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ne ment educating teachers so call me 1-800-743-cmc or tweet me at jim kramer another day another rally where stocks frankly go up on nothing the dow gaining 251 points smp jumping 1.64 the nasdaq screaming higher finishing up 2.56 sometimes stocks deserve to go up on nothing but it still seems a little quizzical to see stocks levitate like they're doing here now there are three main ways that stocks do go higher you can have better than expected earnings all right let me know understand that second you have what we call self-help that could be selling your business breaking it up third hype number never mind we call it motorbooks expansion business meaning we're paying more basically for the same level of earnings or story betting that someone else will take it off our hands for a price that's still higher okay some people call it the greater fool theory multiple expansion is what we saw today when wall street got hyped about the best of the best look at what let us hire start with apple okay and it's always fun to start with apple because you know how much i like it about you you follow apple i follow out apple we all know that they launch a new phone tomorrow and you got to be under a rock not to it's the ultimate non-event event because new iphones come out like clockwork so everyone has it on the calendar we all know what's going to happen we know there'll be a mix of positives and negatives about size weight cost color that always is the case even with 5g in it and then we end up buying it of course it's almost a dog bites man's story yet that didn't stop webbush's dan ives nice person publishing a piece titled the grand entrance for iphone 12 begins cook kicks off super cycle tuesday he calls it the most important launch in six years before describing it as a once in a decade product launch he points to stepped up demand for components for the larger version which is true we know that from mar-vell we know that by the way skyworks solutions will probably have an upside surprise and uh he says that china's the linchpin of this whole thesis again dog bites man let me read you uh one uh let's say uh pertinent snippet quote cooking company have the stage set for a super cycle product release which should drive shares further in our opinion and quote well well well a super cycle huh listen when you call something a supercycle you're going to catch people's attention unfortunately i'm superstitious about super cycles that words the ultimate jinx we heard about the cole super cycle in 2011 right before the entire colonist street crashed and burned it was a once in a lifetime collapse in october 2014 morgan stanley called for a fracking sand super cycle that was almost exactly where the price of oil peaked kicking off a multi-year meltdown to sand fracking or fracking sand or whatever so when this analyst talks about an iphone uh super cycle i feel like he's tempting fate that said you know i like apple i think you should own it not trade it but people are going to buy it today and they're going to sell it tomorrow because it didn't go higher again we've seen this time and again the bar has now been set so high going to the launch that there's a good chance apple will disappoint today's buyers the darn thing rallied more than six percent today talk about great expectations siri will the stock go still higher here's what i found quizzical then there's amazon which jumped almost five percent unless you're living under rock you know tomorrow's amazon prime day which is actually two days this year go figure that out right we're in a pandemic we know there's going to be a ton of shopping but why not wait but that's not how john black legend talents these things today he jumped the gun and gave you a preview that's outrageously bullish on prime day and the extended holiday shopping he's expecting a demand surge which suggests a permanence to shifting consumer behavior yeah i know i know like today you have to say it do you have to say it today i mean again there's nothing wrong with this piece it's just that it brings nothing new to the table because everybody kind of knows this stuff already personally i think it'd be better to say nothing because now the stock is worth ahead and it'll be harder for amazon to live up to the prime day hype and you can see some of these analysts saying downgrading uh trimming numbers doing something negative because they're let down by prime day that's the kind of stuff that happens on wall street next up have you noticed that the stocks of google and facebook have been lagging their smaller competitors like snap or pinterest well lloyd walmsley at deutsche bank noticed and that's why he's pounding the table on both winners today sending them soaring moms he says he prefers google because it's been a laggard even as facebook has a big fourth quarter e-commerce product cycle though he still recommends buying them both now just like with apple and amazon i mostly agree with this guy i like google which is up only 17 for the year but it has a habit of disappointing investors when it reports i was hoping that for once the expectations would be low enough to be easily beaten with this kind of hype that's a lot less likely honestly i'm hoping the government breaks up google's parent company alphabet because i think the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole i'll google cloud waymo youtube searching the health business they'll all be better off as standalone companies one of the few cases where overzealous antitrust enforcement could actually benefit shareholders as for facebook i love the shops initiative that's boosting small and medium-sized businesses have you noticed how much of the heat's died down since facebook became an e-commerce facilitator i think it's bought the company a ton of goodwill to be with small and medium-sized businesses that said there's nothing in this research report that boosts numbers it's just hype i don't know about you but i was already hyped about facebook i'm a little less hyped with the stock up four percent today how about another piece by deutsche bank you know taylor mcginnis there's a great name taylor mcguinness talk about microsoft cloud business uh azure and quote the checks came back more mixed on deal activity and that made me nervous but then mcginnis says not to worry given the durability and fundamental strength of microsoft and tailwinds from the work from home phenomena we continue to be able to weather the storm better than most of its sales software peers and we remain bullish hey i like microsoft too but the only actual news in this piece was negative doesn't matter stock rally 2.6 percent look i don't want to pick one deutsche bank today but the truth is uh is it was responsible for a great deal of the tech rally wamsley the guy who likes facebook and google also recommended twitter with the catchy phrase come fly with me this is written code written by sinatra upgrade to buy and raising tp that's target price by the way not toilet paper now i always love sami khan but i never expected one of his songs would work into the into an upgrade this piece openly acknowledges that it's what we call a re-rate meaning twitter's finally starting to get respect for its turnaround the analyst doesn't want to miss the vote when you see re-rate that's also code for it's the same company but now people are starting to pay for it more than they used to again not wrong i've been saying twitter's radically undervalued for ages it's nice to see someone else acknowledge that but the stock surged five percent today without another upgrade that kind of move will prove to be unsustainable now it's not all tech wendy nicholson one of my absolute favorite animals top play overt city upgrades pepsico from hold to buy i read through the note it's one of those pieces that says enough with the stocks under performance it's gotten too cheap versus the rest of the group the title is literally after five years of relative underperformance we think now is the time to buy pep she gives it 169 price dollar target and it's better than stock we'll play catch up give me some knowledge about performance me i don't want relative app performance i want absolute performance and i'm not getting it from this piece even though once again i mostly agree with nicholson which is why we own pepsico from my chapel trust bottom line today's rally really was based on hope and hype not new facts can we go higher sure but these prices are thin reads that make me want to pull my horns when everyone starts agreeing with you and they agree with me on every one of these calls but much higher well that's when you need to get more cautious not more exuberant [Musi
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