저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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2024년 NVDA와 AMD를 매출·현금흐름·ROIC·밸류에이션(포워드 PE, DCF)으로 비교. 엔비디아가 매출 약 5배, 영업현금흐름 격차 등 전 지표에서 우위이며, 포워드 PE는 엔비디아 30 vs AMD 25로 큰 차이 없음. 자체 DCF상 두 종목 모두 저평가이나 엔비디아의 괴리율이 더 큼. 2025년엔 AMD 성장률이 나을 수 있으나 최종 선택은 엔비디아.
다듬은 글
Nvidia has handedly beat AMD this year in terms of performance in revenue and profitability and performance in stock price but I'm hearing many investors discuss that AMD could be better than Nvidia in 2025 in terms of stock price performance put them head-to-head and video against AMD on several critical Financial metrics including Revenue cash flow profitability and compare their valuations on a forward price to earnings basis and on a discounted cash flow valuation basis for Nvidia stock and for AMD stock I'll put all of that together and answer which one I think is the better stock to buy for 2025 I want to thank the mly yy now let's start with a revenue comparison looking back a decade you'll notice that Nvidia started to break away from AMD back around 2017 around 2016 they were very close in Revenue in fact in 2015 I would say AMD could have been ahead but looking ahead here in 2024 in the trailing 12- Monon period Nvidia generated roughly five times the revenue of AMD That's How Strong strong its outperformance has been from a near tie against AMD seven years ago to now being 5x more than AMD and this has been primarily organic Improvement right this hasn't been a you know massive acquisition that the company made that allowed it to grow this much faster than AMD it's not because of an acquisition it's because of the research and development the products that came out of research and devel velopment that drove nvidia's business to these Heights and now AMD is trying to catch up AMD is trying to play catchup and next year I don't think it's going to be the case I think AMD will have a better year in terms of Revenue growth in 2025 but it won't be I don't think in terms better than Nvidia amd's product for the data center The Accelerated GPU it's gaining market share but slowly Nvidia still has an estimated over 80% market share in the data center accelerated GPU space AMD along with Intel and then Amazon Microsoft and alphabet with their custom designed chips they're gaining market share but slowly and primarily because of uh other factors not so much based on the effectiveness of the product number one the reason why AMD is gaining market share is because corporations and Enterprises that are buying nvidia's products they don't want to rely only on Nvidia they don't want envidia to have 95% market share here because that's too much power for one company who can extract premium prices they want to diversify their supply chain and so they'll give AMD an opportunity they'll give Intel an opportunity they'll give these custom chips from Amazon Microsoft and alphabet an opportunity because they don't want to rely solely on Nvidia and so that's the primary reason why AMD is gaining market share in this space not because its chip performs any better than Nvidia in fact it's way worse than envidia chip but it will gain market share primarily because of that factor because corporations that are buying these products they're going to want to diversify and not just be on Nvidia so not only is NVIDIA outperforming in Revenue growth it's also outperforming even more so in cash flow from operations look at this surge here and how much better Nvidia is compared to AMD in terms of cash flow from operations 59 billion in the trailing 12 months compared to 2 billion for AMD now again 2025 will be better for AMD and so it'll close the gap somewhat from this distance but it won't approach anywhere near AMD has four segments that it reports on two of them are growing and two of them are declining the one of the two that's declining will improve next year and that's the personal computer space that's likely to rebound next year although its gaming business is not likely to rebound it's likely to continue being down maybe it might recover since this year was so bad and comparing to such a bad year is easier to demonstrate growth but in terms of catalysts for that segment to increase there aren't any obvious catalysts for that segment Nvidia and AMD are competing in that gaming Market too they're competing in the data center AI market and they're also competing in the gaming market for computers they both sell those gpus that go into computers for gaming purposes and for editing and for some high-intensive Computing use cases Nvidia is winning that battle as well so Nvidia likely to continue generating excellent cash flows its products are selling at premium prices and it's selling out so it can continue generating premium prices AMD meanwhile is just struggling for scraps and it will will get a lift because the overall industry the Tailwind is so strong that AMD will get a lift because of that in the data center Market I forgot to mention the second reason why AMD will gain market share in the data center AI space I mentioned the first reason it's because companies want to diversify away from nvidia's chips the second reason is that Nvidia cannot keep up with demand Nvidia is sold out so there's excess demand the growth in this market is so massive that Nvidia cannot even keep up even though it's surging as it is and so there's going to be leftovers for AMD because of that excess demand they will go to AMD for its products now these comparisons make AMD look so bad but it's not that AMD is bad it's just that Nvidia is so so strong that it makes nearly every other company you compare it with look pale when it's compared to Nvidia similar story when you look at return on invested capital Nvidia way ahead of AMD now amd's return on invested Capital will improve it will improve I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches 30 40 50% over the next 24 months and I wouldn't be surprised if nvidia's return on invested Capital comes back down to reality a bit at least to 80 70 or 60% I don't expect it can generate over 100% in return on invested capital for any extended period of time so let's look at valuation now we saw Nvidia clearly outperforms AMD and I can share with you a multitude of more characteristics a multitude more financial characteristics Financial metrics and Nvidia with beat AMD and then you look at the valuation on a forward PE basis and uh Nvidia is hardly that much more expensive Nvidia is trading at a forward PE of 30 AMD is at a forward PE of 25 so Nvidia is not that much more expensive that's one way to look at evaluation another way I look at it is a discounted cash flow and according to my DCF of Nvidia stock the intrinsic value per share is 314 and the current market price is 134 so a significant undervaluation suggested by this discounted cash flow model for NVIDIA I did the same thing for AMD and it also shows 180 the current market price is 127 so undervaluation but not as large as Nvidia so what's my conclusion first of all let me say I like both of these stocks Nvidia and AMD have been on my list of top stocks to buy all year in 2024 and I have AMD and Nvidia still rated as a buy but if I had to pick only one of them for 2025 and Beyond I would pick Nvidia ch
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