets and what does that mean specifically then for commercial real estate and the reason why way to highlight commercial real estate is because that's a dominant asset that Regional Banks own so right now they're the problem that we witnessed over the last six weeks was a duration mismatch for some and a outflow of liquidity we have not seen any credit issues yet the question is going forward it could higher rates for longer could that translate than into more credit quality issues in the future and so that's these are the issues that we have to address I remember and I went back and looked just now it was July of 21 when you came on and said that inflation was going to be more systematical that we were placing jobs over consumerism now that we keep hearing about oh we're importing deflation from China and to the degree we're importing it all or that AI is going to result in huge jumps in productivity is that going to be a material offset to the this new function you're talking about well I don't think China's importing deflation anymore I think if you look at their demographics they have a demographic Time Bomb great better than almost any other country they cannot there is more and more evidence that more and more companies are leaving China because it's an expensive place to uh to be now and so China is no longer that exporter deflation you have that as a fundamental issue um yes AI I've heard estimates that AI could increase productivity by 30 we'll all see I think that's a a muffled way of saying we're going to have fewer people working you know so that's how you're going to reduce productivity is going to have fewer people per job um I think one of the other reasons getting back to productivity uh Carl is I believe we've if you look at the statistics we lost productivity in the last three years whether that is remote working and we had a higher okay exactly David thank you for that you're welcome I like that uh remote working and so we have we we certainly have seen that so um so you said uh AI I think that's going to be the big question related to inflation where are we going to see the Boost in productivity because if we don't that's another reason why we're gonna have stickier inflation well to me I've got to say that if you look at a lot uh which is this is just engine of growth that you have that could be something where you might be looking and say I need I could look for AI but the fact is this big movement is just starting of Outsourcing tensions this is an incredible business these companies what does an airline know how to do about running a pension um good question uh we're seeing more and more Pension funds insurance companies endowments are starting to look at their internal cost of running their pension we have shown we could do it better cheaper and and more systematic over the last three years we've raised 400 billion dollars in Outsourcing of of of portfolios has been public about some of the ones we won whether it's a Royal Mail or a very large U.S pension fund with uh with 300 000 union workers um but the whole Foundation of Aladdin more and more asset owners are replacing their Antiquated technology systems with Aladdin and Aladdin is becoming one of the the most important components and what we saw during the the few weeks of real Financial turmoil we saw a surge in utilization of Aladdin you know you know all our clients were trying to look at what risks do they have and how to manage it and so a another example why Aladdin has proven to be a really good foundational piece and so more Outsourcing of technology and more Outsourcing of the entire as a matter and BlackRock because of our our the foundation of our our organization with technology uh with eye shares and now with FMA all our advisory work we're able to bring that all together in a more comprehensive way
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