Rakesh Jhunjhunwala📊 || Chart Reading Strategy

요약 보기

6월 둘째 주 차트 셋업을 복기하며 지지·저항 반복 돌파와 프리미엄 급등락 패턴을 설명. 시장이 횡보하며 옵션 셀러에게 불리하다고 진단하고, 예산일(Budget Day) 이후 하락 방향 가능성이 더 높다고 봄. 대상은 인도 지수 옵션(Nifty/Bank Nifty)으로 목록 자산과 직접 관련된 가격 예측 없음.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. So in this video, I will explain all the setups of the second week of June, what the logic behind them was, and what strategy was used. So watch this video carefully.

02. First of all, let's go to Friday, June 14th. So, what is the first setup formed on this day? As soon as the market opens, for no reason, it shows a fall. After that, what does the market do? It tests resistance once but does not go down. The second time it tests resistance, it does not go down. It tests resistance a third time too, but does not go down.

03. But if the market is going to fall, keep in mind that whether it is going to fall or rise, it will bounce once or twice immediately. This means it is now asking retail traders to come in, so we could have made an entry here.

04. Okay, what does the market do after that? After forming a green candle again, it shows a fall again to shake out the retail traders, but it does not fall. The second time it shows a fall, it does not fall either, and the third time it forms a W and goes up. This is something to keep in mind if the market is going to move in one direction at once.

05. The second time, it moves down, forming a large base. It immediately touches this level, then stops, and then goes down. We have to observe this behavior and write it down in our notebook. After that, we could have made a trade here, because I explained the concept that the market tries to return to the place it fell from. And why does the market do this to form a pending trade? Because those who sold from here will have their stop losses at least up to this point. They will exit only when the market reaches this point again.

06. Okay, so what does the market do after this? It stays sideways the whole day. There is no setup, no proper setup all day. And such a premium is very dangerous. If you want a setup for scalping, you can get trapped in it.

07. So, what is the market doing? It is holding support. After breaking the day's high, the day's high is broken. Retail traders are coming in, trying to shake everyone out on a breakout. Okay, so we could have made an entry here, but we will have to make a quick entry and a quick exit. Because as long as the premium behaves like this, the market is going to cause a lot of problems.

08. After Budget Day, if the market takes a direction, either permanently upward or downward, and the chances favor a downward trend. If the market takes a direction, it will move downward, forming a structure like this. However, if a setup is cleverly formed and there is movement in the premium, then it's fine; otherwise, I will have to endure this.

09. What does the market do here? By taking resistance at the day's high, the market is calling sellers to sell, sell, and sell again and again. From here, at resistance, there is a very sharp spike in the premium all at once, at the breakout. And if I check the premium chart, the spike here is very dangerous. A premium of at least two is reached in 202 seconds, within two minutes.

10. Now let's move on to Thursday's setup. What setups are formed on Thursday? This is a real danger sign. If the market behaves like this as soon as it opens, no proper setup is forming. If this were happening, I would first enter here with my capital. Okay, I would observe the premium's behavior. I would ignore it and try to exit immediately. If I didn't see normal behavior in the premium, then what would I do? I would sit and observe the market. Are setups forming like this?

11. So what is the market doing? It's moving sideways. It keeps falling all day. Red, green, red, green candles are not forming in any direction. So I would try to avoid this day, because this day is the cause of real losses. The setups that form don't work. This has to be observed. You have to be an option buyer, an option buyer. Right now, the timing is not working. It will come again, once India VIX reaches a high and something happens on Budget Day.

12. Okay, then comes this day. What does the market do on this day? It's June 12th. And this is probably the Bank Nifty expiry day. Yes, what does the market do on the Bank Nifty expiry day? It comes down. What does it do after that? It starts moving sideways, starts consolidating, then gives a breakout here and goes straight up.

13. Let me tell you, if you had to enter here, this is a danger sign for entry, because the market is in the air. Such setups are forming in the air. This is a good setup, but it is forming in the air. It has a specific point, which, if it had formed here, would have been good for going up. But where did it form? After going up, it does this and this. Okay, after that the market directly crossed the day's high. I can tell you from my experience, whenever the market directly crosses the day's high, it definitely makes a spike, a very good downside spike. At least it makes a spike down to this point.

14. I avoided entry at this point. After that, my entry was at this point, and I entered here, but the premium did not increase at all. Then I had to look for a lot of sell-side entries here, but not a single sell-side entry happened here. Then again I made a very big red candle here, because I knew this: if the market directly crosses the day's high, retail traders come in. To shake them out, the market definitely shows some behavior. After that it remained sideways the whole day. There is a lot of loss in the premium because no setup works; the market just stays sideways. This has to be observed. It is a very dangerous sign.

15. Anyway, option traders: if any setup forms after 12:30, or after 11:30 or 12:30, it forms at 2:46 pm, at 2:26 pm, and at 3 pm. These are the three rarest chances. Very few setups form at that time for option buyers.

16. Now let's go straight to Monday. Tuesday was probably a holiday, so if we go to Monday, the market's behavior was very bad on Monday too. Look here: there was a straight fall, then a strange consolidation, and it spikes. While spikes are hitting, an option seller cannot even enter here. In such a spike, the option seller's loss is very sharp. Then it fell from here, and then it started going up from here. If the market had consolidated here and broken out, it would have made a perfect entry and continued a little longer. But after that I entered here, booked a profit of ₹1,500, and exited, because I sensed risk here. The way the premium was behaving, what does the market do after that? It comes down again. After breaking the day's high, as I said, it spikes downward and then consolidates upward. But after a single candle, it remains sideways the whole day and moves slowly all day.

17. So this is an option seller's market. As long as this continues, there will be some risk in the market. Perhaps after the budget day, the market will regain its direction, either up or down. The chances of a downward move are higher. If it takes the downward direction, you will get good trades.