저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금 가격 급등 가능성과 그 기저 논리는 다음과 같다. 결론: 연준의 인플레이션 억제 의지가 과장된 블러프라고 보고, 다음 QE가 달러를 붕괴시키며 금·은이 폭등한다고 주장한다. 채권시장 진단: 9% 인플레이션 대비 30년물 국채금리 3%는 시장이 인플레가 곧 잡힐 것으로 착각하는 것이며, 이는 금시장도 같은 오류를 범하고 있다는 논리다. 금·은 전망: 1970년대 금은 35달러에서 850달러로 상승했고 현재 사이클 위치는 1980년보다 1970년대에 가깝다고 본다. 은은 1970년대 달러화 은화 가격 상승(약 50배)을 근거로 장기 폭등을 예상하나 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않았다. 금리 정책 평가: 연준 기준금리 2.25~2.5%는 인플레이션 대비 실질금리가 -6%로 극도로 완화적이며, 긴축이라면 금리가 인플레를 웃돌아야 한다고 주장한다. 긴축 시 시나리오: 연준이 볼커식으로 금리와 대차대조표를 축소하면 금리 급등으로 주식(밸류에이션 붕괴)과 주택시장이 붕괴하고, 정부 부채 상환 불능으로 디폴트와 사회보장·메디케어 삭감이 뒤따른다고 본다. 결론적 판단: 연준이 옳은 일을 할 가능성은 0에 가깝고, 결국 다음 QE가 금 상승의 촉매가 된다는 입장이다. 주식시장은 금리 상승 시 붕괴 가능성을 언급했으나 구체적 시점은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
I think the next round of a QE is going to be the overdose that finally kills the dollar and sets off a sovereign debt crisis and sends gold and silver prices you know to the Moon if you also look at the bond market you can see the answer I mean look at a 30-year U.S treasury it's yielding three percent now inflation is nine percent why would somebody loan the U.S government money for 30 years at three percent well they must believe that that nine percent inflation is going to go away very quickly and that the average rate of inflation over the next 30 Years will be maybe two percent which means there's a one percent yield although why anybody would take a one percent return over 30 years that makes no sense either but it's clear that the bond market is confident that inflation is going to go away I think the gold market is making the same mistake gold Traders are looking at the fed's commitment to fighting inflation and they believe that they've got the resolve that they're going to do it that they're going to get rid of inflation and they're going to do it with high interest rates which are going to be a headwind for gold and if gold is an inflation hedge and there's no inflation to hedge because the FED is committed to get rid of it well that's what's keeping the price of gold down but when investors in both markets both the bond market and the metals markets understand that this is all talk it's a bluff that the FED is not going to be able to fight inflation because the the severity of the rate hikes that would actually be required because what they've done so far is wholly insufficient the type of monetary policy that would actually be required to get rid of inflation is never going to happen and of course we're never going to have get rid of inflation without the cooperation of the government the government has to substantially cut government spending and that's never going to happen they're going to keep on increasing government spending so when the markets figure out that this is all a ruse that inflation is not going away it's here to stay and it's going to be much much higher than two percent uh maybe even double digits as far as the eye can see the bond market is going to implode and the gold market is going to explode right bond prices are going to crash and Gold's going to soar but the reason that's not happening now is because investors don't get it they just do not understand the predicament that the economy is in they they don't understand the position that the Federal Reserve is in and they are overestimating the fed's ability to do what they claim they're going to do and you know I don't know why everything the FED has said is been wrong every forecast they've made has been wrong yet they still have credibility but if you go back to the 1970s gold started the decade at 35 an ounce and it ended at around 850.
now think about that percentage gain that is enormous now the reason that gold stopped going up in early 1980s was because of volcker and those 20 interest rates well we're nowhere close to that right now I mean gold is closer to 1970 than 1980 as far as where it is in the cycle uh and so this is going to be an explosive rally that will rival the percentage gains I think of the 1970s and uh that is just enormous if you're talking about silver I mean silver was really about a dollar an ounce in um 1970 you know a silver dollar was worth a dollar that's about an ounce of silver you know and those silver dollars were trading for like 50 bucks a piece by the peak in 1980 it was a 50-fold increase in in the price of silver what's you know what would what would happen to Silver if you took it up 55 50 times here Silver's at 20.
you know what thousand dollars silver to have uh something to rival what happened in 1970 so look there's a long way for these metals to go and everything that's happening now is just noise as we're bouncing along the bottom rates are still much too low they've got rates at two and a quarter to two and a half well that might have been okay when inflation was one and three quarters but what inflation is nine percent how do you justify interest rates of two and a quarter I mean that's you know less than a third of the inflation rate you've got negative six percent real yields that is a highly stimulative highly inflationary monetary policy the FED needs to move to Tight money well Tight money means that interest rates are higher than the inflation rate and we're not even close to that so we're not going to fight an inflation Fire by pouring gasoline on it but that's what the FED is actually doing well obviously if the Federal Reserve did the right thing the way it did the right thing under Paul volcker and just got out of the bond market started to really shrink its balance sheet not just talk about it but actually did it and started to withdraw all this liquidity that it supplied into the economy erroneously we start to really shrink the money supply and let interest rates go up interest rates are going to go way up like they did in the 1980s and when that happens stock prices have to collapse because stock prices are a function of interest rates the higher interest rates the lower stocks are worth you're discounting the the future value of their income meanwhile the country is so levered up with debt if consumers and businesses have to spend more money to pay interest on what they borrowed they have less money to buy stuff now I mean so earnings are going to implode valuations are going to get killed so the stock market is going to completely implode If the Fed does the right thing the same thing with the real estate market if mortgage rates are double-digit home prices have to collapse nobody can afford to buy a home at the current price with double-digit uh mortgages so the prices have to come down to where anybody can buy because at the margin that's where home prices are set that it's what can somebody afford to pay for that house and if interest mortgage rates are 12 14 you know like they were in the early 80s you know how low does a home have to be priced before an American can actually afford to buy one so what's going to happen if the FED allows interest rates to go way up the government's going to have to default it's going to have to default on Treasury bonds can you imagine the financial crisis when the government doesn't pay its obligations the government would actually have to default on a lot of obligations and have to cut Social Security have to cut Medicare see all these terrible things are going to happen if the FED does the right thing which is why I think there's zero chance the FED is going to do the right thing it's going to do the wrong thing again because it's always done the wrong thing except this time it's going to be the end of line for the FED they can't kick this can down the road anymore I think the next round of a QE is going to be the overdose that finally kills the dollar and sets a sovereign debt crisis and sends gold and silver prices you know to the moon the levels of debt throughout the economy are unprecedented compared to 1980 back in 1980 the U.S economy was still a creditor Nation now we're the world's biggest debtor Nation we were still running trade surpluses in 1980 not record trade deficits debt to GDP I forget what it was maybe down like 40 percent or something like that now it's like 120 percent uh we're not in a position to do the right thing I mean we are but only with far more adverse consequences than what we suffered in the early 1980s and I just don't think there's the political will anywhere in Washington including the Federal Reserve to allow that to happen
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