저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
그린블랫은 주식투자의 본질을 기업가치 대비 저평가 매수로 정의하고, 버핏식으로 유형자본수익률이 높은 우량 기업을 싸게 사는 전략을 강조한다. 자신의 초기 고수익(연 40~50%)은 6~8개 집중 포트폴리오와 틈새·비주류 기회 탐색에서 나왔으나, 이는 2~3년마다 20~30% 손실을 감내해야 하는 구조였다고 설명한다. 일반 투자자에게는 복리 효과를 활용한 장기·안정적 접근이 현실적이라고 결론짓는다. 구체적 자산에 대한 가격 전망 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
so there's one question around what you were doing in in the first 10 years of investing when I think you average 40 to 50% annual uh gains after fees if if correct me if I'm wrong uh what what was the strategy that you and Rob Goldstein were following in those days and what parts of that are actionable for for the individual investor compared to the index plus strategy you know sure so Stock Investing is figuring out what a business is worth and and paying less and so that hasn't changed what makes a company uh worth something and what makes it cheap relative to that it's pretty straightforward uh we're sort of you know that's sort of Ben Graham figure out what it's worth pay a lot less leave a large margin of safety between those two uh waren Buffett added a a little twist that made him one of the richest people in the world uh he simply said if you can buy a good business cheap even better um if you read through Buffett's letters it's very clear what he's looking for uh first thing he's looking for anyway is uh business business that are in high returns we call it un tangible capital and that just means every business needs working capital every business needs fixed assets how well do it converted working capital fixed assets into earnings so the example I used in the little book which I really wrote to explain these kind of Concepts to my kids I said imagine you're building a store and you have to buy the land build the store set up the display stock it with inventory and all that cost your $400,000 and every year the store spins out $200,000 in profits that's a 50% return on tangible Capital maybe I should open more stores not so many places I can reinvest my money at those rates uh then I compared it to another store remember I wrote this for my kids and I called that store just broccoli it's a store that just sells broccol and it's not a very good idea uh unfortunately stuff to buy the land build the store set up the display stock it with inventory that's still going to cost you roughly $400,000 uh but because it's kind of a stupid idea just to sell broccoli in your store maybe it only earns $10,000 a year that's a 2 and a half% return on tangible capital and all I'd simply say is I'd much prefer to own the business it could reinvest it money all things being equal much prefer to own the business that can reinvest its money at high rates of return than much lower rates of return um and so that's sort of the buffet twist that uh we incorporate uh in the companies that we invest in by being very tough on the way companies uh earn and spend their money uh so we tend to get a a a group of companies that are not only cheap but also uh deploy Capital well and and that's really what we're uh looking for so we've always done that uh the little book was more of a way to systematize that but and you can be a stock market genius which uh you know what did we do in the first 10 years I wrote a book about it it was uh you can be a stock market genius was looking for off the beaten path more complicated uh things that other people weren't looking at something strange or different was going on I showed people nooks and crannies in the market where they could look for those the issue there uh and there is no issue it's a it's a it's a great business but our portfolios were six or eight names we're 80% of our portfolio uh we returned half our Capital uh outside Capital after after 5 years we returned all our outside Capital after 10 years between 85 and 94 we were lucky enough to uh have enough money to keep our staff and continue to run our money uh thereafter uh you know Warren Buffett said the um uh a fat wallet's the enemy of uh High investment returns uh and so when you have a very concentrated portfolio and you're looking off the beaten path where there are kind of smaller situations and things that are more obscure you're very liquidity constrained that's why we kept uh returning money uh but that's not why we're doing what we're doing now uh if you're going to run other people's money uh this is what I'll tell you with a portfolio that has six or eight names that are 80% of your portfolio every two to three years usually within two uh Rob and I uh my partner Rob Goldstein and I would wake up and uh we'd find out we just lost 20 or 30% of our net worth uh and that happened like clockwork every two three years just always happened it has to happen with a concentrated portfolio either because we were wrong on one or two of our picks or uh you know Market they were out of favor for some period of time and maybe it bothered us maybe it didn't if we just had to be patient uh but I would say for outside uh you know when I was talking about people going in and out of funds and and losing the return that is not conducive for other people especially if they're not doing the work it was okay for us uh and I think it was it was it was good for us because we knew what we owned and so as long as the facts hadn't changed and as long as we uh believed in our thesis we we could take that I wouldn't say it was easy but we could take that now our bad days we have short side we're trying to be right on average we're buying cheap good companies we're shorting uh companies that are either destroying capital or losing money or whatever it is and over time that pays off and but our bad days with hundreds of stocks on a side are 20 or 30 basis points of underperformance not 20 30% of our net worth uh and so I think for most people it's a smoother ride and um one of the great lessons that uh young investors a lot of you guys are still very young uh can learn are the compound interest tables you know if you can make mid- teen returns we wouldn't make 40 or 50% annualized returns but in mid teens returns uh if you know compound interest tables you could do very well over uh you know with a smoother ride over a long period of time uh one of the uh uh the best examples when I when I taught those nth graders I actually put on the outside of their notebooks I hand them notebooks and on the outside had a compound interest table and it had the example of uh starting investing uh $2,000 a year when you're 19 uh you know in your IRA until you're 26 uh so seven years of putting away 2000 and never putting another nickel in again or starting when you're 26 and putting in 2000 a year for 40 years until you're 65 so uh the people who put in 2,000 a year from age 19 to 26 and never put in another nickel ended up with more money if you earn 10% a year on that money uh they ended up with more money with those seven payments than the people started 26 and put in 40 payments till they were 65 you end up with more money uh the the 19th to 26 just a very important lesson to learn about starting early I know all of you are over 19 so I'm sorry I didn't tell you this but but these kids these kids weren't and so uh compound interest uh tables are important so uh you're young uh if you if you stay with a very methodical investment strategy that makes sense over time uh you can all still do very very well
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